Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.</li>
</ul>


There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.


Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.  </li>
<li>The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.</li>
<li>A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024. </li>
</ul>


On 5 June, Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. The original book building period for the institutional investors was from 3 to 13 June.  
The final book building date has been postponed to 27 June. The subsequent public offering subscription for general investors was also postponed to 2 to 3 July.
A major investment positive of Shift Up is enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which was the best selling game in the U.S. and numerous other countries in April 2024. 


Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.</li>
<li>Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.</li>
<li>We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a trading strategy for Shift Up which starts trading on 11 July. Shift Up is one of the most anticipated IPOs in Korea this year.
Our base case (6 months - 1 year) target price of Shift Up is 95,510 won, which is 59% higher than the IPO price.
We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by 100% or more from the IPO price on the first day. 


Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
We have looked at the company’s performance and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Shift Up IPO Trading - Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

<ul>
<li>Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).</li>
</ul>


Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
According to Hankyung Business Daily, the demand ratio was 223 to 1. Shift Up will start trading on 11 July.
Our base case valuation of Shift Up is market cap of 5.7 trillion won or target price of 95,510 won (59% higher than the IPO price of 60,000 won).


Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Japan

OBIC Business Consultants Co.,Ltd. develops and markets business solution packaged software. The Company's products include software for accounting, banking, wage calculation, sales management, inventory control, and tax calculation. OBIC Business Consultants Co Ltd. also provides support and training services.

FUJI SOFT INCORPORATED is an independent software developer, specializing in communications and machine control software, business application software for bank and insurance companies, and operating system software.  Fuji Soft also installs, manages, and maintains computer systems.  The Company develops and sells word processing packaged software and also provides internet service.

Koei Tecmo Holdings Co.,Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Koei Co., Ltd. and Tecmo Ltd. The Company develops and distributes video game software for personal computers and home video game consoles. The Company also operates other media business such as marketing of books and CDs and amusement facility operation.

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

Sansan, Inc. provides mobile application software solutions. The Company offers business card management service by scanning the cards from scanner and smartphone. Sansan provides its services throughout Japan.

NSD CO., LTD is an independent computer software development company. The Company's products include operating systems, business software for financial industry, and process control systems.  NSD also provides computer services including managing computer systems and data entry. The Company also sells computers and its peripheral equipment.

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

Justsystems Corporation develops and sells computer application software. The Company's products include Ichitaro, a Japanese language word processing program.  Justsystems also develops network software.

GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. develops and distributes Internet games. The Company also develops applications for smartphones.

Systena Corporation develops firmware for mobile telecommunications. The Company also develops web application software for network systems, computer game software, and systems for financial firms.  Systena provides network consulting services as well.

Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and sells enterprise management software, e-commerce application software and middleware software.  The Company also provides internet-based services and setting up e-commerce platforms for enterprises. In addition, Kingdee provides solution consulting and technical support services.

Kingsoft Corporation Ltd. develops and markets computer software.  The Company develops role-playing computer games and security, word processing, and spreadsheet software.

Technology One Limited is an Australian-based company that is engaged in the development, marketing, sales, implementation, support, and distribution of financial management and enterprise software solutions. The Company has operations in New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the South Pacific, and Malaysia.

Hundsun Technologies Inc develops application software for security firms, commercial banks, fund management firms, and other industries.  The Company also sells computer hardware and provides system integration services.

Blackbaud, Inc. provides software and related services designed specifically for non-profit organizations. The Company's products and services enable non-profit organizations to increase donations, reduce fundraising costs, improve communication with constituents, manage their finances, and optimize internal operations.

NCSOFT Corporation develops and markets on-line games that enable users to play over the Internet and computer software, such as web editing software.  The Company also designs and constructs databases, Intranet, and commercial Internet access systems.

RingCentral, Inc. is a provider of software-as-a-service, or SaaS, solutions for business communications. The Company offers a multi-user, enterprise-grade communications solution that enables customers and their employees to communicate via voice, text, HD video and web conferencing and fax, on multiple devices, including smartphones, tablets, PCs and desk phones.

ACI Worldwide, Inc. develops, markets, and supports software products for the global electronics funds transfer market.  The Company's products are used to process transactions involving credit cards, debit cards, smartcards, home banking services, checks, and automated clearing and settlement.

China National Software & Service Co., Ltd designs, develops, and integrates application software used for the taxation, railway telecommunication, military, commercial aviation, and financial industries.  The Company also designs Chinasoft Linux operating system and develops language conversion software to support Chinese, English, and Japanese

Workiva Inc. provides cloud-based and mobile-enabled platforms for enterprises. The Company offers software to collect, manage, report and analyze business data in real time.

SQUARE ENIX HOLDINGS CO., LTD. develops and sells entertainment software for home video game consoles including Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy series. The Company also publishes books such as informational guide books for its game software, and comic magazines and books.  Additionally, Square Enix sells character goods and stationery items from its software products.

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Square Enix Holdings (9684 JP)

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

Shift Up Delays the IPO and Stellar Blade Tops Number One Game in the US in April

Shift Up announced that it will be postponing its IPO to July. A major investment positive is the enormous initial success of Stellar Blade which...

Douglas Kim

Trading Strategy of Shift Up on the First Day of IPO

Shift Up starts trading on 11 July. We recommend investors to take some profits (about 50% of invested capital) if the share price shoots higher by...

Douglas Kim

Shift Up IPO Trading - Strong Demand for Quality Asset but It Has Slipped Out of the Top Games

Shift Up (462870 KS) raised around US$320m in its South Korean IPO, after pricing at the top. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Shift Up IPO Book Building Results Analysis

Shift Up reported solid IPO book building results. Shift Up's IPO price has been determined at 60,000 won won, which is at the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

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