External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Q4FY23 earnings season was marked by weaker macro, rising interest rates, banking challenges in the US and European markets, and moderation in discretionary demand.</li><li>On the positive side, earning season was led by the sequential margin expansion on account of moderation in commodity prices and the uptick in credit growth.</li><li>The export-oriented themes, however, are likely to laggard. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Q4FY23 earnings season was marked by weaker macro, rising interest rates, banking challenges in the US and European markets, and moderation in discretionary demand.On the positive side, earning season was led by the sequential margin expansion on account of moderation in commodity prices and the uptick in credit growth.The export-oriented themes, however, are likely to laggard. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Bottom-Up

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Q4FY23 could see margin expansion: YTD Ex-Mumbai HRC prices are up 7%, however, HCC prices have surged by 27% (spot at $375/t).</li><li>In Q4FY23, we expect margins to expand QoQ on higher steel prices and sales volumes guidance (4.8MT), however, margins could take a hit in Q1FY24, as the current high coal prices will flow through in Q1FY24 putting pressure on margins.</li><li>In Q3FY23 SAIL operated at its rated capacity, the next expansion capex phase is expected to start only from FY25.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Q4FY23 could see margin expansion: YTD Ex-Mumbai HRC prices are up 7%, however, HCC prices have surged by 27% (spot at $375/t).In Q4FY23, we expect margins to expand QoQ on higher steel prices and sales volumes guidance (4.8MT), however, margins could take a hit in Q1FY24, as the current high coal prices will flow through in Q1FY24 putting pressure on margins.In Q3FY23 SAIL operated at its rated capacity, the next expansion capex phase is expected to start only from FY25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.</li><li>SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals and Mining  - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

<ul><li>Steel export duties on both long and flat steel (Non-alloy, Alloyed and Stainless) have been revoked to NIL from 15%.</li><li>Export duty on Iron ore exports and the concentrate is reduced from 50% (for all grades) to NIL for Fe grades &lt; 58%, and to 30% for Fe&gt;58%.</li><li>Pellets export duty of 45% (imposed in May’22) is now cut down to NIL.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Steel export duties on both long and flat steel (Non-alloy, Alloyed and Stainless) have been revoked to NIL from 15%.Export duty on Iron ore exports and the concentrate is reduced from 50% (for all grades) to NIL for Fe grades &lt; 58%, and to 30% for Fe&gt;58%.Pellets export duty of 45% (imposed in May’22) is now cut down to NIL.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Steel Export Duty Roll Back - Government Rolls Back Export Duties On Steel, Iron Ore, & Pellets

<ul><li>SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q2FY23. EBITDA fell significantly by 89%/68% YoY/QoQ to Rs 735 Cr much below ours and consensus estimate (50% miss on consensus) as total expenses jumped up by 29%/17%/7% YoY/QoQ/our estimate.</li><li>Revenue dropped 2% YoY and increased only by 9%/3% QoQ/Our estimate.</li><li>EBITDA miss against our and streets estimates is mainly due to a higher than expected rise in RM costs (coking coal imports) along with liquidation of high-cost inventory in the quarter.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q2FY23. EBITDA fell significantly by 89%/68% YoY/QoQ to Rs 735 Cr much below ours and consensus estimate (50% miss on consensus) as total expenses jumped up by 29%/17%/7% YoY/QoQ/our estimate.Revenue dropped 2% YoY and increased only by 9%/3% QoQ/Our estimate.EBITDA miss against our and streets estimates is mainly due to a higher than expected rise in RM costs (coking coal imports) along with liquidation of high-cost inventory in the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sail -Weak Q2, Rising Leverage; Maintain HOLD

India

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

Q4FY23 - Consolidated Earnings Preview

Q4FY23 earnings season was marked by weaker macro, rising interest rates, banking challenges in the US and European markets, and moderation in...

Axis Direct

Sail - Decent Q3, Upgrade to BUY

Q4FY23 could see margin expansion: YTD Ex-Mumbai HRC prices are up 7%, however, HCC prices have surged by 27% (spot at $375/t).

Axis Direct

Metals and Mining - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%...

Axis Direct

Steel Export Duty Roll Back - Government Rolls Back Export Duties On Steel, Iron Ore, & Pellets

Export duty on Iron ore exports and the concentrate is reduced from 50% (for all grades) to NIL for Fe grades < 58%, and to 30% for Fe>58%.

Axis Direct

Sail -Weak Q2, Rising Leverage; Maintain HOLD

SAIL delivered weak numbers in Q2FY23. EBITDA fell significantly by 89%/68% YoY/QoQ to Rs 735 Cr much below ours and consensus estimate (50% miss...

Axis Direct

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