Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices</li>
<li>Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan</li>
<li>Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase</li>
</ul>


Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices
Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan
Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase


Sumitomo Metal Mining -  A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

<ul>
<li>While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point</li>
<li>Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications</li>
<li>Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July</li>
</ul>


While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point
Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications
Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July


MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue - 98.18% Taken Up

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

JX Advanced Metals / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.</li>
<li>ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.</li>
<li>Our SOTP valuation suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a>’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.</li>
</ul>


JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.
ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.
Our SOTP valuation suggests that JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.


JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).</li>
<li>Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share. </li>
<li>Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO. </li>
</ul>


On 3 March, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) announced that the IPO will be offered at ¥810 to ¥820 per share (down from the initial indicative price of ¥862 per share).
Our base case valuation per share is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to ¥820 per share. 
Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative view of this JX Advanced Metal IPO. 


JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

Japan

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

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Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP)

Sumitomo Metal Mining - A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

This miner has extremely conservative forecasts, some scarcity value, and a strong balance sheet for potential future buybacks and dividends.

Rikki Malik

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue - 98.18% Taken Up

Good entry point for investors as excess rights shares receive strong demand, trading to begin on July 16th, and copper has had its correction

Rikki Malik

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

JX Advance set its IPO pricing lower than expected at JPY810-820 . Our SOTP valuation suggests shares are reasonably priced but the IPO comes at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation per share of JX Advance Metals is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Sumitomo Metal Mining - A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

This miner has extremely conservative forecasts, some scarcity value, and a strong balance sheet for potential future buybacks and dividends.

Rikki Malik

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue - 98.18% Taken Up

​Good entry point for investors as excess rights shares receive strong demand, trading to begin on July 16th, and copper has had its correction

Rikki Malik

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

​JX Advance set its IPO pricing lower than expected at JPY810-820 . Our SOTP valuation suggests shares are reasonably priced but the IPO comes at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

JX Advanced Metals IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation per share of JX Advance Metals is ¥863 which is 5.8% higher than the mid-point of the expected IPO price range of ¥810 to...

Douglas Kim

Good entry point for investors as excess rights shares receive strong demand, trading to begin on July 16th, and copper has had its correction

JX Advance set its IPO pricing lower than expected at JPY810-820 . Our SOTP valuation suggests shares are reasonably priced but the IPO comes at a...