Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has a new shareholder, Elon Musk</li><li>And Starbucks would be axing their $20B buyback program as Howard Schultz looks to make a stamp on his welcoming party.</li><li>Shares of Twitter were trading as high as +26% in the early pre-market hours this morning, after an SEC filing from Twitter shows that Elon Musk, founder and current CEO of Tesla has acquired a "passive" but sizeable 9.2% ownership stake of Twitter (~73.5M shares).</li></ul>

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has a new shareholder, Elon MuskAnd Starbucks would be axing their $20B buyback program as Howard Schultz looks to make a stamp on his welcoming party.Shares of Twitter were trading as high as +26% in the early pre-market hours this morning, after an SEC filing from Twitter shows that Elon Musk, founder and current CEO of Tesla has acquired a "passive" but sizeable 9.2% ownership stake of Twitter (~73.5M shares).

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

<ul>
<li>DoubleVerify is a provider of advertising solutions to businesses that helps with ad verification, fraud prevention, and brand safety.</li>
<li>Profitable business model and reasonable valuation (12x forward sales) for its growth/margin profile that ranks well on the Rule of 40 metric.</li>
<li>Recent acquisition of OpenSlate looks synergistic as it expands DV's prebid offerings.</li>
</ul>


DoubleVerify is a provider of advertising solutions to businesses that helps with ad verification, fraud prevention, and brand safety.
Profitable business model and reasonable valuation (12x forward sales) for its growth/margin profile that ranks well on the Rule of 40 metric.
Recent acquisition of OpenSlate looks synergistic as it expands DV's prebid offerings.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> is offering 11 million shares to raise $471 million through an HKEx secondary listing. The primary/secondary spilt is 50:50 (Sina is the secondary seller).  </li>
<li>Weibo is navigating macro and regulatory headwinds by delivering better than expected top-line growth, strong margins and cash generation. </li>
<li>While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is undemanding in comparison to historical P/E and PEG ratios. </li>
</ul>



Weibo Corp (WB US) is offering 11 million shares to raise $471 million through an HKEx secondary listing. The primary/secondary spilt is 50:50 (Sina is the secondary seller).  
Weibo is navigating macro and regulatory headwinds by delivering better than expected top-line growth, strong margins and cash generation. 
While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is undemanding in comparison to historical P/E and PEG ratios. 


Weibo Secondary Listing: Braving Uncertainty

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Microblogger <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3826:1" rel="noopener">Weibo Corp (WB US)</a> - China's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667:1" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> equivalent - has filed an application for a secondary listing of its Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong</li>
<li>Recently privatised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sina-corp-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22691:1" rel="noopener">SINA Corp (Class A) (SINA US)</a> controls 70.6% of the vote, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> a further 15.7%.</li>
<li>A Reuters article back in July flagged a possible take-private transaction for Weibo at US$90-$100/share.</li>
</ul>


Microblogger Weibo Corp (WB US) - China's Twitter Inc (TWTR US) equivalent - has filed an application for a secondary listing of its Class A ordinary shares in Hong Kong
Recently privatised SINA Corp (Class A) (SINA US) controls 70.6% of the vote, with Alibaba Group (9988 HK) a further 15.7%.
A Reuters article back in July flagged a possible take-private transaction for Weibo at US$90-$100/share.


Weibo (WB US) Files For Hong Kong Listing

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has...

Investment Talk

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

Recent IPO Insights: DoubleVerify

DoubleVerify is a provider of advertising solutions to businesses that helps with ad verification, fraud prevention, and brand safety. Fast growing...

Aaron Gabin

Weibo Secondary Listing: Braving Uncertainty

Weibo is offering 11m shares through an HKEx secondary listing. While the near-term visibility remains limited, the valuation at last close is...

Arun George

Weibo (WB US) Files For Hong Kong Listing

At the time of the rumoured Offer for Weibo, Travis said he'd rather own this 10-15% lower than the current US$58.07/share price. That was...

David Blennerhassett

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