Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins</li>
<li>We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing</li>
<li>After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view</li>
</ul>


Q124 showed solid top-line growth, impressive improvement in core margins
We are not too concerned about moderating domestic hotel, air pricing
After consensus EPS raised, TCOM a BUY below US$50 per ADS, in our view


Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April </li>
<li>Moderating domestic demand? It's not new, and outbound matters more </li>
<li>On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com's ADRs</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound travel demand continued its gradual recovery in April 
Moderating domestic demand? It's not new, and outbound matters more 
On a pullback to below US$50, we would again BUY Trip.com's ADRs


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption</li>
<li>However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;</li>
<li>Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.</li>
</ul>


In a tough macro environment with travel as perhaps the only bright spot in consumption
However, equally compelling is the demand negatives of overseas travel as a somewhat luxurious consumption item and tough competition at home;
Given the stock’s valuation, we maintain the rating as SELL but raise TP to US$45/ADS, implying 2025 PE of 15x.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, aided by better-than-expected revenue generation from both accommodation reservation and Others segments.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.8bn, better than our forecast/consensus at RMB3.2/3.1bn, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM aided by better-thanexpected scale effect, and better-than-expected marketing spend driven by a stringent ROI target.</li><li>Although the strong release of pent-up demand in travel industry has been largely priced in, we suggest investors look beyond pent-up demand to TCOM’s globalization potential. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, aided by better-than-expected revenue generation from both accommodation reservation and Others segments.Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB3.8bn, better than our forecast/consensus at RMB3.2/3.1bn, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM aided by better-thanexpected scale effect, and better-than-expected marketing spend driven by a stringent ROI target.Although the strong release of pent-up demand in travel industry has been largely priced in, we suggest investors look beyond pent-up demand to TCOM’s globalization potential. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Looking Beyond Release of Pent-Up Demand to Globalization

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.</li>
<li>What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.</li>
<li>Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. </li>
</ul>


Shareholders of Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ) approved AGM agenda items late last week to enable the two Capitalisation Issues and Naspers' Share Consolidation to move forward.
What Will Happen: Prosus will issue new N shares to its shareholders and Naspers will reject them. Naspers will issue new shares to its shareholders, and Prosus will reject them.
Naspers will own ~42.9% of Prosus, Prosus will own 0.02% of Naspers. Sales of Tencent shares will continue. Share Buybacks too. But the ouroboros will have spit out its tail. 


Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

Trip.com's Q124 earnings results showed solid top-ine growth and strong core margin improvement. We believe the company's ADSs are attractive below...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in April. Chinese travel-linked shares have pulled back over concerns about hotel and air...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

Despite travel being a bright spot in consumption, overseas travel is seen as a luxury item with tough competition at home. Stock rating remains...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Looking Beyond Release of Pent-Up Demand to Globalization

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

The Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros is Dead. Long live the Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros. Prosus is an Accretion Engine. Know it. Use it.

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q124 Review: Solid Top-Line Growth | Progress on Margins | BUY Below US$50

Trip.com's Q124 earnings results showed solid top-ine growth and strong core margin improvement. We believe the company's ADSs are attractive below...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Grinds Forward | Domestic Weakness Not New | (May 2024)

Outbound Chinese travel demand continued its recovery in April. Chinese travel-linked shares have pulled back over concerns about hotel and air...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, SELL, TP US$45) TP Change]: Liquidity and Platform Positive Vs. Demand Negative

​Despite travel being a bright spot in consumption, overseas travel is seen as a luxury item with tough competition at home. Stock rating remains...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Looking Beyond Release of Pent-Up Demand to Globalization

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (21 May) 1Q24 results: net revenue was RMB11.9bn, up 29.4% YoY, 3% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Prosus/Naspers - The ουροβóρος Is Dead! Long Live The Ouroboros!

The Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros is Dead. Long live the Prosus/Naspers Ouroboros. Prosus is an Accretion Engine. Know it. Use it.

Travis Lundy

Despite travel being a bright spot in consumption, overseas travel is seen as a luxury item with tough competition at home. Stock rating remains...