Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We analyse our Global fund universe to find out the consensus overweight and underweight exposures, together with the consensus and under-owned stock holdings.</li>
<li>Consensus overweights are led by Developed Europe, Health Care and countries in the EMEA region.  On a stock level, Microsoft and Alphabet are the most widely held companies.</li>
<li>Consensus underweights are led by Asia and selected industry groups such as Telcos and Banks.  Raytheon Technologies and Al Rajhi Bank are among the most under-owned stock in the world.</li>
</ul>


We analyse our Global fund universe to find out the consensus overweight and underweight exposures, together with the consensus and under-owned stock holdings.
Consensus overweights are led by Developed Europe, Health Care and countries in the EMEA region.  On a stock level, Microsoft and Alphabet are the most widely held companies.
Consensus underweights are led by Asia and selected industry groups such as Telcos and Banks.  Raytheon Technologies and Al Rajhi Bank are among the most under-owned stock in the world.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's 3Q22 earnings beat expectations, and the shares reacted positively, rising 10.7%.</li>
<li>The company announced $3bn of cost savings for 2023E and $8-10bn in annual cost savings by 2025E. 2023E earnings guidance will be provided at the company's February Investor Day.</li>
<li>Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the companies into its next earnings.</li>
</ul>


Intel's 3Q22 earnings beat expectations, and the shares reacted positively, rising 10.7%.
The company announced $3bn of cost savings for 2023E and $8-10bn in annual cost savings by 2025E. 2023E earnings guidance will be provided at the company's February Investor Day.
Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the companies into its next earnings.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​​UMC Long/​​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.</li>
<li>CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.</li>
<li>Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.</li>
</ul>


Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
CEO Gelsinger's PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn't bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
Datacenter...which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter... an astonishing fall.


Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC &amp; TSMC pair.  Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.</li>
<li>Intel going ex-div early November. We note Intel's dividend yield is much higher than TSMC's and Intel's dividend level appears well covered by even falling earnings.</li>
<li>Key upcoming events: Likely to be mostly related to Intel for the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC &amp; TSMC pair.  Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.
Intel going ex-div early November. We note Intel's dividend yield is much higher than TSMC's and Intel's dividend level appears well covered by even falling earnings.
Key upcoming events: Likely to be mostly related to Intel for the next two weeks.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​UMC Long/​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

<ul>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium has rebounded and is high relative to its recent trading range.</li>
<li>ASE Technology's ADR premium has spiked to a historically very high level.</li>
<li>UMC ADRs are also trading at a relatively high premium.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's ADR premium has rebounded and is high relative to its recent trading range.
ASE Technology's ADR premium has spiked to a historically very high level.
UMC ADRs are also trading at a relatively high premium.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

Global Equity: Consensus Positioning

We screen 359 Global Equity funds to find the consensus overweights and underweights across regions, countries, sectors, industries and stocks.

Steven Holden

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC & TSMC pair. Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan ADR premiums have generally risen across the board recently. TSMC's premium is high if one looks at the most recent trading range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global Equity: Consensus Positioning

We screen 359 Global Equity funds to find the consensus overweights and underweights across regions, countries, sectors, industries and stocks.

Steven Holden

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​​UMC Long/​​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

Intel has outperformed TSMC and UMC since our pre-Intel Innovation Conference catalyst piece. Intel could still re-rate further relative to the...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

Intel's cost cutting program is overly optimistic, much like every other forecast Pat Gelsinger has made since becoming CEO two years ago. Fade...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​​UMC Long/​​​​Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments

Intel's earnings this week is a key potential catalyst for the INTC & TSMC pair. Look for comments related to U.S. chip restrictions for China.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: TSMC Premium Near-Term High, ASE Spikes, UMC High as Well

Taiwan ADR premiums have generally risen across the board recently. TSMC's premium is high if one looks at the most recent trading range.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Results Drive Share Spike, Still Can Re-Rate

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Intel Earnings This Week, Potential Positive Comments