Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. </li>
<li>
Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 
</li>
<li>Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.</li>
</ul>



Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits &amp; cash flow, &amp; fund most of billions spent on capex. 

Aging Model Y—its last and only thriving model—won't save it. 

Sales in China were weakening even before what now has become an extended disruption as China fights its worst Covid surge in two years.


Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Manulife US REIT (MUST) / Equity Bottom-Up

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 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2022-04/Capture_7.PNG' alt='Trio of US office SREIT' />
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 <div class='content-caption'>Trio of US office SREIT</div>
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With up to 75 per cent of employees now able to return to the workplace in Singapore, there has been a noticeable increase in crowds in office areas over the past week. 
This trend is also expected to be similar in the US as companies start to announce plans to bring more employees back to the office. 
According to the Microsoft Annual Work Trend Index Report 2022, 50 per cent of leaders say their company already requires, or plans to require, full-time in-person work in the year ahead. 
Companies such as Apple, JP Morgan, and Twitter are also said to welcome more staff back to office and consider hybrid models.

SGX lists 3 pure-play US office S-Reits - Manulife US Reit, Prime US Reit, and Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit. 
The trio have a combined market capitalisation of S$3.8 billion, average distribution yield of 8.7 per cent and trade at a price-to-book ratio of 0.9 times. 
Manulife US Reit (MUST) has a portfolio of 12 freehold office properties in Arizona, California, Georgia, New Jersey, Oregon, Virginia and Washington DC with a combined asset value of US$2.2 billion as at Dec 31, 2021. 
As at end 2021, MUST recorded a 92.3 per cent occupancy rate against the US Class A average of about 83 per cent, according to JLL's Q4 2021 US Office Outlook. 
Must also noted that 2021 ended on a strong note for the US office segment as transaction volumes increased along with higher leasing activity and strong projections for 12-month rent growth in many markets. 
Over the first few months of 2022, MUST also observed higher numbers, signifying that return-to-office is gathering momentum, alongside H2 2021 portfolio valuations turning positive for the first time since the onset of Covid-19. 
It believes that office space will remain relevant, as firms are signing longer US office leases which averaged 7.1 years in Q1 2021 and lengthened to 7.8 years in Q4 2021 according to JLL. 
Prime US Reit (Prime) has a portfolio of 14 freehold office properties in 13 key US office markets with a total carrying value of US$1.65 billion as at Dec 31, 2021. 
It has a portfolio occupancy rate of 90.3 per cent (at end 2021), which is higher than the average US Class A. 
Prime anticipates an increase in leasing activity as employees cautiously plan for their return to office. 
Its leasing activity in H2 2021 more than doubled that in H1 2021 and rent collections have remained above 99 per cent throughout FY2020 and FY2021. 
Prime attributes its resilience to its industry sector diversification, where no single property contributes more than 11.4 per cent of its cash rental income. 
It continues to have a focus in growth and established STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) and TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) sectors. 
Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit (KORE) has a portfolio of 15 freehold office buildings and business campuses across 9 key growth markets in the US with a combined asset value of US$1.46 billion. 
KORE has a committed portfolio occupancy of 91.9 per cent. 
Close to 45 per cent of its portfolio by net lettable area comprises tenants from the growing TAMI, medical and healthcare sectors. 
The Reit has observed that the correlation between increasing Covid-19 cases and falling demand for office space has started to diminish. 
KORE quoted the CoStar Office National Report December 2021, where close to 100 million sq ft of office space was leased in Q3 2021, an indicator of stabilisation in the US office market.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapore-office-s-reits-poised-to-benefit-from-positive-rental-momentum-0"> </a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/us-office-s-reits-set-for-continued-growth-with-the-return-to-office-0">read </a>the original version.
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    Trio of US office SREIT


With up to 75 per cent of employees now able to return to the workplace in Singapore, there has been a noticeable increase in crowds in office areas over the past week.  
This trend is also expected to be similar in the US as companies start to announce plans to bring more employees back to the office.  
According to the Microsoft Annual Work Trend Index Report 2022, 50 per cent of leaders say their company already requires, or plans to require, full-time in-person work in the year ahead.  
Companies such as Apple, JP Morgan, and Twitter are also said to welcome more staff back to office and consider hybrid models.

SGX lists 3 pure-play US office S-Reits - Manulife US Reit, Prime US Reit, and Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit.  
The trio have a combined market capitalisation of S$3.8 billion, average distribution yield of 8.7 per cent and trade at a price-to-book ratio of 0.9 times.  
Manulife US Reit (MUST) has a portfolio of 12 freehold office properties in Arizona, California, Georgia, New Jersey, Oregon, Virginia and Washington DC with a combined asset value of US$2.2 billion as at Dec 31, 2021.  
As at end 2021, MUST recorded a 92.3 per cent occupancy rate against the US Class A average of about 83 per cent, according to JLL's Q4 2021 US Office Outlook.  
Must also noted that 2021 ended on a strong note for the US office segment as transaction volumes increased along with higher leasing activity and strong projections for 12-month rent growth in many markets.  
Over the first few months of 2022, MUST also observed higher numbers, signifying that return-to-office is gathering momentum, alongside H2 2021 portfolio valuations turning positive for the first time since the onset of Covid-19.  
It believes that office space will remain relevant, as firms are signing longer US office leases which averaged 7.1 years in Q1 2021 and lengthened to 7.8 years in Q4 2021 according to JLL.  
Prime US Reit (Prime) has a portfolio of 14 freehold office properties in 13 key US office markets with a total carrying value of US$1.65 billion as at Dec 31, 2021.  
It has a portfolio occupancy rate of 90.3 per cent (at end 2021), which is higher than the average US Class A.  
Prime anticipates an increase in leasing activity as employees cautiously plan for their return to office.  
Its leasing activity in H2 2021 more than doubled that in H1 2021 and rent collections have remained above 99 per cent throughout FY2020 and FY2021.  
Prime attributes its resilience to its industry sector diversification, where no single property contributes more than 11.4 per cent of its cash rental income.  
It continues to have a focus in growth and established STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) and TAMI (technology, advertising, media and information) sectors.  
Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit (KORE) has a portfolio of 15 freehold office buildings and business campuses across 9 key growth markets in the US with a combined asset value of US$1.46 billion.  
KORE has a committed portfolio occupancy of 91.9 per cent.  
Close to 45 per cent of its portfolio by net lettable area comprises tenants from the growing TAMI, medical and healthcare sectors.  
The Reit has observed that the correlation between increasing Covid-19 cases and falling demand for office space has started to diminish.  
KORE quoted the CoStar Office National Report December 2021, where close to 100 million sq ft of office space was leased in Q3 2021, an indicator of stabilisation in the US office market.   REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - US office S-Reits set for continued growth with the return to office

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.</li>
<li>Musk has made a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK)'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. 

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.
Musk has made a non-binding proposal for Twitter Inc (TWTR US) at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

<ul>
<li>
Tesla CEO Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter and take it private. </li>
<li>Better odds: Elon was bored. Pulled the stunt to irritate the SEC.</li>
<li>Musk gets attention. Collects cash! Bolts before paying the check...on 4/20
</li>
</ul>



Tesla CEO Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter and take it private. 
Better odds: Elon was bored. Pulled the stunt to irritate the SEC.
Musk gets attention. Collects cash! Bolts before paying the check...on 4/20



TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Since Elon Musk bought his 9.2% stake in Twitter, the stock is up 30%</li>
<li>We are doubtful Musk can alter the trajectory of Twitter’s slow product development and weak monetization of direct response advertising and SMB customers.  </li>
<li>Twitter trades 6.5x forward sales / 61x forward earnings / 28x forward EV/EBITDA while Facebook trades 4.5x / 19x / 10x those same metrics…essentially 1/3rd the valuation on earnings.</li>
</ul>


Since Elon Musk bought his 9.2% stake in Twitter, the stock is up 30%
We are doubtful Musk can alter the trajectory of Twitter’s slow product development and weak monetization of direct response advertising and SMB customers.  
Twitter trades 6.5x forward sales / 61x forward earnings / 28x forward EV/EBITDA while Facebook trades 4.5x / 19x / 10x those same metrics…essentially 1/3rd the valuation on earnings.


Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

REIT Watch - US office S-Reits set for continued growth with the return to office

With up to 75 per cent of employees now able to return to the workplace in Singapore, there has been a noticeable increase in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Elon Buying Twitter? Probably Not

Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter & take it private cuz...free speech. Or: Elon was bored. Pulled stunt to irritate SEC. Gets attention....

Vicki Bryan

Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Why buy Twitter hoping Elon Musk can solve slow product development, and weak monetization of direct response advertising, when you can buy a re...

Aaron Gabin

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52-week Range

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Forget Elon's Twitter Spatter. Tesla's Got Trouble In China.

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create *all* its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....

Vicki Bryan

REIT Watch - US office S-Reits set for continued growth with the return to office

With up to 75 per cent of employees now able to return to the workplace in Singapore, there has been a noticeable increase in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Elon Buying Twitter? Probably Not

Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter & take it private cuz...free speech. Or: Elon was bored. Pulled stunt to irritate SEC. Gets attention....

Vicki Bryan

Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Why buy Twitter hoping Elon Musk can solve slow product development, and weak monetization of direct response advertising, when you can buy a re...

Aaron Gabin

Tesla is losing ground in China, which it needs to juice its margins, create all its profits & cash flow, & fund most of billions spent on capex....