IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2385783/nbtc-preps-mega-merger-measures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bangkok Post reports</a> that the Thai regulator (NBTC) will propose ten remedial measures to approve the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>The NBTC board is not expected to issue a final decision as it waits for an interpretation by the Council of State if it can approve or reject the merger.</li>
<li>The current share price ratio is 9.511x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 9.2% and 10.7%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The Bangkok Post reports that the Thai regulator (NBTC) will propose ten remedial measures to approve the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
The NBTC board is not expected to issue a final decision as it waits for an interpretation by the Council of State if it can approve or reject the merger.
The current share price ratio is 9.511x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 9.2% and 10.7%, respectively.


DTAC/​True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>After <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axiata-group-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:944:1" rel="noopener">Axiata  (AXIATA MK)</a></strong> completed the acquisition of 66.03% i<strong>n <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net (LINK IJ)</a></strong> on the 22 June, Axiata was obligated to undertake a mandatory offer for the remaining 33.97%. </li>
<li>The MTO commences today and concludes on the 28 September. Payment will be the 6 October.</li>
<li>There are no conditions attached to the MTO. Play the spread, where available.</li>
</ul>


After Axiata  (AXIATA MK) completed the acquisition of 66.03% in Link Net (LINK IJ) on the 22 June, Axiata was obligated to undertake a mandatory offer for the remaining 33.97%. 
The MTO commences today and concludes on the 28 September. Payment will be the 6 October.
There are no conditions attached to the MTO. Play the spread, where available.


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.</li>
<li>ASEAN reversal shows EM investors moving from underweight to overweight since late 2021, driven by a record ownership and a rising number of funds positioned overweight the benchmark.</li>
<li>Indonesia and Thailand the key drivers and to a lesser extent Malaysia.   The Philippines has been notably absent from the move higher, whilst Singapore allocations fell over the same period.</li>
</ul>


Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.
ASEAN reversal shows EM investors moving from underweight to overweight since late 2021, driven by a record ownership and a rising number of funds positioned overweight the benchmark.
Indonesia and Thailand the key drivers and to a lesser extent Malaysia.   The Philippines has been notably absent from the move higher, whilst Singapore allocations fell over the same period.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

Indonesia

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk is a telecommunication company that provides a variety of domestic telecommunications services such as telephone, telex, telegram, satellite, and leased lines services.  The Company also offers electronic mail, mobile communication, and cellular phone services.

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Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

Reports suggest that the NBTC will propose ten measures to approve the merger. At the last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is...

Arun George

Link Net: Axiata's MTO Kicks Off Today

Currently, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.0%/10.9%, assuming 6 October payment. There is zero blow-up risk on this. But this is a tight...

David Blennerhassett

EM Funds Raise ASEAN Allocations

Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.

Steven Holden

Screening for GEMs: August 2022

An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100...

Wium Malan, CFA

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DTAC/​True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

Reports suggest that the NBTC will propose ten measures to approve the merger. At the last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is...

Arun George

Link Net: Axiata's MTO Kicks Off Today

Currently, trading at a gross/annualised spread of 1.0%/10.9%, assuming 6 October payment. There is zero blow-up risk on this. But this is a tight...

David Blennerhassett

EM Funds Raise ASEAN Allocations

Regional rebalance occurring among active EM funds. Out of EMEA and the major Asian nations and in to ASEAN, MENA and South America.

Steven Holden

Screening for GEMs: August 2022

An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100...

Wium Malan, CFA

IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

DTAC/True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI