Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets

Toshiba (6502) - JIP Gets Preferred Bidder Status and We Get The First Price Leak

Toshiba (6502) - There Is Actual News, and There Are Datapoints Which Masquerade as News

Toshiba (6502 JP): Kioxia Nanoimprint Update - Look to the Next Cycle

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With Toshiba giving up its deal premium on news that the JIP consortium was struggling to secure financing it is worth assessing how much downside risk there is. </li>
<li>Prospects are deteriorating rapidly and we believe valuations for Kioxia and the HDD business are likely to lead the way down. </li>
<li>We estimate that there is still a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal but that there is fundamental risk beyond this.</li>
</ul>


With Toshiba giving up its deal premium on news that the JIP consortium was struggling to secure financing it is worth assessing how much downside risk there is. 
Prospects are deteriorating rapidly and we believe valuations for Kioxia and the HDD business are likely to lead the way down. 
We estimate that there is still a premium of about 20-25% being assessed for the possibility of a deal but that there is fundamental risk beyond this.


Toshiba – How Much Risk Is There On A Deal Break?

Toshiba Corp

Toshiba – How Much Risk Is There On A Deal Break?