Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

The spectacular sale of Elevators has transformed TKA’s balance sheet and the performance problems are finally being addressed. The cash from the sale will more than cover COVID losses, the restructuring and restore TKA to health. A management prioritising productivity and margin over revenue should transform both P&amp;L and cashflow. We estimated 16-19,000 job cuts, but with the new plan, 23,000 jobs and E6bn of revenue will be off-loaded. The supervisory board has a poor track record, but the shareholder appointees have been renewed so they may deliver. Investors can buy cash at a discount with a free option on a turnaround. On 2.5x EV/fEBITDA, it is time to BUY:

The spectacular sale of Elevators has transformed TKA’s balance sheet and the performance problems are finally being addressed. The cash from the sale will more than cover COVID losses, the restructuring and restore TKA to health. A management prioritising productivity and margin over revenue should transform both P&amp;L and cashflow. We estimated 16-19,000 job cuts, but with the new plan, 23,000 jobs and E6bn of revenue will be off-loaded. The supervisory board has a poor track record, but the shareholder appointees have been renewed so they may deliver. Investors can buy cash at a discount with a free option on a turnaround. On 2.5x EV/fEBITDA, it is time to BUY:

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In This Issue:Tencent Snaps up another stake, China launches its super-regulator, Latin America's election bonanza, is big oil regaining its mojo, Putin's Grey Cardinal see a Western Tsar rising, nonlinear finance, and Timber's come back.<div class="content-highlight">1.  Disclosure issues for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21716" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21716:1">Steinhoff International Holdin (SNH GR)</a> continue to get worse.  The company potentially failed to disclose a USD810m loan to a company where they had a minority stake.  The accusation is that this loan should have been disclosed under…</div>

In This Issue:Tencent Snaps up another stake, China launches its super-regulator, Latin America's election bonanza, is big oil regaining its mojo, Putin's Grey Cardinal see a Western Tsar rising, nonlinear finance, and Timber's come back.1.  Disclosure issues for Steinhoff International Holdin (SNH GR) continue to get worse.  The company potentially failed to disclose a USD810m loan to a company where they had a minority stake.  The accusation is that this loan should have been disclosed under…

<div class="content-highlight">1.  Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over Catalonia's government and police force this declaration is no real surprise.  Catalonia cannot force through independence, therefore we just see uncertainty growing for the Spanish economy.  We are growing more and more concerned about certain governments in Europe and the EU's support.  There is a clear difference in the way the UK has dealt with the issue…</div>

1.  Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over Catalonia's government and police force this declaration is no real surprise.  Catalonia cannot force through independence, therefore we just see uncertainty growing for the Spanish economy.  We are growing more and more concerned about certain governments in Europe and the EU's support.  There is a clear difference in the way the UK has dealt with the issue…

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Equity Bottom-Up

Bharat Heavy Electricals / Equity Bottom-Up

In the data released a few days back, m-junction services which is an online procurement and sales platform floated jointly by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14323" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1">Steel Authority Of India (SAIL IN)</a> (public sector steel producer in India) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20934" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> (a leading private sector steel producer) has reported the coal import figures for May for India. (<a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/coal-imports-dip-6-in-may-on-weak-demand-from-power-sector/articleshow/59062476.cms" target="_blank">News Report</a>)India's coal imports in May declined 6% yoy to 18.15 million tonnes primarily due to poor demand from the power sector.  Thermal coal imports decline is even…

In the data released a few days back, m-junction services which is an online procurement and sales platform floated jointly by Steel Authority Of India (SAIL IN) (public sector steel producer in India) and Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) (a leading private sector steel producer) has reported the coal import figures for May for India. (News Report)India's coal imports in May declined 6% yoy to 18.15 million tonnes primarily due to poor demand from the power sector.  Thermal coal imports decline is even…

India's Coal Imports Decline 6% in May Due to Weaker Demand from Power Sector, What Does This Mean?

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this win to ease Modi's chances for another term at national elections in 2019 and that would give him total 7 year period to push for reforms (In his victory speech Modi himself said he is now looking for delivering by 2022 - the 75th year of Indian Independence). Amidst the euphoria of Modi's victory, we would like to highlight some of the ground realities…

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

India

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Jindal Stainless Ltd. is an integrated steel producer which manufactures a variety of steel products.  The Company's products include stainless steel plates, welded steel tubes, cold rolled strips and seamless tubes. Jindal also manufactures industrial machinery.

Lloyds Metals and Energy Ltd. manufactures sponge iron.  The Company also operates a cogeneration waste heat recovery plant to recover heat from its kilns.

APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. manufactures and exports galvanized steel tubes, galvanized steel pipes, and welded black pipes and tubes.

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

Hindustan Copper Limited is a vertically integrated multi-unit copper producer in India engaged in a wide spectrum of activities ranging from mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining and manufacturing of copper cathodes, continuous cast wire rods and wire bars. The Company was the first Indian Copper producer to get ISO-9002 certificate for its Continuous Cast Wire Rod Plant.

Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd manufactures stainless steel seamless and welded tubes and pipes in India. The Company's clientele base consists of chemical, fertilizer, petrochemicals, refinery, power, dairy, sugar and pharmaceutical industries. Ratnamani is a regular supplier to companies such as  BHEL, IOCL, GAIL, L&T and Reliance Industries Ltd.

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes steel and allied products. The Company markets sponge and pig iron, alloy carbon, mild steel billets, wire rods, and other steel products. Jai Balaji Industries serves customers throughout India.

Godawari Power and Ispat Ltd. manufactures steel.  The Company produces steel billets.

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPL) manufactures sponge iron, mild steel, and cement. The Company also produces power, conducts mining operations for iron ore and coal, and explores for natural gas and oil. JSPL, with its diverse resources, also contributes to the construction of infrastructure.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. primarily manufactures and markets aluminum products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, aluminum rolls, and aluminum alloys.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.,Ltd. operates coal businesses. The Company mines, processes, and distributes coal, cokes, coal chemical products, and other products. Huaibei Mining Holdings also produces methanol, crude benzene, ammonium sulfate, and other products.

Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets aluminum products and worsted woolen products. The Company's major aluminum offerings are electrolytic aluminum and section aluminum. Its woolen products include soybean fiber fabrics, silk fabrics, wool/flax fabrics and cashmere. Shandong also generates and supplies electricity.

Zhaojin Mining Industry Company Ltd. explores, mines, and produces gold.  The Company holds interest in properties in eastern China.

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

Thyssenkrupp: Turnaround Underway

The spectacular sale of Elevators has transformed TKA’s balance sheet and the performance problems are finally being addressed. The cash from the...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

21 Things Worth Knowing (#11)

In This Issue:Tencent Snaps up another stake, China launches its super-regulator, Latin America's election bonanza, is big oil regaining its mojo,...

Mark Artherton

21 Things Worth Knowing Today (Issue 2)

1. Catalonia's parliament voted for full independence - with the Spanish government about to apply Constitutional rule 155 and take over...

Mark Artherton

India's Coal Imports Decline 6% in May Due to Weaker Demand from Power Sector, What Does This Mean?

In the data released a few days back, m-junction services which is an online procurement and sales platform floated jointly by Steel Authority Of...

Pankaj Sharma

Investors Need To Be Patient With Reform Momentum Even As Modi Win Ensures Policy Continuity

Expectations on economic reforms from Modi government are running high after the big win in Uttar Pradesh. Political analysts are expecting this...

Asia Advisors

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