Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Overnight, a few news outlets are running with the story that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has granted "preferred bidder" status to the Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)-led consortium bid.</li>
<li>JIP had originally signed up with public-private fund JIC, forming one of the four bids (the other three being CVC, Bain, and Brookfield) but JIP and JIC split last month.</li>
<li>"Preferred Bidder status" is just that. It's not exclusive, but one can read between the lines. But the articles have interesting details, including the first trial ballon price leak.</li>
</ul>


Overnight, a few news outlets are running with the story that Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has granted "preferred bidder" status to the Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)-led consortium bid.
JIP had originally signed up with public-private fund JIC, forming one of the four bids (the other three being CVC, Bain, and Brookfield) but JIP and JIC split last month.
"Preferred Bidder status" is just that. It's not exclusive, but one can read between the lines. But the articles have interesting details, including the first trial ballon price leak.


Toshiba (6502) - JIP Gets Preferred Bidder Status and We Get The First Price Leak

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a>'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a> is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.</li>
<li>Expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keppel-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12:1" rel="noopener">Keppel (KEP SP)</a> to re-rate after the spinoff. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. </li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP)'s subsidiary has reportedly filed its application to become a Bank Holding Company, the definition being a company holding a 50% or greater stake in a bank.

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP) is expensive here - relative to historical values -  and from an implied stub perspective, has only briefly been exceeded twice in the last decade.
Expect Keppel (KEP SP) to re-rate after the spinoff. The Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) distribution supported by both better profitability and much larger order books can be managed reasonably cleanly. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Canon's reported capital spending plan suggest that commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could start in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle.</li>
<li>If this is the case, Kioxia is likely to be the main beneficiary. In the meantime, LightStream recommends that investors in Toshiba hedge against tech/semi weakness.</li>
<li>Technical hurdles remain formidable, but nanoimprint lithography has the potential to be much cheaper than EUV.</li>
</ul>


Canon's reported capital spending plan suggest that commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could start in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle.
If this is the case, Kioxia is likely to be the main beneficiary. In the meantime, LightStream recommends that investors in Toshiba hedge against tech/semi weakness.
Technical hurdles remain formidable, but nanoimprint lithography has the potential to be much cheaper than EUV.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update - Look to the Next Cycle

<ul>
<li>On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.</li>
<li>Affiliate and former subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.</li>
<li>Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.
Affiliate and former subsidiary Kioxia (6600 JP) announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.
Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. 


<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed this week: Boyu's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>;  Chinachems's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pine-care-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28845:1" rel="noopener">Pine Care (1989 HK)</a>, &amp; Accenture Japan bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albert-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29668:1" rel="noopener">ALBERT (3906 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">MACA Ltd (MLD AU)</a> .</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals were discussed this week: Boyu's Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK);  Chinachems's Offer for Pine Care (1989 HK), &amp; Accenture Japan bid for ALBERT (3906 JP).
Key updates took place for Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) and MACA Ltd (MLD AU) .


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Jinke Smart, Pine Care, MACA, Hitachi Metals

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502) - JIP Gets Preferred Bidder Status and We Get The First Price Leak

A Nikkei article says JIP is Toshiba's Preferred Bidder and that JIC will be asked to finish its bid. Meaning? JIP is the ONLY acceptable bid. It's...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, Jardine Cycle, Keppel Corp, Eagle Cement, Hitachi Transport

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update - Look to the Next Cycle

Commercial production of nanoimprint lithography tools could begin in time for the next semiconductor up-cycle. That main beneficiary would be...

Scott Foster

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Jinke Smart, Pine Care, MACA, Hitachi Metals

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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