Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stove-kraft-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31372:1" rel="noopener">Stove Kraft (0490943D IN)</a></p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  </p>
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In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints (APNT IN) , Ashok Leyland (AL IN), Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) and Stove Kraft (0490943D IN)

About India Channel Insight


Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>My long-time audience may have learned my lack of interest in the internet sector when it comes to equity investing;</li>
<li>But <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaspi-kz-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33382:1" rel="noopener">Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI)</a> can be an exception thanks to its superior quality;</li>
<li>The valuation of the share does not seem cheap but is by no means unfair given the rapidly-developing addressable market, multi-cylinder growth engine, sustainable competitive advantage, and owner-leadership.</li>
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My long-time audience may have learned my lack of interest in the internet sector when it comes to equity investing;
But Kaspi.KZ JSC (KSPI LI) can be an exception thanks to its superior quality;
The valuation of the share does not seem cheap but is by no means unfair given the rapidly-developing addressable market, multi-cylinder growth engine, sustainable competitive advantage, and owner-leadership.


Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>Well, that sure escalated quickly.</p><p>Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.</p><p>Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.</p><p>DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).</p><p>Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered <em>ad nauseam.</em></p><p>No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.</p><p>So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.</p><p>Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.</p><p>Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.</p><p>Therefore, downgrading to bearish.</p>

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Hutchmed China Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)</a> has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx by offering 104.0 million ordinary shares at a maximum offer price of HK$45.00 per share. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 23 June. The net proceeds will be used to fund the late-stage clinical programs (<em>savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib</em>, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523), to support further proof-of-concept studies and strengthen commercialisation capabilities.</p>
<p>HutchMed has primary listings on Nasdaq and on UK AIM. The HKEx secondary listing will be supported by five cornerstone investors which will subscribe for HK$2,535 million ($325 million) of the offer shares (54.17% of the offer shares at the maximum offer price). The cornerstone investors are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CPP Investments, General Atlantic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hbm-healthcare-investments-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22373:1" rel="noopener">HBM Healthcare Investments AG (HBMN SW)</a> and CICC Capital.</p>
<p>HutchMed is a China-based, globally focused, biopharma company, active in discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialisation. The investment case centres on the<br>success of its oncology/immunology platform, which has several near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts from the novel highly selective small molecule (tyrosine kinase inhibitor) pipeline. Notably, in-house discovered drugs, <em>Elunate (fruquintinib)</em> and <em>Sulanda (surufatinib)</em>, together with a likely approval for <em>savolitinib</em>, are transforming China prospects. <em>Elunate</em> is performing well in China, with NRDL inclusion boosting volumes. The first global launch is likely to be <em>surufatinib </em>with a US launch targeted for late 2021 or early 2022.</p>
</div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, HutchMed will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs/UK shares to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. HutchMed pricing its H-shares at a discount of 2-3% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.</p></div></div>


Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx by offering 104.0 million ordinary shares at a maximum offer price of HK$45.00 per share. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 23 June. The net proceeds will be used to fund the late-stage clinical programs (savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523), to support further proof-of-concept studies and strengthen commercialisation capabilities.
HutchMed has primary listings on Nasdaq and on UK AIM. The HKEx secondary listing will be supported by five cornerstone investors which will subscribe for HK$2,535 million ($325 million) of the offer shares (54.17% of the offer shares at the maximum offer price). The cornerstone investors are Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CPP Investments, General Atlantic, HBM Healthcare Investments AG (HBMN SW) and CICC Capital.
HutchMed is a China-based, globally focused, biopharma company, active in discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialisation. The investment case centres on the success of its oncology/immunology platform, which has several near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts from the novel highly selective small molecule (tyrosine kinase inhibitor) pipeline. Notably, in-house discovered drugs, Elunate (fruquintinib) and Sulanda (surufatinib), together with a likely approval for savolitinib, are transforming China prospects. Elunate is performing well in China, with NRDL inclusion boosting volumes. The first global launch is likely to be surufatinib with a US launch targeted for late 2021 or early 2022.
In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, HutchMed will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs/UK shares to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. HutchMed pricing its H-shares at a discount of 2-3% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>Back on the 17 September 2020, IR solutions provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/51-job-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:532:1" rel="noopener">51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US)</a> announced it had received a preliminary non-binding <a href="https://sec.report/Document/0001104659-20-105912/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Proposal</a> from DCP Capital Partners to acquire all of its shares for US$79.05/common share, a premium of 18.82% to 51job's 30-day VWAP, and a premium of 16.05% to 51job's last close.</p>
<p>The company <a href="https://ir.51job.com/ir/php/2020/PreReleaseq09212020.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener">formed</a> a special committee on the 21 September to evaluate the proposal and an independent financial advisor was appointed on the <a href="https://ir.51job.com/ir/php/2020/PreReleaseq09302020.php" target="_blank" rel="noopener">30 September</a>.</p>
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<p>Then crickets. Not even a mention in its <a href="https://ir.51job.com/ir/doc/2021/2020Form20FEDGARFINAL20210423.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2020 annual report</a> on the 23 April this year. One would have thought given the material nature of this proposal warranted at least a one-liner.</p>
<p>I reached out to the IR for clarification and was told:</p>
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<p>The evaluation is ongoing. When there is an update or development, a public press release will be issued.</p>
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<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>51job <a href="https://ir.51job.com/ir/php/2021/PreRelease20210504.php?0504" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> yesterday an updated non-binding proposal which sees Ocean Link and CEO Rick Yan joining DCP in the consortium to take the company private. The Offer price of US$79.05/common share remains the same.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
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Back on the 17 September 2020, IR solutions provider 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) announced it had received a preliminary non-binding Proposal from DCP Capital Partners to acquire all of its shares for US$79.05/common share, a premium of 18.82% to 51job's 30-day VWAP, and a premium of 16.05% to 51job's last close.
The company formed a special committee on the 21 September to evaluate the proposal and an independent financial advisor was appointed on the 30 September.


Then crickets. Not even a mention in its 2020 annual report on the 23 April this year. One would have thought given the material nature of this proposal warranted at least a one-liner.
I reached out to the IR for clarification and was told:

The evaluation is ongoing. When there is an update or development, a public press release will be issued.

The New News
51job announced yesterday an updated non-binding proposal which sees Ocean Link and CEO Rick Yan joining DCP in the consortium to take the company private. The Offer price of US$79.05/common share remains the same.
More below the fold.


51job's Buyout: Offer Price Unchanged In Updated Proposal

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip Ltd and Stove Kraft

Pranav Bhavsar

Kaspi.kz - A Superior-Quality Trio

Kaspi.kz is an exceptional "Super App" business winning sustainably in all three verticals where it operates in a rapidly-developing but often...

Steven Chen

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

HutchMed has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx. In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount).

Arun George

51job's Buyout: Offer Price Unchanged In Updated Proposal

Trading at a gross spread of 15.9%. With a seasoned player such as Ocean Link now in the mix, plus the CEO, a definitive agreement looks more...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip Ltd and Stove Kraft

Pranav Bhavsar

Kaspi.kz - A Superior-Quality Trio

Kaspi.kz is an exceptional "Super App" business winning sustainably in all three verticals where it operates in a rapidly-developing but often...

Steven Chen

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

HutchMed has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx. In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount).

Arun George

51job's Buyout: Offer Price Unchanged In Updated Proposal

Trading at a gross spread of 15.9%. With a seasoned player such as Ocean Link now in the mix, plus the CEO, a definitive agreement looks more...

David Blennerhassett

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views