IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Group (BX US)</a> has returned for a third time with a A$12.50 cash per share offer, a marginal 1.2% bump to its last offer of A$12.35 on 10 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> is at the start of a difficult reform agenda it needs to fulfil to maintain its gaming licenses. Nevertheless, Blackstone’s ongoing interest suggest inherent value.</li>
<li>Blackstone’s bid retains leeway for a bump and may draw out previous suitors. At the last close of A$11.54, the shares trade at an 8.3% gross spread to the offer.</li>
</ul>



Blackstone Group (BX US) has returned for a third time with a A$12.50 cash per share offer, a marginal 1.2% bump to its last offer of A$12.35 on 10 May.

Crown Resorts (CWN AU) is at the start of a difficult reform agenda it needs to fulfil to maintain its gaming licenses. Nevertheless, Blackstone’s ongoing interest suggest inherent value.
Blackstone’s bid retains leeway for a bump and may draw out previous suitors. At the last close of A$11.54, the shares trade at an 8.3% gross spread to the offer.


Blackstone Third-Time Lucky with Crown Resorts Bid?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Blackstone and affiliates are offering shareholders of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a></strong> A$12.50/share in cash, a 26.2% premium to last close.</li>
<li>Crown had previously rejected Blackstone's prior A$12.35/share proposal, opting to side with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a></strong>'s bid. Star subsequently walked in July amid the Victorian Royal Commission noise.</li>
<li>Blackstone's acquisition proposal has received preliminary approvals from various regulators. </li>
</ul>


Blackstone and affiliates are offering shareholders of Crown Resorts (CWN AU) A$12.50/share in cash, a 26.2% premium to last close.
Crown had previously rejected Blackstone's prior A$12.35/share proposal, opting to side with Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)'s bid. Star subsequently walked in July amid the Victorian Royal Commission noise.
Blackstone's acquisition proposal has received preliminary approvals from various regulators. 


Crown Resorts: Blackstone Really, Really Wants This

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Australia's Star Entertainment has three key casino properties, all of which show early signs of post-pandemic recovery reversing losses with earnings gains and growing financial discipline and strengthening earnings  prospects.</li>
<li>While stock at $4.15 at writing sits near 52 week high, prospects indicate even better numbers to come during its FY1Q22 and FY2Q22 on the way.</li>
<li>Star pulled its $billion bid for competitor Crown Resorts citing continuing regulatory uncertainties, but Star faces some of its own.</li>
</ul>


Australia's Star Entertainment has three key casino properties, all of which show early signs of post-pandemic recovery reversing losses with earnings gains and growing financial discipline and strengthening earnings  prospects.
While stock at $4.15 at writing sits near 52 week high, prospects indicate even better numbers to come during its FY1Q22 and FY2Q22 on the way.
Star pulled its $billion bid for competitor Crown Resorts citing continuing regulatory uncertainties, but Star faces some of its own.


Star Entertainment Group Ltd: S Recovery Cycle Story While the Stock Is Still Cheap

<p>On the 19 April, Oaktree <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/53085/uyout%20Mr%20Packer%20via%20a%20%E2%80%9Ca%20structured%20instrument%20with%20the%20proceeds%20to%20be%20used%20by%20Crown%20to%20buy%20back%20some%20or%20all%20of%20the%20Crown%20shares%E2%80%9D%20held%20by%20his%20private%20company,%20Consolidated%20Press%20Holdings." target="_blank" rel="noopener">made</a> an $3bn unsolicited proposal to CWN's board via a then-undetermined debt/equity structure.</p>
<p>The transaction was geared to buy James Packer 37% stake in CWN via “<em>a structured instrument with the proceeds to be used by Crown to buy back some or all of the Crown shares</em>” held by his Packer's private company, Consolidated Press Holdings (CPH).</p>
<p>It was hardly a clean counter to Blackstone's cash Offer of <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355769-3A563928?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$11.85/share</a>. And questions remained as to size of the equity stake and the facility's interest rate. </p>
<p>Blackstone subsequently increased its non-binding proposal for CWN by 4% on the 4 May to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372885-3A566842?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$12.35</a>. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-grp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU)</a> lobbed a non-binding <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372888_PS-3A566843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.</p>
<p>Crown summarily concluded  Blackstone's Offer <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375134-3A567212?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">undervalued</a> the company, but it required <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375140-3A567213?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more information</a> from Star to finalise its decisions. There was no comment on Oaktree's offer.</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>This morning Oaktree <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02384403-3A568800?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped its proposal/facility</a> to $3.1bn, incorporating a 2bn private term loan and a $1.1bn loan convertible into new shares. </p>
<p>The facility would be used to selectively buyback CPH's shares in CWN.</p>
<p>The convertible would be convertible into new shares of CWN at A$13/share, with such conversion capped at 9.99% of Crown's outstanding shares.</p>
<p>It's an interesting proposition. Plus it sticks a $13/share handle out there.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

On the 19 April, Oaktree made an $3bn unsolicited proposal to CWN's board via a then-undetermined debt/equity structure.
The transaction was geared to buy James Packer 37% stake in CWN via “a structured instrument with the proceeds to be used by Crown to buy back some or all of the Crown shares” held by his Packer's private company, Consolidated Press Holdings (CPH).
It was hardly a clean counter to Blackstone's cash Offer of $11.85/share. And questions remained as to size of the equity stake and the facility's interest rate. 
Blackstone subsequently increased its non-binding proposal for CWN by 4% on the 4 May to $12.35. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU) lobbed a non-binding proposal, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.
Crown summarily concluded  Blackstone's Offer undervalued the company, but it required more information from Star to finalise its decisions. There was no comment on Oaktree's offer.
The New News
This morning Oaktree bumped its proposal/facility to $3.1bn, incorporating a 2bn private term loan and a $1.1bn loan convertible into new shares. 
The facility would be used to selectively buyback CPH's shares in CWN.
The convertible would be convertible into new shares of CWN at A$13/share, with such conversion capped at 9.99% of Crown's outstanding shares.
It's an interesting proposition. Plus it sticks a $13/share handle out there.
More below the fold.

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Oaktree's Intriguing Proposal

<div>
<p>On the 10 May, Blackstone increased its non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> by 4% to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372885-3A566842?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$12.35</a>. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-grp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU)</a> lobbed an unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372888_PS-3A566843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/7hWBx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets</a></em>, I concluded both Offers were light.</p>
<p>This morning Crown agreed that Blackstone's Offer <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375134-3A567212?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">undervalued</a> the company. But that it required <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375140-3A567213?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more information</a> from Star before finalising its view on the cash/scrip Offer. Based on the pushback to Blackstone's Offer, it is difficult to see the board recommending Star's A$0.15/share premium.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
</div>


On the 10 May, Blackstone increased its non-binding proposal for Crown Resorts (CWN AU) by 4% to $12.35. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU) lobbed an unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.


In Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets, I concluded both Offers were light.
This morning Crown agreed that Blackstone's Offer undervalued the company. But that it required more information from Star before finalising its view on the cash/scrip Offer. Based on the pushback to Blackstone's Offer, it is difficult to see the board recommending Star's A$0.15/share premium.


More below the fold. 


Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star

Australia

Tabcorp Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides gambling, gaming, wagering, and entertainment services. Tabcorp Holdings serves customers in Australia and in the United Kingdom.

Collins Foods Ltd. operates fast-food restaurants.  The Company operates chains of steak and chicken restaurants in Australia.

Corporate Travel Management Ltd. offers corporate travel management services. The Company operates on a fee for service model and provides business travel advice and services; bookings; ticketing, and ancillary services; and offers travel data diagnostics and recommendations.

Jumbo Interactive Limited develops e-commerce and online retailing technologies. The Company also operates a web site that offers Australian lottery tickets for purchase online as well as distributes a wide range of software products.

Helloworld Travel Limited operates as a travel company. The Company provides corporate travel management services to corporate and government customers including booking flights, cruises, and accommodation. Helloworld Travel serves customers worldwide.

Ainsworth Game Technology Limited designs, develops and manufactures gaming machines and games combination software and other related equipment for the gaming industry in Australia. Products include the Ambassador video gaming machines, video games and Embassy Jackpot systems.

Retail Food Group Ltd is a retail food brand manager and franchiser. The Company currently manages donut stores and cafes.

Elanor Investor Group is an investment and funds management business. The Company diversifies its investments within funds management, hotels and leisure, and special situation investments.

Reef Casino Trust operates The Reef Hotel Casino Complex in Cairns, North Queensland.  The complex includes a 128-room hotel, nightclub, a conservatory, a gaming area, lounge and bar, restaurants and conference facilities.

Betmakers Technology Group Ltd operates as a software development company. The Company designs and develops odds comparison and intelligent betting platforms, as well as analytics and trading solutions. Betmakers Technology Group serves customers in Australia.

Melco International Development Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates investment banking, financial services, technology, fine-dining, leisure and tourism, property investment, and investment businesses. The Company carries on financial service businesses under the VC CFN and VC CEF brand names.  Melco also customizes and sells trading and back office systems under the iAsia name.

FUJI KYUKO CO., LTD. provides passenger rail and bus transportation and taxi services in Shizuoka, Yamanashi, and Kanagawa prefectures.  The Company leases and sells real estate, operates department store, and offers construction works. Fuji Kyuko also operates amusement parks, hotels, golf course, skiing ground, restaurants, and other leisure-related businesses.

Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box fast-food restaurants and Qdoba Mexican Grill restaurants. The Company provides a variety of food items including hamburgers, specialty sandwiches, salads, Mexican food, finger foods, and side items. Jack in the Box offers its products and services throughout the United States and Canada.

ICHIBANYA CO., LTD. operates a chain of restaurants specialized in curry dishes nationwide.  The Company operates both franchise and directly managed restaurants.  The Company also sells its curry by mail order.

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates tourist attractions, golf clubs, hotels, and other travel related activities.  The Company also provides passenger transportation as well as freight forwarding and cargo services.

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

Formosa International Hotels Corporation operates hotels in Taipei.  The Company provides health club, laundry, business meeting, and other hotel services. In addition, Formosa operates restaurants, night clubs, and hotel management consulting.

Monogatari Corporation operates a restaurant chain.  The Company's restaurants include Japanese, BBQ, noodle, and Japanese-style pancake restaurant.

KURA CORPORATION operates a revolving sushi restaurant chain based in Osaka. The Company operates its own stores.

Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Co. Ltd. is in the hotel management business.  The Company also provides travel, food, and exhibition   space rental services.

Emei Shan Tourism Co.,Ltd provides travel services. The Company provides scenic spot ticket sales, tourist souvenir sales, tourism hotel management, and other services. Emei Shan Tourism also operates passenger cableway management, real estate loans, and other businesses.

The Star Entertainment Group Limited owns and operates casinos and hotels. The Company offers services and amenities such as gaming facilities, nightclubs, bars, restaurants, exhibition centers. The Star Entertainment Group conducts business in Australia.

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Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)

Blackstone Third-Time Lucky with Crown Resorts Bid?

Blackstone’s new A$12.50 cash per share bid retains leeway for a bump and may draw out previous suitors. At the last close of A$11.54 per share,...

Arun George

Crown Resorts: Blackstone Really, Really Wants This

There's a multitude of moving parts here, but Blackstone really, really wants this. Trading at a gross spread of 8.5%. That appears about right. I...

David Blennerhassett

Star Entertainment Group Ltd: S Recovery Cycle Story While the Stock Is Still Cheap

Star Entertainment has emerged from pandemic induced downside in its business to early upside in EBITDA and EBIT but is still trading at a...

Howard J Klein

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Oaktree's Intriguing Proposal

Despite the positive aspects of Oaktree's proposal, the pushback may be that Crown's board may prefer to back an Offer which is simply cleaner in...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star

I believe this transaction requires a clean A$14+/share handle, in cash, to get up. That, or a material uplift in Star's scrip ratio. I'd continue...

David Blennerhassett

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