Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The presence of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a> CEO, James Murren, in Tokyo earlier this month, is a timely reminder to everyone that the re-election of Shinzo Abe’s government last year means that the Casino Bill is still in the works, even if it is stuck behind the Gambling Addiction bill. Indeed, it is probably the case that Murren is over to emphasize the point that firms like his are willing to invest heavily in Japan provided the limitations brought about by the Gambling Addiction bill…

The presence of MGM Resorts International (MGM US) CEO, James Murren, in Tokyo earlier this month, is a timely reminder to everyone that the re-election of Shinzo Abe’s government last year means that the Casino Bill is still in the works, even if it is stuck behind the Gambling Addiction bill. Indeed, it is probably the case that Murren is over to emphasize the point that firms like his are willing to invest heavily in Japan provided the limitations brought about by the Gambling Addiction bill…

Equity Bottom-Up

In a traditionally tough quarter for video game publishers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5415" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> delivered in three months as much operating profit as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15003" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a> delivered in the first six months of the year, and on top of that massively revised up its full year target OP to ¥120bil from ¥65bil. Management upped their target for Switch system sales to 14mil from 10mil for FY17, while increasing Switch software sales target from 35mil to 50mil. The forecast is also knowingly conservative, as the…

In a traditionally tough quarter for video game publishers, Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) delivered in three months as much operating profit as Square Enix (9684 JP) delivered in the first six months of the year, and on top of that massively revised up its full year target OP to ¥120bil from ¥65bil. Management upped their target for Switch system sales to 14mil from 10mil for FY17, while increasing Switch software sales target from 35mil to 50mil. The forecast is also knowingly conservative, as the…

Nintendo (7974) - Is Perfection Good Enough?

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H earnings. We thought we would look for companies where consensus estimates and current company guidance is significantly different. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5415" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> tops the list with consensus OP 103% above company guidance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15359:1">Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)</a>'s difference is almost as bad with consensus OP 93% above guidance. Other big names that made the list are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu</a>…

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H earnings. We thought we would look for companies where consensus estimates and current company guidance is significantly different. Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) tops the list with consensus OP 103% above company guidance. Ricoh Co Ltd (7752 JP)'s difference is almost as bad with consensus OP 93% above guidance. Other big names that made the list are Komatsu…

Companies Where Consensus and Company Guidance Are Far Apart.....

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15003" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1">Square Enix [SQE] (9684 JP)</a> finally broke through the ¥4,000 level on Friday, Sept 22nd, and you have to go back to the 1990s tech bubble for when the shares were higher. The Tokyo Game Show (TGS) is on at the moment, and in general, this is probably the reason why the shares have finally cleared this hurdle: forthcoming shooter Left Alive, the latest in the Front Mission series, stole the show at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony (6758 JP)</a> press conference but SQE also has four other PS4 titles in the works, which were…

Square Enix [SQE] (9684 JP) finally broke through the ¥4,000 level on Friday, Sept 22nd, and you have to go back to the 1990s tech bubble for when the shares were higher. The Tokyo Game Show (TGS) is on at the moment, and in general, this is probably the reason why the shares have finally cleared this hurdle: forthcoming shooter Left Alive, the latest in the Front Mission series, stole the show at the Sony (6758 JP) press conference but SQE also has four other PS4 titles in the works, which were…

Square Enix's Left Alive Is Star of Tokyo Game Show

Japan

OBIC Business Consultants Co.,Ltd. develops and markets business solution packaged software. The Company's products include software for accounting, banking, wage calculation, sales management, inventory control, and tax calculation. OBIC Business Consultants Co Ltd. also provides support and training services.

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

Sansan, Inc. provides mobile application software solutions. The Company offers business card management service by scanning the cards from scanner and smartphone. Sansan provides its services throughout Japan.

NSD CO., LTD is an independent computer software development company. The Company's products include operating systems, business software for financial industry, and process control systems.  NSD also provides computer services including managing computer systems and data entry. The Company also sells computers and its peripheral equipment.

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Justsystems Corporation develops and sells computer application software. The Company's products include Ichitaro, a Japanese language word processing program.  Justsystems also develops network software.

GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. develops and distributes Internet games. The Company also develops applications for smartphones.

Systena Corporation develops firmware for mobile telecommunications. The Company also develops web application software for network systems, computer game software, and systems for financial firms.  Systena provides network consulting services as well.

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

Kingsoft Corporation Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops role-playing computer games and security, word processing, and spreadsheet software.

Technology One Limited is an Australian-based company that is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation, support, and distribution of financial management and enterprise software solutions. The Company has operations in New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the South Pacific, and Malaysia.

Hundsun Technologies Inc develops application software for security firms, commercial banks, fund management firms, and other industries.  The Company also sells computer hardware and provides system integration services.

Blackbaud, Inc. provides software and related services designed specifically for non-profit organizations. The Company's products and services enable non-profit organizations to increase donations, reduce fundraising costs, improve communication with constituents, manage their finances, and optimize internal operations.

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

RingCentral, Inc. is a provider of software-as-a-service, or SaaS, solutions for business communications. The Company offers a multi-user, enterprise-grade communications solution that enables customers and their employees to communicate via voice, text, HD video and web conferencing and fax, on multiple devices, including smartphones, tablets, PCs and desk phones.

ACI Worldwide, Inc. develops, markets, and supports software products for the global electronics funds transfer market.  The Company's products are used to process transactions involving credit cards, debit cards, smartcards, home banking services, checks, and automated clearing and settlement.

China National Software & Service Co., Ltd designs, develops, and integrates application software used for the taxation, railway telecommunication, military, commercial aviation, and financial industries.  The Company also designs Chinasoft Linux operating system and develops language conversion software to support Chinese, English, and Japanese

Workiva Inc. provides cloud-based and mobile-enabled platforms for enterprises. The Company offers software to collect, manage, report and analyze business data in real time.

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

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Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Japan Casino Bill Back in the Headlines

The presence of MGM Resorts International (MGM US) CEO, James Murren, in Tokyo earlier this month, is a timely reminder to everyone that the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Nintendo (7974) - Is Perfection Good Enough?

In a traditionally tough quarter for video game publishers, Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) delivered in three months as much operating profit as Square...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Companies Where Consensus and Company Guidance Are Far Apart.....

1H Earnings season is just around the corner for most Japanese companies and a lot of companies like to revise guidance when they annouce 1H...

Custom Products Group

Square Enix's Left Alive Is Star of Tokyo Game Show

Square Enix [SQE] (9684 JP) finally broke through the ¥4,000 level on Friday, Sept 22nd, and you have to go back to the 1990s tech bubble for when...

Pelham Smithers Associates

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