Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%. </li>
<li>This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated. </li>
<li>With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.</li>
</ul>


Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%. 
This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated. 
With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.


Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed this week: Anthoni Salim's Exit Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moya-holdings-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2293:1" rel="noopener">Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>'s MBO, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a>'s MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shidax-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7754:1" rel="noopener">Shidax Corp (4837 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21-vianet-group-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8489:1" rel="noopener">VNET (VNET US)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals were discussed this week: Anthoni Salim's Exit Offer for Moya Holdings Asia (MHAL SP); 111 Inc (YI US)'s MBO, and Singapore Medical (SMG SP)'s MBO.
Key updates took place for Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP),Link Administration (LNK AU), Giordano International (709 HK), Shidax Corp (4837 JP), and VNET (VNET US).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Moya, Singapore Medical, Link Admin, Giordano,111 Inc, VNET

<ul>
<li>There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed this week: Potentia's rejected proposal for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a>'s tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shidax-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7754:1" rel="noopener">Shidax Corp (4837 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals were discussed this week: Potentia's rejected proposal forTyro Payments (TYR AU) and Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)'s tilt for Shidax Corp (4837 JP).
Key updates took place for Link Administration (LNK AU),  Giordano International (709 HK), and Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Shidax, Link Admin, Giordano, Hitachi Transport

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2022 Nikkei 225 Annual Review has been announced. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-review-results-nidec-smc-hoya-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80187" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can make early predictions for the March 2023 rebalance to be announced in six months. One way turnover would be about 1.4%. </li>
<li>The top three adds are Oriental Land, Renesas, and JAL. The top 3 sells would be Toyobo, Toho Zinc, and Nippon Sheet Glass. There are some dark horses here too.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2022 Nikkei 225 Annual Review has been announced. This was discussed in Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN. 
That means we can make early predictions for the March 2023 rebalance to be announced in six months. One way turnover would be about 1.4%. 
The top three adds are Oriental Land, Renesas, and JAL. The top 3 sells would be Toyobo, Toho Zinc, and Nippon Sheet Glass. There are some dark horses here too.


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?

Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%. With potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about...

Mio Kato

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Moya, Singapore Medical, Link Admin, Giordano,111 Inc, VNET

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Tyro, Shidax, Link Admin, Giordano, Hitachi Transport

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard

The Nikkei 225 Annual Review is announced. That means we can try to predict the March 2023 review. 3 auto adds 3 auto deletes are likely. Sep23 is...

Travis Lundy

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