Investment Strategist, Transparently.AI

Mark Jolley

Investment Strategist

AI detection of accounting fraud and manipulation

Transparently.AI

Fraud and manipulation of their numbers see companies lose USD1 trillion+ per year for their stakeholders. Transparently.AI has developed an AI system that determines:

1. The likelihood that a company is committing fraud/serious manipulation of their books;
2. Whether it is serious enough to result in total corporate failure;
3. Estimated $ losses to stakeholders;
4. How that manipulation/fraud evolves through time; and
5. Detailed analytics on the forms of manipulation/fraud (e.g. which parts of the accounts, what tricks of the trade, questions for analysts to ask management, where/how to investigate further, etc.).

This is effectively automating the analysis of forensic accountants, activist short sellers, credit analysts, etc to do work that would typically take weeks per company, and instead run it in seconds and for thousands of companies simultaneously.

Critically, this solution frequently alerts users to the presence of serious manipulation risk up to 2-3 years in advance of the wider market and short sellers becoming aware of problems.

Forensic Accounting

Star Entertainment Group / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Star Entertainment stock has plunged &gt;90% from its peak as rising online competition and regulatory issues hamper its recovery from Covid</li>
<li>Company has reported billions of losses,  sought more than A$1 billion in emergency capital</li>
<li>AI system shows Star has exhibited poor accounting quality for a number of years, even as stock climbed</li>
</ul>


Star Entertainment stock has plunged &gt;90% from its peak as rising online competition and regulatory issues hamper its recovery from Covid
Company has reported billions of losses,  sought more than A$1 billion in emergency capital
AI system shows Star has exhibited poor accounting quality for a number of years, even as stock climbed


Star Entertainment: Trouble in Casino Land

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as <a href="https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/opportunities-as-investors-sell-stocks-for-tax-losses-before-june-30-20220527-p5ap0w" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an AFR article</a> from June 2022 shows.</li>
<li>The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.</li>
<li>The portfolio worked well in April. Now we let April ride and add the May basket.</li>
</ul>


I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
The portfolio worked well in April. Now we let April ride and add the May basket.


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 - The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Troubled casino operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment (SGR AU)</a><a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240520/pdf/063qmlyvz81ytz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> announced</a> it had “received inbound interest” from several parties, including "Hard Rock Hotels &amp; Resorts ... a local partner of Hard Rock".</li>
<li>Star is in the doghouse, again,  as the regulator conducts (another) review amid concerns Star did not do enough to remedy the problems identified in the first review. </li>
<li>Facing “serious and systemic non-compliance” with anti-money laundering laws, Star faces the distinct possibility of losing is casino licence in Sydney; and potentially the one in Queensland.  </li>
</ul>


Troubled casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) announced it had “received inbound interest” from several parties, including "Hard Rock Hotels &amp; Resorts ... a local partner of Hard Rock".
Star is in the doghouse, again,  as the regulator conducts (another) review amid concerns Star did not do enough to remedy the problems identified in the first review. 
Facing “serious and systemic non-compliance” with anti-money laundering laws, Star faces the distinct possibility of losing is casino licence in Sydney; and potentially the one in Queensland.  


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 Index</a> and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 Index and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.
The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see eight ADDs and six DELs for ASX 300.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 7th March 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

Australia

The Star Entertainment Group Limited owns and operates casinos and hotels. The Company offers services and amenities such as gaming facilities, nightclubs, bars, restaurants, exhibition centers. The Star Entertainment Group conducts business in Australia.

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Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)

Star Entertainment: Trouble in Casino Land

Star Entertainment stock has plummeted over 90% due to competition, regulatory issues, leading to billions in losses and emergency fundraising....

Mark Jolley

Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 - The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)

The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Basket had a good first month. The second month (June) is usually better than the first. The May basket (i.e. added...

Travis Lundy

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

Opportunistic suitors? Maybe. Probably. But like Crown, Star needs a clean slate. And that means it should be busted-up, or privatised -...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

The reference period for ASX Mar25 review rankings ended last week. All expected ADDs and DELs mentioned in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Star Entertainment: Trouble in Casino Land

​Star Entertainment stock has plummeted over 90% due to competition, regulatory issues, leading to billions in losses and emergency fundraising....

Mark Jolley

Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 - The May Basket (April Basket +2.3 to +6.3% Rtn)

The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Basket had a good first month. The second month (June) is usually better than the first. The May basket (i.e. added...

Travis Lundy

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Hard Rock Rolls The Dice

Opportunistic suitors? Maybe. Probably. But like Crown, Star needs a clean slate. And that means it should be busted-up, or privatised -...

David Blennerhassett

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: Final Expectations; Momentum Still Intact

The reference period for ASX Mar25 review rankings ended last week. All expected ADDs and DELs mentioned in this insight are our final...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Star Entertainment stock has plummeted over 90% due to competition, regulatory issues, leading to billions in losses and emergency fundraising....

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices