Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.</li>
<li>Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell. </li>
<li>No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer for HK$18.6bn on strong two-way volumes. The top three net buys of the week were SOE banks. Some may be Central Huijin.
Some of this may be driven by the dividend w/h tax cancellation on H divs and by significant H-share discounts, but high-div CNOOC was the biggest net sell. 
No end to the inflows, and HK valuations are not at a place where they would hamper continued flows. Alibaba making HK a Primary will spur more inflows over time.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024); Banks, Banks, Banks, Tencent, and Big SOEs

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The key takeaway from this earning season on the topic of generative AI (GAI) is that in-house generated content has the greatest potential for cost savings;</li>
<li>Taking a step further, mid-sized video platforms can also use AI to skip the curator layer, similar to Pinduoduo using algorithm to bypass small merchants to connect directly to factories;</li>
<li>We also notice that general media platforms with ample advertising inventories tend to perform better with AI's help, which is why ads of Tencent's advertising performed better than Baidu's.</li>
</ul>


The key takeaway from this earning season on the topic of generative AI (GAI) is that in-house generated content has the greatest potential for cost savings;
Taking a step further, mid-sized video platforms can also use AI to skip the curator layer, similar to Pinduoduo using algorithm to bypass small merchants to connect directly to factories;
We also notice that general media platforms with ample advertising inventories tend to perform better with AI's help, which is why ads of Tencent's advertising performed better than Baidu's.


A Few Generative AI Takeaways From C1Q24 Earnings

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

<ul>
<li>Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;</li>
<li>Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. </li>
<li>We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.</li>
</ul>


Tencent reported C1Q24 revenue, IFRS operating profit, and IFRS net income in-line, 9.1%, 26% vs. our estimates and in-line, 16%, 21% vs. consensus;
Game revenues were below our expectations while advertising was above, leading to a gross margin beat of 2.73ppt, powered by video account and AI. 
We raised our TP to HK$450 to reflect the shift to better-margin revenue mix and upcoming revenue acceleration.


[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul>
<li>Microsoft's China AI teams relocate due to US rules, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 development for improved connectivity and performance.</li>
<li>Amazon's stake in Alchip suggests potential synergy in AI tech and expanded market reach, while Kymco launches eco-friendly e-scooter.</li>
<li>Tencent Cloud partners with BRI and Hi Cloud Indo for banking innovation, while Veolia opens first regeneration plant in China for sustainable water treatment. Tron Future secures funding for counter-drone tech.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft's China AI teams relocate due to US rules, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 development for improved connectivity and performance.
Amazon's stake in Alchip suggests potential synergy in AI tech and expanded market reach, while Kymco launches eco-friendly e-scooter.
Tencent Cloud partners with BRI and Hi Cloud Indo for banking innovation, while Veolia opens first regeneration plant in China for sustainable water treatment. Tron Future secures funding for counter-drone tech.


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Tencent announced 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-IFRS net income grew by 54% YoY to RMB50.3bn, 17/16% ahead of our/consensus estimate, as Tencent’s quality growth strategy drove better-than-expected GPM expansion (+7.1ppt YoY).</li><li>We expect the GPM expansion to continue in the rest of FY24, driven by the increased contribution from high-margin revenue streams such as Video Accounts (VA) and Mini Games.</li><li>The improving profitability should in turn support Tencent’s shareholder return. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tencent announced 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-IFRS net income grew by 54% YoY to RMB50.3bn, 17/16% ahead of our/consensus estimate, as Tencent’s quality growth strategy drove better-than-expected GPM expansion (+7.1ppt YoY).We expect the GPM expansion to continue in the rest of FY24, driven by the increased contribution from high-margin revenue streams such as Video Accounts (VA) and Mini Games.The improving profitability should in turn support Tencent’s shareholder return. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent (700 HK) - Quality Growth Strategy Underpins Strong Earnings Growth

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024); Banks, Banks, Banks, Tencent, and Big SOEs

SOUTHBOUND's streak of weekly net inflows continues unabated. Some of the flows may be driven by Central Huijin buying banks, and some may be...

Travis Lundy

A Few Generative AI Takeaways From C1Q24 Earnings

C1Q24 generative AI has made explicit impact on listco earnings. We summarized the observed trends and found China has a great deal of potential to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

Tencent's C1Q24 revenue and profit in-line with estimates, boosted by advertising and better-margin revenue mix, leading to raised TP of HK$450.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

Microsoft AI teams relocating, Wi-Fi 7 advancements, Amazon's stake in Alchip, Kymco e-scooter launch, Tencent Cloud partnership, Veolia's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tencent (700 HK) - Quality Growth Strategy Underpins Strong Earnings Growth

Tencent announced 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-IFRS net income grew by...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 17 May 2024); Banks, Banks, Banks, Tencent, and Big SOEs

SOUTHBOUND's streak of weekly net inflows continues unabated. Some of the flows may be driven by Central Huijin buying banks, and some may be...

Travis Lundy

A Few Generative AI Takeaways From C1Q24 Earnings

C1Q24 generative AI has made explicit impact on listco earnings. We summarized the observed trends and found China has a great deal of potential to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Tencent (700 HK, BUY, TP HK$450) TP Change]: Market Finally Starting to Recognize Tencent’s Value

​Tencent's C1Q24 revenue and profit in-line with estimates, boosted by advertising and better-margin revenue mix, leading to raised TP of HK$450.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (17-May-2024): Microsoft China AI teams may relocate due to US restrictions.

Microsoft AI teams relocating, Wi-Fi 7 advancements, Amazon's stake in Alchip, Kymco e-scooter launch, Tencent Cloud partnership, Veolia's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tencent (700 HK) - Quality Growth Strategy Underpins Strong Earnings Growth

Tencent announced 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB159.5bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; non-IFRS net income grew by...

CMB International

Tencent's C1Q24 revenue and profit in-line with estimates, boosted by advertising and better-margin revenue mix, leading to raised TP of HK$450.