Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tencent announced 3Q22 results on 16 Nov. Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.</li><li>9M22 revenue was down by 1.5% YoY. Quarterly Non-IFRS net income grew 1.6% YoY after the decline for 4 consecutive quarters, and reached RMB32.3bn in 3Q22, beating consensus estimate by 7%.</li><li>The earning beat was mostly helped by effective control in S&amp;M expenses (-32% YoY) &amp; staff costs (low single-digit YoY growth excl. one-off severance costs).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent announced 3Q22 results on 16 Nov. Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.9M22 revenue was down by 1.5% YoY. Quarterly Non-IFRS net income grew 1.6% YoY after the decline for 4 consecutive quarters, and reached RMB32.3bn in 3Q22, beating consensus estimate by 7%.The earning beat was mostly helped by effective control in S&amp;M expenses (-32% YoY) &amp; staff costs (low single-digit YoY growth excl. one-off severance costs).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tencent  (700 HK) – Return to earnings growth track

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After distributing over 450m of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> shares to its shareholders late last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.</li>
<li>Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shares to Tencent shareholders.</li>
<li>Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.</li>
</ul>


After distributing over 450m of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares to its shareholders late last year, Tencent (700 HK) took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.
Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m Meituan (3690 HK) shares to Tencent shareholders.
Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.


Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.</li>
<li>Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.</li>
</ul>


In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank.
Delhivery is an online logistics service provider which covers express parcel delivery, heavy goods delivery, part truckload (PTL) freight, truckload (TL) freight, supply chain solutions, cross border solutions etc.
In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.


Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market</li><li>Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20</li><li>Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation</li></ul>

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest marketXi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

China

Tencent Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides Internet and mobile value-added services (VAS), online advertising, and e-commerce transactions. Tencent Holdings offers services to users worldwide.

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Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Tencent (700 HK) – Return to earnings growth track

Total revenue declined by 1.6% YoY but grew by 4.5% QoQ to RMB140.1bn in 3Q22, in line with consensus/our estimate of RMB141.4/140.6bn.

CMB International

Sea & Pinduoduo Are in Dangerous Territory With Tencent in Disposal Mode

Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo and Sea Ltd could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Delhivery IPO Lockup Expiry - US$2.8bn Lockup Release, with Softbank the Largest Holder

In May 2022, Delhivery raised around US$680m in its India IPO, the company is backed by a host of financial investors, the largest being Softbank....

Sumeet Singh

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market. Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20.

Caixin Global

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