New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) announced a NZ$1,150m capital raise, ~NZ$650m of which will be earmarked to fund growth in CDC. </li><li>The capital need has been well flagged. IFT expects the upcoming equity injection into CDC to be sufficient to comfortably take it to &gt;3x its current capacity over the next four to five years, with the majority of this to be commissioned within the next two years.</li><li>CDC is in ‘advanced negotiations’ to contract the entire capacity expansion and expects the revenue ramp up to be faster than prior expansions. </li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) announced a NZ$1,150m capital raise, ~NZ$650m of which will be earmarked to fund growth in CDC. The capital need has been well flagged. IFT expects the upcoming equity injection into CDC to be sufficient to comfortably take it to &gt;3x its current capacity over the next four to five years, with the majority of this to be commissioned within the next two years.CDC is in ‘advanced negotiations’ to contract the entire capacity expansion and expects the revenue ramp up to be faster than prior expansions. 

Infratil - De-Risking CDC's Breakneck Growth

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infratil-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:596:1" rel="noopener">Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)</a> aims to raise around US$613m (NZ$1bn) via an institutional placement.</li>
<li>Proceeds from the placement will be used to fund IFT’s share of capex for its data center arm, CDC.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) aims to raise around US$613m (NZ$1bn) via an institutional placement.
Proceeds from the placement will be used to fund IFT’s share of capex for its data center arm, CDC.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Infratil Placement - Riding the AI Wave, but Deal Timing Seems Opportunistic

<ul><li>The delivery could have been better, but the message got through. One NZ's trading is as weak as should have been expected following Spark's downgrade, and CDC is gearing up for breathtaking growth.</li><li>Over the next three years CDC could triple in capacity, with EBITDA following close behind. CDC has tripled in capacity twice already. But scale matters.</li><li>We estimate CDC will need to spend &gt;A$7bn in capex, &gt;20x FY24 EBITDA, to deliver this growth. </li></ul>

The delivery could have been better, but the message got through. One NZ's trading is as weak as should have been expected following Spark's downgrade, and CDC is gearing up for breathtaking growth.Over the next three years CDC could triple in capacity, with EBITDA following close behind. CDC has tripled in capacity twice already. But scale matters.We estimate CDC will need to spend &gt;A$7bn in capex, &gt;20x FY24 EBITDA, to deliver this growth. 

Infratil - FY24 Result — A Few Things to Unpick

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) will report its FY24 result on Tuesday, 21 May. With the reiteration of its guidance in March, we see little room for major surprises in its FY24 result.</li><li>We believe the key focuses will be: (1) free cash flow (FCF) outlook for One NZ. Over the last four years One NZ has delivered little FCF; we expect this to change by FY25 to improve IFT's cash generative core.</li><li>(2) CDC growth outlook should be strong but it likely needs further capital to fund its growth. </li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) will report its FY24 result on Tuesday, 21 May. With the reiteration of its guidance in March, we see little room for major surprises in its FY24 result.We believe the key focuses will be: (1) free cash flow (FCF) outlook for One NZ. Over the last four years One NZ has delivered little FCF; we expect this to change by FY25 to improve IFT's cash generative core.(2) CDC growth outlook should be strong but it likely needs further capital to fund its growth. 

Infratil - FY24 Preview — One NZ Cash & CDC Growth

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) and its portfolio companies delivered a confident message at its Investor Day, focused on the various long-term internal reinvestment opportunities within the portfolio.</li><li>We walk away with three main takeaways: (1) CDC continues to see exceptional and likely accelerating growth.</li><li>Expected yet reassuring; (2) One NZ is first and foremost a telco. Not a fast growing digital infrastructure company.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) and its portfolio companies delivered a confident message at its Investor Day, focused on the various long-term internal reinvestment opportunities within the portfolio.We walk away with three main takeaways: (1) CDC continues to see exceptional and likely accelerating growth.Expected yet reassuring; (2) One NZ is first and foremost a telco. Not a fast growing digital infrastructure company.

Infratil - Reinvestment Opportunities a Plenty

New Zealand

Infratil Limited is an infrastructure investment company. The Company invests in airports, energy such as renewable and waste-energy, and public transportation.

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Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ)

Infratil - De-Risking CDC's Breakneck Growth

CDC now makes up nearly half of IFT's total asset value. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM rating with an increased target price of NZ$13.00.

Forsyth Barr

Infratil Placement - Riding the AI Wave, but Deal Timing Seems Opportunistic

Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) aims to raise around US$613m (NZ$1bn) via an institutional placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run...

Sumeet Singh

Infratil - FY24 Result — A Few Things to Unpick

Over the next three years CDC could triple in capacity, with EBITDA following close behind. CDC has tripled in capacity twice already. But scale...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - FY24 Preview — One NZ Cash & CDC Growth

Infratil (IFT) will report its FY24 result on Tuesday, 21 May. With the reiteration of its guidance in March, we see little room for major...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil - Reinvestment Opportunities a Plenty

Infratil (IFT) and its portfolio companies delivered a confident message at its Investor Day, focused on the various long-term internal...

Forsyth Barr

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