Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.2bn this week (now 26wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.</li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. They were gone for a couple of weeks. Feels like they are back. </li>
<li>There were three ETFs in the top five SOUTHBOUND sells this past week, reversing last week. Energy, Utilities, Telecoms bought. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$9.2bn this week (now 26wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes.
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. They were gone for a couple of weeks. Feels like they are back. 
There were three ETFs in the top five SOUTHBOUND sells this past week, reversing last week. Energy, Utilities, Telecoms bought. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>One year ago, we published a note valuing Wechat Channels at US$29 billion by applying 25xPE to RMB8 billion net profit out of RMB37 billion revenue by 2024.</li>
<li>Fast forward to today, the platform’s priority has been further elevated by Tencent management in its attempt to pursue high quality growth.</li>
<li>We review our thesis on Wechat Channels based on recent channel checks and now believe that the platform could represent ~35% of Tencent's total incremental profit from 2024 to 2026. </li>
</ul>


One year ago, we published a note valuing Wechat Channels at US$29 billion by applying 25xPE to RMB8 billion net profit out of RMB37 billion revenue by 2024.
Fast forward to today, the platform’s priority has been further elevated by Tencent management in its attempt to pursue high quality growth.
We review our thesis on Wechat Channels based on recent channel checks and now believe that the platform could represent ~35% of Tencent's total incremental profit from 2024 to 2026. 


Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.8bn this week (now 25wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. </li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, 1 bank showed up in the top 20 net buys after only 1 in the top ten last week.</li>
<li>There were three ETFs in the top six SOUTHBOUND buys this past week. That was unusual. Some high div SOEs got sold. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$7.8bn this week (now 25wks in a row of net buying), on smallish two-way volumes. 
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, 1 bank showed up in the top 20 net buys after only 1 in the top ten last week.
There were three ETFs in the top six SOUTHBOUND buys this past week. That was unusual. Some high div SOEs got sold. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jul 2024); ETFs Get Bought, Banks Have Gone Missing

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the June batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening. Of companies that we are monitoring, none got any approval.</li>
<li>China's CADPA published a semi-annual report pointing to flattish growth of gaming revenue in the first half. </li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the June batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening. Of companies that we are monitoring, none got any approval.
China's CADPA published a semi-annual report pointing to flattish growth of gaming revenue in the first half. 


Tencent/Netease: Zero for Major Names; Industry Revenue Growth Flattish in First Half

<ul>
<li>A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.</li>
<li>Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). </li>
</ul>


A better week for HK stocks as A-shares rebound on National Team buying, a PBOC RRR cut, and potentially other measures to boost the market. Foreigners stopped selling; that helped.
Southbound saw decent net buying on ETFs late in the week, but otherwise the week was pretty flat in single-stock land - net buying of SOEs, selling of tech.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$4.5bn on the week, mostly through Shanghai (interestingly, 90+% of the decent NORTHBOUND buy was also through Shanghai). 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 2 Aug 2024); ETFs Get Sold; Tencent, SOEs, Utilities Bought

SOUTHBOUND flows for HK Connect were to the net buy side for the 26th week in a row. SOEs in Energy, Telcos, and Utilities were strong. Banks too....

Travis Lundy

Tencent (0700.HK): Revisiting Wechat Channels

We revisit our investment thesis about Wechat Channels and see significantly higher-than-expected profitability. We expect the product to generate...

Eric Chen

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jul 2024); ETFs Get Bought, Banks Have Gone Missing

SOUTHBOUND saw net inflow through HK Connect for the 25th week in a row. Three ETFs were in the top 6 net buys, and only one bank in the top 20....

Travis Lundy

Tencent/Netease: Zero for Major Names; Industry Revenue Growth Flattish in First Half

We analyzed the July China game approval data. Though China is approving games at an speed that is upbeat for investors, concerns remains as to...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Jan 2024); ETFs and High Div SOEs Again BIG Buys, Tech Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows were positive on the week but most of the net buying was in the big two ETFs. The trend of buying low PER high div SOEs continues....

Travis Lundy

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