Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal's Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWS AU)</a> is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox (FOXA US)</a>. And Fox is preferable over NWS' print media business. </li>
</ul>


There is potentially a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), but there is also fundamental risk beyond this.

Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejects EQT/BPEA/Regal's Offer, a proposal that is contingent on PPT ceasing its Scheme with Pendal Group (PDL AU) 

News Corp (NWS AU) is trading rich. The net EV/EBITDA for the stub ops trades closely matches to Fox (FOXA US). And Fox is preferable over NWS' print media business. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: EQTBPEA/Regal's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: EQTBPEA/Regal's tilt for Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Singapore Medical (SMG SP), and Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Perpetual, Nitro, Fengxiang, Pushpay, Singapore Medical

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>With Toshiba giving up its deal premium on news that the JIP consortium was struggling to secure financing it is worth assessing how much downside risk there is. </li>
<li>Prospects are deteriorating rapidly and we believe valuations for Kioxia and the HDD business are likely to lead the way down. </li>
<li>We estimate that there is still a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal but that there is fundamental risk beyond this.</li>
</ul>


With Toshiba giving up its deal premium on news that the JIP consortium was struggling to secure financing it is worth assessing how much downside risk there is. 
Prospects are deteriorating rapidly and we believe valuations for Kioxia and the HDD business are likely to lead the way down. 
We estimate that there is still a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal but that there is fundamental risk beyond this.


Toshiba – How Much Risk Is There On A Deal Break?

<ul>
<li>There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: K1's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elmo-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24342:1" rel="noopener">Elmo Software (ELO AU)</a>, Chu's Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a>, KKR's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nearmap-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5142:1" rel="noopener">Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lifestyle-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:112:1" rel="noopener">Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aruhi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26072:1" rel="noopener">Aruhi Corp (7198 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: K1's Offer for Elmo Software (ELO AU), Chu's Offer for Kingston Financial (1031 HK), KKR's tilt for Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP).
Key updates took place for Nearmap Ltd (NEA AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Lifestyle International Holdings (1212 HK), and Aruhi Corp (7198 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ELMO, Kingston Financial, Hitachi Transport, Nearmap, Aruhi

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and others. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> is cheap. It appears to be running at 6x 2022 earnings. This is not abnormal for a cyclical at the end of the cycle.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> confirms its interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, but still nothing firm.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba (6502 JP) investors should look at process and understand the difference between this one and others. Some news is not news, other than telling you the dance has started.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) is cheap. It appears to be running at 6x 2022 earnings. This is not abnormal for a cyclical at the end of the cycle.

Westpac Banking (WBC AU) confirms its interest in Tyro Payments (TYR AU), but still nothing firm.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, United Tractor, Recruit, Tyro Payments, DTAC/True, Bank Of Kyoto

Japan

Toshiba Corporation manufactures and markets electrical and electronic products. The Company's products include digital products such as PCs and televisions, NAND flash memories, and system LSIs (large-scale integrated), as well as social infrastructures such as power generators, medical equipment, and home appliances.

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Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Perpetual/Pendal, News Corp/Fox Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Perpetual, Nitro, Fengxiang, Pushpay, Singapore Medical

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Toshiba – How Much Risk Is There On A Deal Break?

With Toshiba giving up its deal premium on news that the JIP consortium was struggling to secure financing it is worth assessing how much downside...

Mio Kato

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: ELMO, Kingston Financial, Hitachi Transport, Nearmap, Aruhi

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, United Tractor, Recruit, Tyro Payments, DTAC/True, Bank Of Kyoto

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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