IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a> has offered, Potentia, four weeks of due diligence access to “develop a significantly improved proposal.” The Board rejected Potentia’s previous A$1.60 offer on 12 December.</li>
<li>Since the rejection of the offer, the FY2023 guidance has been upgraded and peers have re-rated. Therefore, Potentia can afford to be more generous with its terms. </li>
<li>Press reports suggest that an offer of around A$1.85 per share would be supported by shareholders. We would be buyers as Tyro is undervalued at the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Tyro Payments (TYR AU) has offered, Potentia, four weeks of due diligence access to “develop a significantly improved proposal.” The Board rejected Potentia’s previous A$1.60 offer on 12 December.
Since the rejection of the offer, the FY2023 guidance has been upgraded and peers have re-rated. Therefore, Potentia can afford to be more generous with its terms. 
Press reports suggest that an offer of around A$1.85 per share would be supported by shareholders. We would be buyers as Tyro is undervalued at the last close price.


Tyro Payments (TYR AU): Bid Revived as Potentia Secures Due Diligence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>After Potentia bumped indicative terms to A$1.60/share last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>'s board considered the revised terms remained below what is considered fair, and has ceased all discussions.</li>
<li>Following discussions between Tyro and Potentia, the Tyro Board is now providing Potentia with a 4-week period of due diligence to "enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal".</li>
<li>No indicative price was mentioned. Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures was open to a competing proposal of A$1.85/share. </li>
</ul>


After Potentia bumped indicative terms to A$1.60/share last month, Tyro Payments (TYR AU)'s board considered the revised terms remained below what is considered fair, and has ceased all discussions.
Following discussions between Tyro and Potentia, the Tyro Board is now providing Potentia with a 4-week period of due diligence to "enable Potentia to develop a significantly improved proposal".
No indicative price was mentioned. Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures was open to a competing proposal of A$1.85/share. 


<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alliance-aviation-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20401:1" rel="noopener">Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">21Vianet Group (VNET US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chip-eng-seng-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6441:1" rel="noopener">Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/conexio-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19064:1" rel="noopener">Conexio Corp (9422 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elmo-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24342:1" rel="noopener">Elmo Software (ELO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), Genesis Minerals (GMD AU), 111 Inc (YI US), Origin Energy (ORG AU).
Lowest spreads - Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP), Conexio Corp (9422 JP), Elmo Software (ELO AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (02 Jan) - Toyo Construction, Origin Energy, Warrego, Nitro, Fengxiang

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.</li>
<li>Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> at the close on 4 January following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> in-specie distribution.</li>
<li>We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.</li>
</ul>


The Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) rebalance was implemented at the close on Friday and there were a bunch of review cutoffs on the same day.
Passive Hang Seng trackers need to sell Meituan (3690 HK) at the close on 4 January following Tencent (700 HK) in-specie distribution.
We take a look at flows to Asian focused ETFs over the course of 2022. A lot of winners in terms of AUM, but a few losers too.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: Meituan, S&P/ASX All Tech, 2022 ETF Flows

Temple & Webster Group Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure updates will lead to changes to the S&amp;P/ASX All Technology Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>To better reflect the GICS changes and reduce constituent turnover, S&amp;P DJI has proposed changes to the index universe for constituent selection.</li>
<li>We expect there will be 4 deletions from the index in March, but that could increase to 10 if the changes are not adopted.</li>
</ul>


Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure updates will lead to changes to the S&amp;P/ASX All Technology Index at the March rebalance.
To better reflect the GICS changes and reduce constituent turnover, S&amp;P DJI has proposed changes to the index universe for constituent selection.
We expect there will be 4 deletions from the index in March, but that could increase to 10 if the changes are not adopted.


S&P/ASX All Technology Index: GICS Changes, Market Consultation & Potential Index Changes

Australia

Tyro Payments provides transaction processes. The Company offers payment solutions such as bank account, loans, and security activities. Tyro Payments serves customers in Australia.

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Tyro Payments (TYR AU)