Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW/LIKE TO KEEP ABREAST. 
</li>
<li>
OVERSEAS: Powell in focus - little risk appetite; Semi 2023 forecast; China to vaccinate seniors - drives China-listed rally; iPhone Production hit up to ~$8bn; 
</li>
<li>
JAPAN: USDJPY ¥138.69; NKY Fut -0.2% ahead of Powell speech; JGB 10Y hit 0.25%-BOJ shift soon ?; Sony =&gt;the Metaverse; JP Bank invests ¥100bn in start-ups; Nomura cuts costs 
</li>
</ul>



Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW/LIKE TO KEEP ABREAST. 


OVERSEAS: Powell in focus - little risk appetite; Semi 2023 forecast; China to vaccinate seniors - drives China-listed rally; iPhone Production hit up to ~$8bn;  


JAPAN: USDJPY ¥138.69; NKY Fut -0.2% ahead of Powell speech; JGB 10Y hit 0.25%-BOJ shift soon ?; Sony =&gt;the Metaverse; JP Bank invests ¥100bn in start-ups; Nomura cuts costs 



Good Morning Japan | Powell in Focus: Big Bets off the Table

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Lygend Resources & Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a>, a nickel play, has launched its IPO to raise up to US$595 million. </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lygend-resources-technology-ipo-riding-the-wave" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:84558" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology IPO: Riding the Wave</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we present our forecasts and look at valuation. Lygend is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate.</li>
</ul>



Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK), a nickel play, has launched its IPO to raise up to US$595 million. 
We previously discussed the IPO in Lygend Resources &amp; Technology IPO: Riding the Wave. 
In this note, we present our forecasts and look at valuation. Lygend is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate.


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (LR HK)</a>, a nickel play, is set to open its books for an HKEx IPO to raise US$700-800 million, according to press reports.</li>
<li>Lygend had the largest nickel ore trading volume in China in 2019, 2020 and 2021, with a market share of 26.8% in 2021.</li>
<li>The fundamentals are solid as the consolidation of HPL has delivered strong growth and an improved margin profile, at manageable leverage.</li>
</ul>



Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (LR HK), a nickel play, is set to open its books for an HKEx IPO to raise US$700-800 million, according to press reports.
Lygend had the largest nickel ore trading volume in China in 2019, 2020 and 2021, with a market share of 26.8% in 2021.
The fundamentals are solid as the consolidation of HPL has delivered strong growth and an improved margin profile, at manageable leverage.


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Riding the Wave

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SMM beat at the PTP level by 10% driven by the surge in nickel prices but guided for just ¥194bn undershooting consensus by 9.3%. </li>
<li>We do not find guidance credible at all as it would defy historical trends to a very large degree. </li>
<li>In fact we believe that excluding one-off gains from the sale of Sierra Gorda, PTP could actually be up YoY.</li>
</ul>


SMM beat at the PTP level by 10% driven by the surge in nickel prices but guided for just ¥194bn undershooting consensus by 9.3%. 
We do not find guidance credible at all as it would defy historical trends to a very large degree. 
In fact we believe that excluding one-off gains from the sale of Sierra Gorda, PTP could actually be up YoY.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.</li>
<li>Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.</li>
<li>Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remain bearish, as do indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, China, Europe, and Germany.
Until we see these indexes break above downtrends and key resistance levels, we cannot be bullish.
Remain overweight Energy and Materials with the secular commodity bull market intact. Defensive Sectors are also hitting 1-2-year RS highs; we recommend overweights to Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples.


Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Japan

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

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Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP)

Good Morning Japan | Powell in Focus: Big Bets off the Table

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW/LIKE TO...

Mark Chadwick

Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we present our forecasts and look at valuation. Lygend is attractively valued at the IPO price range. We would participate.

Arun George

Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Riding the Wave

The fundamentals are solid as the consolidation of HPL has delivered strong growth and an improved margin profile, at manageable leverage.

Arun George

SMM – Guidance Makes Little Sense

We believe SMM's share price implies a drastic decline in commodity prices and while that is not impossible we believe it skews risk-reward...

Mio Kato

Opportunities Within Energy and Materials

Global indexes remain below our key lines in the sand of $54 on $ACWX, $75.25 on $EFA, and the 200-day MA on $ACWI. As long as prices are below...

Vermilion Research

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