New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Gentrack (GTK) used its 2025 Strategy Day to reiterate confidence in its long-term growth trajectory, providing expanded detail but little materially new information.</li><li>GTK sees itself as well placed to benefit from the substantial modernisation cycle under way in global energy, water, and airport software.</li><li>The stock has risen materially since its FY25 results (+36%), as the market places greater emphasis on conversion of the pipeline opportunities, likely in the latter part of FY26.</li></ul>

Gentrack (GTK) used its 2025 Strategy Day to reiterate confidence in its long-term growth trajectory, providing expanded detail but little materially new information.GTK sees itself as well placed to benefit from the substantial modernisation cycle under way in global energy, water, and airport software.The stock has risen materially since its FY25 results (+36%), as the market places greater emphasis on conversion of the pipeline opportunities, likely in the latter part of FY26.

<ul>
<li>We lift our rating on Gentrack (GTK) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, reflecting an improved risk-reward backdrop underpinned by: (1) greater contract visibility, (2) building g2.0 momentum, and (3) sustained strength at Veovo.</li>
<li>GTK reported a reassuring FY25 result in line with guidance, but the disclosure of ten pipeline opportunities representing ~30m meter points was the key piece of new information.</li>
<li>GTK's cash balance of ~NZ$85m also provides optionality to pursue inorganic growth opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We lift our rating on Gentrack (GTK) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, reflecting an improved risk-reward backdrop underpinned by: (1) greater contract visibility, (2) building g2.0 momentum, and (3) sustained strength at Veovo.
GTK reported a reassuring FY25 result in line with guidance, but the disclosure of ten pipeline opportunities representing ~30m meter points was the key piece of new information.
GTK's cash balance of ~NZ$85m also provides optionality to pursue inorganic growth opportunities.


Gentrack On Current in FY25, Powering Up for FY27

<ul><li>We head into GTK's FY25 result (24 November 2025) with a sense of déjà vu.</li><li>We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong execution from competitor Kraken.</li><li>Our proprietary data indicates ongoing staff growth, lending confidence that the Bulgarian scoping study remains on track for conversion into a contract.</li></ul>

We head into GTK's FY25 result (24 November 2025) with a sense of déjà vu.We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong execution from competitor Kraken.Our proprietary data indicates ongoing staff growth, lending confidence that the Bulgarian scoping study remains on track for conversion into a contract.

<ul><li>Gentrack (GTK) has announced that it is no longer part of the tendering process for an Australian customer, which is replacing its current billing platform.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>Our confidence in the growth story has weakened, particularly in the near term, and we see some risk to consensus revenue estimates over the next few years.</li></ul>

Gentrack (GTK) has announced that it is no longer part of the tendering process for an Australian customer, which is replacing its current billing platform.We downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.Our confidence in the growth story has weakened, particularly in the near term, and we see some risk to consensus revenue estimates over the next few years.

Gentrack Australian Customer Loss — Down to NEUTRAL

<ul><li>Gentrack reported a weaker-than-expected 1H25 result, guiding revenue and EBITDA below consensus for FY25 due to lower implementation revenue in its Utilities business.</li><li>The long-term growth story remains intact, with Gentrack well-positioned for contract wins in 2H25, supporting growth acceleration into FY26 and FY27.</li><li>The target price is reduced to NZ$14.10, with an OUTPERFORM rating retained due to a strong pipeline and potential contract announcements in the next six months.</li></ul>

Gentrack reported a weaker-than-expected 1H25 result, guiding revenue and EBITDA below consensus for FY25 due to lower implementation revenue in its Utilities business.The long-term growth story remains intact, with Gentrack well-positioned for contract wins in 2H25, supporting growth acceleration into FY26 and FY27.The target price is reduced to NZ$14.10, with an OUTPERFORM rating retained due to a strong pipeline and potential contract announcements in the next six months.

Gentrack 1H25 Result—Low Voltage, Current to Come

New Zealand

Gentrack Group Limited is a computer consulting company. The Company provides software solutions to energy & water utilities and airports.

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Gentrack (GTK NZ)

Gentrack Strategy Day 2025

Gentrack (GTK) used its 2025 Strategy Day to reiterate confidence in its long-term growth trajectory, providing expanded detail but little...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack On Current in FY25, Powering Up for FY27

GTK reported a reassuring FY25 result in line with guidance, but the disclosure of ten pipeline opportunities representing ~30m meter points was...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack FY25 Preview—Dj Vu

We anticipate a soft result relative to market expectations, with sentiment weakening amid the absence of major contract wins and continued strong...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack Australian Customer Loss — Down to NEUTRAL

Gentrack (GTK) has announced that it is no longer part of the tendering process for an Australian customer, which is replacing its current billing...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack 1H25 Result—Low Voltage, Current to Come

Gentrack reported a weaker-than-expected 1H25 result, guiding revenue and EBITDA below consensus for FY25 due to lower implementation revenue in...

Forsyth Barr

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