Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reduced 2023 revenue guidance when it reported results during the week. A weaker than expected economy in China and general economic weakness was blamed.</li>
<li>However, the company's results beat Street expectations and management maintained its long-term gross margin guidance of 53%+, which implies the company maintaining a structurally higher margin.</li>
<li>Shares fell after results on a profit taking excuse -- We however note that latest guidance also reaffirmed multi-year strength ahead. Structural Long.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reduced 2023 revenue guidance when it reported results during the week. A weaker than expected economy in China and general economic weakness was blamed.
However, the company's results beat Street expectations and management maintained its long-term gross margin guidance of 53%+, which implies the company maintaining a structurally higher margin.
Shares fell after results on a profit taking excuse -- We however note that latest guidance also reaffirmed multi-year strength ahead. Structural Long.


TSMC: 2023 Guidance Reduction Excuse To Take Profit? Guidance Also Affirmed Long-Term Bullishness

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. </li>
<li>Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. </li>
<li>The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.</li>
</ul>


While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. 
Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. 
The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Voltronic Power Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ownership levels in Voltronic Power Technology rise as EM funds open new positions.</li>
<li>A record 15.7% of EM long-only funds own a position, with Wasatch and Morgan Stanley among the high conviction holders.</li>
<li>Voltronic Power Technology is now the 12th most widely owned stock in Taiwan and the 7th most overweighted company.  </li>
</ul>


Ownership levels in Voltronic Power Technology rise as EM funds open new positions.
A record 15.7% of EM long-only funds own a position, with Wasatch and Morgan Stanley among the high conviction holders.
Voltronic Power Technology is now the 12th most widely owned stock in Taiwan and the 7th most overweighted company.  


<ul>
<li>TSMC will report its 2Q23 results today in the afternoon Taiwan time. Look for key readthroughs from the company in terms of robustness of the AI boom and PC recovery.</li>
<li>AMD's Chairman and CEO arrived in Taiwan and met with key supply chain partners -- Related stocks are surging; ASML beat expectations and raised its guidance.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI,  PC-linked, and AMD-linked shares are flying; Our recent Memory Monitor piece also highlights signs that the DRAM cycle has bottomed.</li>
</ul>


TSMC will report its 2Q23 results today in the afternoon Taiwan time. Look for key readthroughs from the company in terms of robustness of the AI boom and PC recovery.
AMD's Chairman and CEO arrived in Taiwan and met with key supply chain partners -- Related stocks are surging; ASML beat expectations and raised its guidance.
Taiwan AI,  PC-linked, and AMD-linked shares are flying; Our recent Memory Monitor piece also highlights signs that the DRAM cycle has bottomed.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results Today; ASML Beats & Raises; AMD in Taiwan Sparking Rallies

<ul>
<li>TSMC: 9.9% premium, continues to stay above one standard deviation from historical median... Earnings coming this week.</li>
<li>UMC: 0.0% ADR premium... Trading on par with local shares... Earnings next week.</li>
<li>Chunghwa Telecom: -0.8% discount represents relatively deep discount vs. history.</li>
</ul>


TSMC: 9.9% premium, continues to stay above one standard deviation from historical median... Earnings coming this week.
UMC: 0.0% ADR premium... Trading on par with local shares... Earnings next week.
Chunghwa Telecom: -0.8% discount represents relatively deep discount vs. history.


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Staying High Ahead of Earnings This Week; UMC at Par

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)

TSMC: 2023 Guidance Reduction Excuse To Take Profit? Guidance Also Affirmed Long-Term Bullishness

Results beat Street expectations and management maintained its long-term gross margin guidance of 53%+, which implies the company maintaining a...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

The US labor market remains uncomfortably tight, keeping bond yields high, providing massive pressure on overvalued Big Tech stocks to deliver on...

Jeroen Blokland

Voltronic Power: Rising Up the Ranks

Ownership levels in Voltronic Power Technology rise to record levels as EM funds open new positions. It now stands as the 7th most overweighted...

Steven Holden

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Results Today; ASML Beats & Raises; AMD in Taiwan Sparking Rallies

TSMC will report its 2Q23 results today in the afternoon Taiwan time. Look for key readthroughs from the company in terms of robustness of the AI...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Staying High Ahead of Earnings This Week; UMC at Par

Earnings events will be coming over the next few weeks for all of our tracked names. UMC, CHT look interesting in terms of room for ADR spreads to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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