Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two-Thirds of the way through the review period, we see 7 stocks migrating from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks from LargeCap to MidCap, and 1 new listing added to LargeCap.</li>
<li>Post listing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (1248Z IN)</a> should be added to the LargeCap segment while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delhivery-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33471:1" rel="noopener">Delhivery (1058656D IN)</a> should be added to the MidCap segment.</li>
<li>On average, stocks expected to migrate from Mid Cap to Large Cap have outperformed. Stocks expected to migrate from the Large Cap to Mid Cap segment have performed the worst.</li>
</ul>


Two-Thirds of the way through the review period, we see 7 stocks migrating from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks from LargeCap to MidCap, and 1 new listing added to LargeCap.
Post listing, Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (1248Z IN) should be added to the LargeCap segment while Delhivery (1058656D IN) should be added to the MidCap segment.
On average, stocks expected to migrate from Mid Cap to Large Cap have outperformed. Stocks expected to migrate from the Large Cap to Mid Cap segment have performed the worst.


India: Preview of Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Metals and Steel companies under our coverage to deliver robust Revenue/EBITDA growth on a YoY basis, primarily on account of strong underlying commodity prices and robust sales volumes</li><li>As the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, the market priced in the risk of supply disruption emerging from the conflict and consequently, aluminium and steel prices rallied further QoQ.</li><li>The companies’ EBITDA margins, however, are expected to remain flattish or marginally decline YoY and QoQ mainly due to higher coal and energy prices. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Metals and Steel companies under our coverage to deliver robust Revenue/EBITDA growth on a YoY basis, primarily on account of strong underlying commodity prices and robust sales volumesAs the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, the market priced in the risk of supply disruption emerging from the conflict and consequently, aluminium and steel prices rallied further QoQ.The companies’ EBITDA margins, however, are expected to remain flattish or marginally decline YoY and QoQ mainly due to higher coal and energy prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals and Mining: Strong Commodity Prices to Drive Profitability; Deleveraging to Continue

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Russia Ukraine conflict has provided traction to global metal prices.</li>
<li>During YTD CY22, a healthy rally has been witnessed in both ferrous and non-ferrous metals.</li>
<li>During YTD CY22 (January 1-March 10, 2022), aluminium prices on the LME increased by ~21% to US$3409/tonne.</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>


The Russia Ukraine conflict has provided traction to global metal prices.
During YTD CY22, a healthy rally has been witnessed in both ferrous and non-ferrous metals.
During YTD CY22 (January 1-March 10, 2022), aluminium prices on the LME increased by ~21% to US$3409/tonne.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries: Geopolitical Conflict Provides Traction to Metal Prices

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SAIL’s EBITDA/tonne witnessed pressure in Q3FY22 mainly due to higher coking coal prices.</li><li>Saleable steel production came in line with our estimate and stood robust at 4.4 Mnt, up over 5% YoY and 1% QoQ</li><li>We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and value it at 4.0x FY24E EBITDA to arrive at a target price of Rs 125/share (Rs 150/share earlier), implying an upside of 21% from the CMP</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

SAIL’s EBITDA/tonne witnessed pressure in Q3FY22 mainly due to higher coking coal prices.Saleable steel production came in line with our estimate and stood robust at 4.4 Mnt, up over 5% YoY and 1% QoQWe maintain a BUY rating on the stock and value it at 4.0x FY24E EBITDA to arrive at a target price of Rs 125/share (Rs 150/share earlier), implying an upside of 21% from the CMPContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SAIL: Margin Pressure To Persist In Q4; Steel Demand Outlook Positive

<ul><li>We initiate coverage on SAIL with a BUY recommendation and a Target Price (TP) of Rs 150/share, implying an upside of 44% from the CMP</li><li>While we expect steel margins to come under pressure in H2FY22, they are likely to recover post H2FY22 and remain above cycle average</li><li>Our optimism is based on the expectation of weak demand in China getting offset by lower production forecasts and China continuing to disincentivize steel exports</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We initiate coverage on SAIL with a BUY recommendation and a Target Price (TP) of Rs 150/share, implying an upside of 44% from the CMPWhile we expect steel margins to come under pressure in H2FY22, they are likely to recover post H2FY22 and remain above cycle averageOur optimism is based on the expectation of weak demand in China getting offset by lower production forecasts and China continuing to disincentivize steel exportsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SAIL: Bottomed Out Valuation; SAIL to Benefit from a Prolonged Steel Up-Cycle

India

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Jindal Stainless Ltd. is an integrated steel producer which manufactures a variety of steel products.  The Company's products include stainless steel plates, welded steel tubes, cold rolled strips and seamless tubes. Jindal also manufactures industrial machinery.

Lloyds Metals and Energy Ltd. manufactures sponge iron.  The Company also operates a cogeneration waste heat recovery plant to recover heat from its kilns.

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

Hindustan Copper Limited is a vertically integrated multi-unit copper producer in India engaged in a wide spectrum of activities ranging from mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining and manufacturing of copper cathodes, continuous cast wire rods and wire bars. The Company was the first Indian Copper producer to get ISO-9002 certificate for its Continuous Cast Wire Rod Plant.

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd manufactures stainless steel seamless and welded tubes and pipes in India. The Company's clientele base consists of chemical, fertilizer, petrochemicals, refinery, power, dairy, sugar and pharmaceutical industries. Ratnamani is a regular supplier to companies such as  BHEL, IOCL, GAIL, L&T and Reliance Industries Ltd.

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes steel and allied products. The Company markets sponge and pig iron, alloy carbon, mild steel billets, wire rods, and other steel products. Jai Balaji Industries serves customers throughout India.

Godawari Power and Ispat Ltd. manufactures steel.  The Company produces steel billets.

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPL) manufactures sponge iron, mild steel, and cement. The Company also produces power, conducts mining operations for iron ore and coal, and explores for natural gas and oil. JSPL, with its diverse resources, also contributes to the construction of infrastructure.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates coal businesses. The Company mines, processes, and distributes coal, cokes, coal chemical products, and other products. Huaibei Mining Holdings also produces methanol, crude benzene, ammonium sulfate, and other products.

Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets aluminum products and worsted woolen products. The Company's major aluminum offerings are electrolytic aluminum and section aluminum. Its woolen products include soybean fiber fabrics, silk fabrics, wool/flax fabrics and cashmere. Shandong also generates and supplies electricity.

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Ltd. explores, mines, and produces gold.  The Company holds interest in properties in eastern China.

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

India: Preview of Stock Reclassification for Active Funds

Two-thirds of the way through the review period, we see quite a few changes to the Large/Mid/Small Cap classification for Indian stocks. The upward...

Brian Freitas

Metals and Mining: Strong Commodity Prices to Drive Profitability; Deleveraging to Continue

We expect Metals and Steel companies under our coverage to deliver robust Revenue/EBITDA growth on a YoY basis, primarily on account of strong...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries: Geopolitical Conflict Provides Traction to Metal Prices

The Russia Ukraine conflict has provided traction to global metal prices. During YTD CY22, a healthy rally has been witnessed in both ferrous and...

ICICI Securities Limited

SAIL: Margin Pressure To Persist In Q4; Steel Demand Outlook Positive

We maintain a BUY rating on the stock and value it at 4.0x FY24E EBITDA to arrive at a target price of Rs 125/share (Rs 150/share earlier),...

Axis Direct

SAIL: Bottomed Out Valuation; SAIL to Benefit from a Prolonged Steel Up-Cycle

We initiate coverage on SAIL with a BUY recommendation and a Target Price (TP) of Rs 150/share, implying an upside of 44% from the CMP.

Axis Direct

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