Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

TongFu Microelectronics   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC's new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.</li><li>Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India's semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.</li><li>China's chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.</li></ul>

TSMC's new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India's semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.China's chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Hua Hong Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong's secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024.  The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> is well-positioned to cater to China's increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.
</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong's secular bull market continues this year with record buying from mainland investors through the Southbound Connect platform.

AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) announced a positive profit alert of of 150% increase in profit for 2024.  The AI, phone and auto segments saw value content increases.


Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) is well-positioned to cater to China's increasing demand for locally designed and produced chips, especially in the EV, smart home appliances and wearables industries.



BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's H20 and upcoming B20 were launched to comply with China export controls, and have remained successful due to deficiencies and supply issues for Huawei's Ascend AI accelerators.</li>
<li>However, Nvidia's China success will be short-lived due to increasing LLM compute requirements and no method for it to offer a more performance dense offering due to export controls.</li>
<li>Not only will Huawei's upcoming Ascend AI accelerator mitigate this issue, but it will likely also aim to address some of the other deficiencies of the Ascend platform too.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's H20 and upcoming B20 were launched to comply with China export controls, and have remained successful due to deficiencies and supply issues for Huawei's Ascend AI accelerators.
However, Nvidia's China success will be short-lived due to increasing LLM compute requirements and no method for it to offer a more performance dense offering due to export controls.
Not only will Huawei's upcoming Ascend AI accelerator mitigate this issue, but it will likely also aim to address some of the other deficiencies of the Ascend platform too.


Nvidia's China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies

<ul><li>ASML CEO suggests Trump's tariffs could give US tech industry an advantage, potentially benefiting India's tech sector as well.</li><li>Tongfu begins trial assembly of HBM2, signaling potential growth in India's tech industry in response to changing tariff policies.</li><li>India lowers tariffs in response to Trump's tariff policy, indicating a willingness to adapt and potentially increase trade opportunities.</li></ul>

ASML CEO suggests Trump's tariffs could give US tech industry an advantage, potentially benefiting India's tech sector as well.Tongfu begins trial assembly of HBM2, signaling potential growth in India's tech industry in response to changing tariff policies.India lowers tariffs in response to Trump's tariff policy, indicating a willingness to adapt and potentially increase trade opportunities.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Feb-2025): Can Trump's tariffs benefit India's tech?

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.</li>
<li>China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> shares have benefited from this trend.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.
</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH index is trading higher on higher breadth and momentum in January, up 6% so far.  Analysts project an upside of 23% over 12 months.
China's semiconductor sector is advancing this year from AI enthusiasm and accelerated localization in the chip industry.  Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) shares have benefited from this trend.

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) benefits from China's announcement that it will subsidize more consumer products, including smartphones and new vehicles.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

China

TongFu Microelectronics Co., Ltd. manufactures integrated chips. The Company provides assembling and testing service for memory, microprocessor, micro-controller, hybrid circuit, analog circuit, and other related services throughout China.

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TongFu Microelectronics (002156 CH)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

TSMC shakes up advanced packaging with new wafer tech; Micron focuses on overcoming memory slump, advancing HBM4 development for mass production in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)

Mainland investors are buying record amounts in HK during secular bull mkt. AAC Tech reported positive earnings surprise and Hua Hong is rapidly...

David Mudd

Nvidia's China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies

Nvidia's success in China may be short-lived due to the increasing number of failure points as model compute scales. Meanwhile, Huawei's Ascend...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Feb-2025): Can Trump's tariffs benefit India's tech?

ASML CEO believes US tariffs could benefit India's tech industry, Tongfu begins HBM2 trial as India reduces tariffs in response to Trump's policy.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Dec-2024): TSMC transforms packaging market with wafer manufacturing 2.0.

TSMC shakes up advanced packaging with new wafer tech; Micron focuses on overcoming memory slump, advancing HBM4 development for mass production in...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Update (February 20)

Mainland investors are buying record amounts in HK during secular bull mkt. AAC Tech reported positive earnings surprise and Hua Hong is rapidly...

David Mudd

Nvidia's China Dominance in AI Accelerator Has Serious Deficiencies

​Nvidia's success in China may be short-lived due to the increasing number of failure points as model compute scales. Meanwhile, Huawei's Ascend...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (11-Feb-2025): Can Trump's tariffs benefit India's tech?

ASML CEO believes US tariffs could benefit India's tech industry, Tongfu begins HBM2 trial as India reduces tariffs in response to Trump's policy.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 25)

HSTECH advances with good market breadth in January. SMIC is benefiting from AI advances as well as the localization trend in semi industry. ...

David Mudd

Nvidia's success in China may be short-lived due to the increasing number of failure points as model compute scales. Meanwhile, Huawei's Ascend...