CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Eight stock remains, and six stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 96% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 48%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Eight stock remains, and six stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 96% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 48%


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.</li>
<li>The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.</li>
<li>Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. </li>
</ul>


Telenor and CP Group will proceed with the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger but without the VTO due to missing the VTO conditions precedent deadline.
The likely real reason for the VTO cancellation was the realisation that the VTO prices were too generous, particularly in the context of the NBTC's harsh conditions.
Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and potential tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks. 


DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> while buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.</li>
<li>The passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.</li>
</ul>


Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to sell Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Emtek (EMTK IJ) while buying GoTo (GOTO IJ) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ). 
There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact is not material on most of the stocks.
The passive buying on GoTo (GOTO IJ) on Monday offers an avenue to exit the stock ahead of the huge lock-up expiry on 30 November.


IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

<ul>
<li>The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> to merge. </li>
<li>The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.</li>
<li>The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.</li>
</ul>


The NBTC Board approved the merger by acknowledging by a vote of 3-2 the intention for True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) and Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) to merge. 
The NBTC issued several conditions on the mergers, such as price ceilings, service quality, innovation and spectrum-sharing with MVNOs. The implementation of the conditions will be monitored for five years.
The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied swap ratio of 10.221x.


DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Global Digital Niaga Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-digital-niaga-pt-blibli" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34881:1" rel="noopener"> PT Global Digital Trade (1437710D IJ)</a>  (BliBli) aims to raise up to US$530m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



 PT Global Digital Trade (1437710D IJ)  (BliBli) aims to raise up to US$530m in its Indonesian IPO.
BliBli provides e-commerce services across Indonesia to both retail consumers and institutions
In this note, we'll talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back

Indonesia

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk is a telecommunication company that provides a variety of domestic telecommunications services such as telephone, telex, telegram, satellite, and leased lines services.  The Company also offers electronic mail, mobile communication, and cellular phone services.

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Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 39

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Six stock remains, and eight stocks added to our portfolio.

A. Stotz Investment Research

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied...

Arun George

PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back

BliBli aims to raise up to US$530m in its Indonesian IPO, the company provides ecommerce and travel services in Indonesia. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 39

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Six stock remains, and eight stocks added to our portfolio.

A. Stotz Investment Research

DTAC/True Merger to Proceed but Without the VTOs

Merger completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 8.750x vs the exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and...

Arun George

IDX30/​LQ45/​IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday

Float and capping changes will result in selling on BBCA & EMTK and buying on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI, BBRI & ASII. This is an opportunity to sell some...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Clears the Deal with Conditions

The VTOs will likely launch in 4Q22/1Q23. Play the merger approval by buying the share price ratio of 9.020x at an 11.8% discount to the implied...

Arun George

PT Global Digital Trade (BliBli) Pre-IPO - The Positives - Wide Offering, Strong COVID Bounce Back

BliBli aims to raise up to US$530m in its Indonesian IPO, the company provides ecommerce and travel services in Indonesia. In this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes on Monday