Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
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Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
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Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
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Tuesday…</li>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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At 2.6% q/q SAAR,<a href="https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2018/pdf/gdp4q17_adv.pdf" target="_blank"> the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP</a> was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look. Private-sector domestic demand (what maters most for equities) in fact surged on some measures at its fastest pace in over a decade. Booming domestic demand sucking in imports at close to their fastest pace in a decade was the dominant factor crimping headline growth. 
The key metric to focus on in the GDP report is final sales to private domestic…
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At 2.6% q/q SAAR, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look. Private-sector domestic demand (what maters most for equities) in fact surged on some measures at its fastest pace in over a decade. Booming domestic demand sucking in imports at close to their fastest pace in a decade was the dominant factor crimping headline growth. 
The key metric to focus on in the GDP report is final sales to private domestic…


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined. Any USD rise is unlikely to provide major headwinds for EM equities until we clear the 92 handle.Macro Euro cycle peak target outlined in the weekly chart.Top bets to front run a DXY low are seen in TRY, BRL, AUD and GBP. We are taking off our USD/SGD short within our Asian transition scenario.USD downside looks limited as down trends in Asia lose bear momentum/conviction as bull divergence takes shape. Can weaker Asian FX turn ahead or a DXY low? The Peso is leading the USD bull turn making the SGD more vulnerable. Korea's Won chart decline is maturing. MYR and CNH long vs the dollar still have more gas.A domino USD bottoming cycle is due in February with a backfill and re test touted into March which should complete an intermediate equity peak, commodity peak and USD low.

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After remaining surprisingly subdued for much of last year, US inflation is finally accelerating. There are of course a plethora of underlying or 'core' inflation gauges but one of the best and most important to track is <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/median-cpi.aspx" target="_blank">the Cleveland Fed's median CPI estimate</a>.
This measure tracks the sub-component of the CPI basket whose monthly gain is in the middle of each month's distribution. By construction, the noisy 'wings' of the CPI are stripped out, leaving a cleaner 'signal' of core inflationary…
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After remaining surprisingly subdued for much of last year, US inflation is finally accelerating. There are of course a plethora of underlying or 'core' inflation gauges but one of the best and most important to track is the Cleveland Fed's median CPI estimate.
This measure tracks the sub-component of the CPI basket whose monthly gain is in the middle of each month's distribution. By construction, the noisy 'wings' of the CPI are stripped out, leaving a cleaner 'signal' of core inflationary…


Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

DXY is missing a leg down.  It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels in Q2.Eventual weakness of that degree is supported by the Euro and Sterling crosses.The Yen is less clear, but one scenario allows for a drop below 105.

DXY is missing a leg down.  It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels in Q2.Eventual weakness of that degree is supported by the Euro and Sterling crosses.The Yen is less clear, but one scenario allows for a drop below 105.

US Dollar: DXY Headed Below 88; with a Little Help from the Yen?

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Chart of the Day: What Lies Beneath

At 2.6% q/q SAAR, the advance estimate of US Q4 GDP was superficially disappointing but the more the data are dug into, the better they look....

Richard Iley

USD Short to Long Transition Cycle

DXY bear call from 101 is nearing our macro target at 88.50 where we see at least an intermediate rally cycle unfolding. DXY roadmap is outlined....

Thomas Schroeder

Chart of the Day: That 2008 Feeling....

After remaining surprisingly subdued for much of last year, US inflation is finally accelerating. There are of course a plethora of underlying or...

Richard Iley

US Dollar: DXY Headed Below 88; with a Little Help from the Yen?

DXY is missing a leg down. It has two targets just below 88, but may trade sideways in broadly a 91-95 range before breaking down to those levels...

Peter Beuttell

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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