Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February</li>
<li>Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent</li>
<li>But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

<ul>
<li>Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm</li>
<li>Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid</li>
<li>Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124</li>
</ul>


Adjusting for impact of LNY timing, January numbers still seem firm
Headline February / LNY 2024 traffic growth also appears solid
Our thesis remains that tourism recovery takes longer, strongest in H124


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week</li>
<li>Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth</li>
<li>We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported a strong set of Q4 and FY23 earnings results last week
Company has held the line on SG&amp;A expenses; look for strong H124 growth
We believe shares are cheap and recommend investors buy below US$43/ADS


Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (22 Feb) 4Q23 results: net revenue was RMB10.3bn, up 105% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 24% higher than the 4Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB2.6bn, 43% better than consensus, thanks to more efficient-than-expected S&amp;M spend, as well as stronger-than-expected operating efficiency improvement.</li><li>Aided by strong supply chain capabilities, well-established brand effect, and a loyal high-end customer base, TCOM leads outbound travel industry recovery amid the release of strong travel demand. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (22 Feb) 4Q23 results: net revenue was RMB10.3bn, up 105% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 24% higher than the 4Q19 level.Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB2.6bn, 43% better than consensus, thanks to more efficient-than-expected S&amp;M spend, as well as stronger-than-expected operating efficiency improvement.Aided by strong supply chain capabilities, well-established brand effect, and a loyal high-end customer base, TCOM leads outbound travel industry recovery amid the release of strong travel demand. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Lead Industry Recovery Amid Release of Strong Travel Demand

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23.</li>
<li>The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery after the lift of the lockdown at the end of 2022.</li>
<li>The stock price is close to our last price target - Downgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23.
The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery after the lift of the lockdown at the end of 2022.
The stock price is close to our last price target - Downgrade to Hold.


Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | January & Initial Read On February Both Indicate Solid Growth

In January 2024 Chinese travel demand continued to recover, and initial indications are that demand related to the long LNY holiday was also strong.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q4 Quick Take: Strong Top-Line Growth | Impressive Expense Control | And Not Expensive

Trip.com reported another strong set of quarterly results last week that featured strong top-line growth and admirable expense control. We suggest...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Lead Industry Recovery Amid Release of Strong Travel Demand

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (22 Feb) 4Q23 results: net revenue was RMB10.3bn, up 105% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was...

CMB International

Trip.com (9961 HK, TCOM US): 4Q23, Revenue Up by 105%, But Reached Our Last Price Target

The main businesses, hotel and air ticket bookings increased by 131% YoY and 86% YoY in 4Q23. The Chinese traveling market continued its recovery...

Ming Lu

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