HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities And / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a> will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. </li>
<li>We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  </li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) will benefit from Ant Financial's technology innovation capabilities, customer group, digitalisation, and cross-selling to over 640m of Alipay users.
With Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) having an average PER of 19x for 2020-2025, we use 15x for BSS after a conservative estimate of 50% earnings growth in 5 years. 
We value BSS at HK$8.13, but this is a conservative estimate. Its earnings growth is likely to be faster than our forecast, given its better leverage on the new parent.  


Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).</li>
<li>There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> will have passives buying, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> switches to a sell.</li>
</ul>


Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.

NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.


Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.</li>
<li>On the placements front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) is said to be gearing up for an IPO launch this month, as per media reports.
On the placements front, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week that we covered.


ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) - CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.</li>
<li>The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a "let's buy what US Persons cannot" moment.</li>
<li>No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity was again not stronger per day than the previous several weeks, but SB Net Buying was again BIG. Given the change in Tencent, remarkable even.
The story was follow-through, but SMIC and Xiaomi were also big buys. This is shaping up to be a "let's buy what US Persons cannot" moment.
No sectors saw net selling through CCASS data five days to Weds. Top 10 activity was quite concentrated this week. Very few stray names.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.</li>
<li>Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent's approved game. </li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the January batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening.
Tencent and CMGE received one approval for January, respectively. We also highlight perplexity of Tencent's approved game. 


Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent (700 HK)

Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) - CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

A decent week for flows on a gross basis but not on a net basis. Net buying was on the weak side though tech was still a net buy. Especially Friday.

Travis Lundy

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

We analyzed the game approval issued by NPPA for Chinese online game players for the month of January. Game approvals for large players are slow so...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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Bright Smart (1428 HK): An Attempt to Derive a Value

​Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (5 May 2025) - CATL, Chery, Ather, Drinda, Eco-Shop, Green Tea, DN Sol, Lotte Glo, Hanwha

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 24 Jan 2025); Again Big Net Buying by SB, Again on Tech

A decent week for flows on a gross basis but not on a net basis. Net buying was on the weak side though tech was still a net buy. Especially Friday.

Travis Lundy

Tencent/Netease: One Game Approval for Tencent in Jan and the Perplexity

We analyzed the game approval issued by NPPA for Chinese online game players for the month of January. Game approvals for large players are slow so...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bright Smart benefits from Ant Financial's technology and customer base, with potentially faster-than-forecast growth. At a 50% 5-year growth and...