Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;</li>
<li>Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, </li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;
Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, 
We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.</li><li>This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.</li><li>I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.</li></ul>

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.</li>
<li>The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.</li>
<li>However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.</li>
</ul>


Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than 19% we expected.
The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note.
However, we believe, any stock decline over 11% means overreacted.


Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

<ul>
<li>Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324</li>
<li>But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction</li>
<li>We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform</li>
</ul>


Net Revenue growth accelerated to +23% Y/Y in Q424, far stronger than in Q224 and Q324
But costs and expenses grew even faster, leading to surprisingly sharp margin contraction
We no longer view Trip.com as an attractive play on Chinese travel; airlines may outperform


Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

​TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

Trip.com (TCOM, 9961HK): 4Q24, Even Better Results, But Plunged as Expected

Total revenue grew by 24% in 4Q24, higher than we expected. The stock price plunged in Hong Kong as we expect in our preview note, but we believe...

Ming Lu

Trip.com Q424 Results | Higher Costs Finally Arrive, And With a Vengeance

Trip.com's Q424 results showed a re-acceleration of top-line growth, but also a surprising surge in Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses, which...

Tracking Traffic

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...