Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Just as Trump's participation in the G7 summit in Canada was overshadowed by his then-imminent summit with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Trump's participation in the NATO summit will be overshadowed by the US-Russia summit that will follow it (to be held in Helsinki on 16th July). The summit is a triumph for Putin, crowning his steady undermining of the EU, where he now has a quartet of strong allies -- Italy, Austria, Greece and Hungary -- who advocate the scrapping of EU sanctions on Russia over…

Just as Trump's participation in the G7 summit in Canada was overshadowed by his then-imminent summit with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Trump's participation in the NATO summit will be overshadowed by the US-Russia summit that will follow it (to be held in Helsinki on 16th July). The summit is a triumph for Putin, crowning his steady undermining of the EU, where he now has a quartet of strong allies -- Italy, Austria, Greece and Hungary -- who advocate the scrapping of EU sanctions on Russia over…

Putin's Assembly of Allies (Trump, Kurz, Salvini, Tsipras) Subverts the G7-NATO Led World Order

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Technical Analysis

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bul / Technical Analysis

DXY is ending a 5-wave rally off the February low.  For clearer completion, we need to see a smaller 5-waver up from the 14th June low finish off properly, and in doing so it should make targets at 95.87-97.52.  A 3-5 point correction should follow, and bearish divergence is forming in the weekly and daily indicators to confirm that risk.However, if we are left with a clear 5-waver of about 8 points up from 88, it would suggest at least one more rally leg to come, possibly two.  If the latter…

DXY is ending a 5-wave rally off the February low.  For clearer completion, we need to see a smaller 5-waver up from the 14th June low finish off properly, and in doing so it should make targets at 95.87-97.52.  A 3-5 point correction should follow, and bearish divergence is forming in the weekly and daily indicators to confirm that risk.However, if we are left with a clear 5-waver of about 8 points up from 88, it would suggest at least one more rally leg to come, possibly two.  If the latter…

US Dollar:  Rally from February Is in Its Later Stages

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Our domino USD bull call that started with the TRY and rolled into BRL then the ZAR and now RUB is unfolding as expected. More importantly, we have maintained and stepped up long USD positioning in Asia where we are seeing this domino spill over into the SGD and KRW (fresh macro breakout signal).USD/SGD chart denotes a higher momentum move toward 1.37 once it clears 1.3550 (minor rest first) which represents the medium term pivot resistance. We link STI pressures to the SGD as the STI tests the…

Our domino USD bull call that started with the TRY and rolled into BRL then the ZAR and now RUB is unfolding as expected. More importantly, we have maintained and stepped up long USD positioning in Asia where we are seeing this domino spill over into the SGD and KRW (fresh macro breakout signal).USD/SGD chart denotes a higher momentum move toward 1.37 once it clears 1.3550 (minor rest first) which represents the medium term pivot resistance. We link STI pressures to the SGD as the STI tests the…

Macroeconomics

As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, base money is declining and broad money supply (M2) has been rising at an anaemic 3.5-4.5% YoY pace for the past half year. Yesterday, the FOMC signalled an even more hawkish stance, with the dot plot forecasting 2 more rate hikes this year and 3 in 2019, and the removal of 6-year-old language about the Funds rate remaining below its expected long-run rate. Powell also acknowledged that fiscal policy is very stimulative. The tightening of monetary conditions…

As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, base money is declining and broad money supply (M2) has been rising at an anaemic 3.5-4.5% YoY pace for the past half year. Yesterday, the FOMC signalled an even more hawkish stance, with the dot plot forecasting 2 more rate hikes this year and 3 in 2019, and the removal of 6-year-old language about the Funds rate remaining below its expected long-run rate. Powell also acknowledged that fiscal policy is very stimulative. The tightening of monetary conditions…

Fed's Hawkish Hike: Curve-Flattening Recession Risks Remain Despite the Slight Cut in the IOER

Risk correlations and post summit pivots<div style="text-align: left;">We wanted to refresh near term risk points as we attempt to coordinate a USD/JPY top, bond price low, USD low and VIX low as noted below with S&amp;P 2,800 tactical fade level. We remain bullish equities but see risk of profit taking on the back of the North Korea/US summit given the G-7 poor outcome.</div><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/054/941/original/SUMMIT%20RISK%20FOUR.png?1528786670" data-smartkarma-image-id="54941"></figure>USD/JPY - Closed half our recent short at 109.40 yesterday and hit our trailing stop on our 111.30 short at 110.30. We are now flat and looking to sell a spike…
</div>

Risk correlations and post summit pivotsWe wanted to refresh near term risk points as we attempt to coordinate a USD/JPY top, bond price low, USD low and VIX low as noted below with S&amp;P 2,800 tactical fade level. We remain bullish equities but see risk of profit taking on the back of the North Korea/US summit given the G-7 poor outcome.
USD/JPY - Closed half our recent short at 109.40 yesterday and hit our trailing stop on our 111.30 short at 110.30. We are now flat and looking to sell a spike…


Post Summit Hurdles, Pivot Levels and Path to S&P 2,960

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

Price Gauge
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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Putin's Assembly of Allies (Trump, Kurz, Salvini, Tsipras) Subverts the G7-NATO Led World Order

Just as Trump's participation in the G7 summit in Canada was overshadowed by his then-imminent summit with Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Trump's...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US Dollar: Rally from February Is in Its Later Stages

DXY is ending a 5-wave rally off the February low. For clearer completion, we need to see a smaller 5-waver up from the 14th June low finish off...

Peter Beuttell

Broader USD Strength in Asia

Our domino USD bull call that started with the TRY and rolled into BRL then the ZAR and now RUB is unfolding as expected. More importantly, we have...

Thomas Schroeder

Fed's Hawkish Hike: Curve-Flattening Recession Risks Remain Despite the Slight Cut in the IOER

As the Fed's balance sheet shrinks, base money is declining and broad money supply (M2) has been rising at an anaemic 3.5-4.5% YoY pace for the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Post Summit Hurdles, Pivot Levels and Path to S&P 2,960

Risk correlations and post summit pivotsWe wanted to refresh near term risk points as we attempt to coordinate a USD/JPY top, bond price low, USD...

Thomas Schroeder

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)