Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.</li>
<li>Musk has made a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/twitter-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:667" rel="noopener">Twitter Inc (TWTR US)</a> at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK)'s CCASS movements are a thing, and there are things going on in the background, but the things in the foreground are not as menacing as they appear. 

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)'s NAV discount and implied stub plumb new lows. Again.
Musk has made a non-binding proposal for Twitter Inc (TWTR US) at US$54.20/share. Get it? Get it? Nudge nudge wink wink. That's all part of the fun for him.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla CEO Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter and take it private. </li>
<li>Better odds: Elon was bored. Pulled the stunt to irritate the SEC.</li>
<li>Musk gets attention. Collects cash! Bolts before paying the check...on 4/20
</li>
</ul>



Tesla CEO Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter and take it private. 
Better odds: Elon was bored. Pulled the stunt to irritate the SEC.
Musk gets attention. Collects cash! Bolts before paying the check...on 4/20



TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since Elon Musk bought his 9.2% stake in Twitter, the stock is up 30%</li>
<li>We are doubtful Musk can alter the trajectory of Twitter’s slow product development and weak monetization of direct response advertising and SMB customers.  </li>
<li>Twitter trades 6.5x forward sales / 61x forward earnings / 28x forward EV/EBITDA while Facebook trades 4.5x / 19x / 10x those same metrics…essentially 1/3rd the valuation on earnings.</li>
</ul>


Since Elon Musk bought his 9.2% stake in Twitter, the stock is up 30%
We are doubtful Musk can alter the trajectory of Twitter’s slow product development and weak monetization of direct response advertising and SMB customers.  
Twitter trades 6.5x forward sales / 61x forward earnings / 28x forward EV/EBITDA while Facebook trades 4.5x / 19x / 10x those same metrics…essentially 1/3rd the valuation on earnings.


Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has a new shareholder, Elon Musk</li><li>And Starbucks would be axing their $20B buyback program as Howard Schultz looks to make a stamp on his welcoming party.</li><li>Shares of Twitter were trading as high as +26% in the early pre-market hours this morning, after an SEC filing from Twitter shows that Elon Musk, founder and current CEO of Tesla has acquired a "passive" but sizeable 9.2% ownership stake of Twitter (~73.5M shares).</li></ul>

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has a new shareholder, Elon MuskAnd Starbucks would be axing their $20B buyback program as Howard Schultz looks to make a stamp on his welcoming party.Shares of Twitter were trading as high as +26% in the early pre-market hours this morning, after an SEC filing from Twitter shows that Elon Musk, founder and current CEO of Tesla has acquired a "passive" but sizeable 9.2% ownership stake of Twitter (~73.5M shares).

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

<ul>
<li>Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.</li>
<li>Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.</li>
<li>Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.</li>
</ul>


Snapchat largely dispelled the Apple bear case, and should return to the mid $60s.
Actual competitive differentiation vs. TikTok and Facebook means Snapchat's user growth and engagement remain strong.
Revenue growth will reaccelerate as it works through IDFA, but international monetization is the kicker.


Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

United States

Twitter, Inc. provides online social networking and microblogging service. The Company offers users the ability to follow other users activity, read, and post tweets. Twitter serves customers worldwide.

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Twitter Inc (TWTR US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: JD.com, Suzuki, Twitter, Toyo Construction, Uniti Group, Singapore Press

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Elon Buying Twitter? Probably Not

Elon Musk bid $43 billion to buy Twitter & take it private cuz...free speech. Or: Elon was bored. Pulled stunt to irritate SEC. Gets attention....

Vicki Bryan

Musk Buys Twitter, You Should Buy Facebook

Why buy Twitter hoping Elon Musk can solve slow product development, and weak monetization of direct response advertising, when you can buy a re...

Aaron Gabin

Elon Buys 9.2% of Twitter, and Starbucks Suspend $20B Buyback Program

This morning I had two of my larger holdings, Starbucks and Twitter, become embroiled in headlines. It was announced this morning that Twitter has...

Investment Talk

Snapchat 4Q21: A Quick Turnaround…And Why Facebook Didn’t Snapback

With Snapchat's LT thesis restored, we would buy the stock even up 50%. A return to its 5 yr P/S average of 14x would equate to $66 on 2023 revenues.

Aaron Gabin

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