New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Spark NZ (SPK) issued an uncharacteristic earnings downgrade, citing cyclical headwinds in both its IT services and mobile device sales.</li><li>We have no doubt these are the core drivers behind the downgrade.</li><li>That said, it is untimely. The IT services division has been a serial disappointment over the last couple of years, with SPK failing to reach its expectations in FY22 and FY23.</li></ul>

Spark NZ (SPK) issued an uncharacteristic earnings downgrade, citing cyclical headwinds in both its IT services and mobile device sales.We have no doubt these are the core drivers behind the downgrade.That said, it is untimely. The IT services division has been a serial disappointment over the last couple of years, with SPK failing to reach its expectations in FY22 and FY23.

<ul>
<li>Spark (SPK) reported a relatively weak 1H24, in-line with our estimates only thanks to a revaluation gain. SPK maintained its FY24 guidance suggesting a substantial improvement in 2H24.</li>
<li>Voice and IT services were the key areas of weakness while Mobile continued to be strong, albeit in-line with our estimates.</li>
<li>With 1H24 results reported, we now have a ‘clean’ 12 month period without the Tower assets. </li>
</ul>


Spark (SPK) reported a relatively weak 1H24, in-line with our estimates only thanks to a revaluation gain. SPK maintained its FY24 guidance suggesting a substantial improvement in 2H24.
Voice and IT services were the key areas of weakness while Mobile continued to be strong, albeit in-line with our estimates.
With 1H24 results reported, we now have a ‘clean’ 12 month period without the Tower assets. 


<ul><li>Spark (SPK) will report its 1H24 result on Wednesday, 28 February.</li><li>We expect the key focus areas for the result to be: (1) Mobile margins and ARPU, both of which were slightly softer in 2H23; (2) Data Centres and Cloud, as SPK manages the industry migration from private to public cloud; (3) any slowdown in demand for its IT services; and (4) cost control.</li><li>We estimate operating expenses up ~+2% versus 1H23. Overall, we expect a solid result but see more areas where SPK could disappoint negatively versus surprise positively.</li></ul>

Spark (SPK) will report its 1H24 result on Wednesday, 28 February.We expect the key focus areas for the result to be: (1) Mobile margins and ARPU, both of which were slightly softer in 2H23; (2) Data Centres and Cloud, as SPK manages the industry migration from private to public cloud; (3) any slowdown in demand for its IT services; and (4) cost control.We estimate operating expenses up ~+2% versus 1H23. Overall, we expect a solid result but see more areas where SPK could disappoint negatively versus surprise positively.

Spark NZ - 1H24 Preview — Mobile and Costs in Focus

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/car-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:701:1" rel="noopener">CAR Group (CAR AU)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index and one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in December.
Both deletes are also deletions from a global index next week and there could be short-term buying/covering opportunities on a drop in the stock price.
There has been a buildup of cumulative excess volume in all stocks over the last few months. There has been no increase in positioning in CAR Group (CAR AU) recently.


S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

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Spark New Zealand (SPK NZ)

Spark NZ - Cyclical or Structural?

Spark NZ (SPK) issued an uncharacteristic earnings downgrade, citing cyclical headwinds in both its IT services and mobile device sales.

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ - Needs a Big Second Innings

Spark (SPK) reported a relatively weak 1H24, in-line with our estimates only thanks to a revaluation gain. SPK maintained its FY24 guidance...

Forsyth Barr

Spark NZ - 1H24 Preview — Mobile and Costs in Focus

We estimate operating expenses up ~+2% versus 1H23. Overall, we expect a solid result but see more areas where SPK could disappoint negatively...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Auckland Airport just reported its full year results, this in effect frees its largest shareholder, Auckland City Council to progress with its...

Sumeet Singh

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview (Dec 2024): Dexus and Spark NZ with Double Deletions

CAR Group could replace Dexus in the ASX50, and Clarity Pharma could replace Spark NZ in the ASX200. Dexus and Spark NZ are also deletes from a...

Brian Freitas

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