Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The inventory adjustment of consumer electronics products is nearing completion and industrial products will end later.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silergy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13998:1" rel="noopener">Silergy Corp (6415 TT)</a>'s short-term growth momentum comes from the demand of new smartphone, while its long-term growth momentum comes from the automotive, new energy and high-performance computing area.</li>
<li>In 1H24, the pro forma gross profit margin can be maintained at around 50%.</li>
</ul>


The inventory adjustment of consumer electronics products is nearing completion and industrial products will end later.

Silergy Corp (6415 TT)'s short-term growth momentum comes from the demand of new smartphone, while its long-term growth momentum comes from the automotive, new energy and high-performance computing area.
In 1H24, the pro forma gross profit margin can be maintained at around 50%.


Silergy (6415.TT): Silergy Expect to Grow Slightly in 4Q23F.

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q23F results will be higher than 3Q23, but lower than 4Q22.</li>
<li>If the market is unchanged, and it will be slightly upside in 2024F market. </li>
<li>For the target of GM 10% is still unchanged in 2025F.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q23F results will be higher than 3Q23, but lower than 4Q22.
If the market is unchanged, and it will be slightly upside in 2024F market. 
For the target of GM 10% is still unchanged in 2025F.


Hon Hai (2317.TT): If the Market Is Unchanged, and It Will Be Slightly Upside in 2024 Market.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD633.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD512mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Taiwan Cement, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 10th which has an aggregated holding worth USD633.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD512mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Taiwan Cement, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 10th): TSMC, Taiwan Cement, Wistron

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.</li>
<li>SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance. </li>
<li>Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.</li>
</ul>


Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F.
SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and allowed equipment vendors to submit orders in advance. 
Currently, only a few manufacturers are stockpiling smartphones in response to this wave. The overall industry remains relatively stable.


SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;</li>
<li>More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.</li>
<li>
<strong>Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall</strong>: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways post model updated: 1. most foundries miss 4Q23 but y/y decline to decelerate; 2. y/y sales passed the trough but utilization later; 3. wafer shipment down 18-20% in 2023;
More takeaways: 4. different mix with different price; 5. some are defensive this year, some might have larger upside for 2024; 6. gross margin still falling and capex cut needed.

Automotive/Industrial lags only not beginning of the fall: Smartphone, pc, consumer/IOT foundry orders might recover earlier than automotive/industrial for 2-3 quarters, resulting fablesses in these area to outperform.


Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Silergy (6415.TT): Silergy Expect to Grow Slightly in 4Q23F.

It will grow slightly in 4Q23F. The inventory adjustment of consumer electronics products is nearing completion and industrial products, including...

Patrick Liao

Hon Hai (2317.TT): If the Market Is Unchanged, and It Will Be Slightly Upside in 2024 Market.

The 4Q23F results will be higher than 3Q23, but lower than 4Q22. If the market is unchanged, and it will be slightly upside in 2024F market. For...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 10th): TSMC, Taiwan Cement, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Taiwan Cement, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SMIC (981.HK): Probably A Double U-Shape Correction for Around 2 Years Until the End of 2024F.

Based on the some judgments, SMIC consider it will be relatively flat demand in 2024F. SMIC took into consideration geopolitical instability and...

Patrick Liao

Takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024

Seven takeaways Post Our Global Foundry Model Updated and Initial View on 2024 foundry shipment, blended wafer price, sales, and capex growth/decline

Andrew Lu

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