New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The passenger (pax) recovery at Auckland Airport (AIA) has temporarily stalled; this is not news, but the recovery out of the stall is likely to be slower and longer than we previously thought.</li><li>There are several drivers. First, Air New Zealand (AIR), AIA's biggest customer, is challenged by engine maintenance issues, which is impacting aircraft availability for both domestic and international services.</li><li>Second, AIR is not the only airline impacted by maintenance and parts issues. Third, softer inbound tourism demand, with the recovery in inbound visitors lagging that of outbound Kiwis. </li></ul>

The passenger (pax) recovery at Auckland Airport (AIA) has temporarily stalled; this is not news, but the recovery out of the stall is likely to be slower and longer than we previously thought.There are several drivers. First, Air New Zealand (AIR), AIA's biggest customer, is challenged by engine maintenance issues, which is impacting aircraft availability for both domestic and international services.Second, AIR is not the only airline impacted by maintenance and parts issues. Third, softer inbound tourism demand, with the recovery in inbound visitors lagging that of outbound Kiwis. 

Auckland Airport - Slower Recovery From Stalling Pax

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland Council is looking to raise NZ$1.3bn (US$772m) from selling its entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>.</li>
<li>Overall, the selldown will be a large one for the stock to digest at 10% of shares outstanding and 62 days of three month ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Auckland Council is looking to raise NZ$1.3bn (US$772m) from selling its entire stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ).
Overall, the selldown will be a large one for the stock to digest at 10% of shares outstanding and 62 days of three month ADV.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Placement - NZ$1.3bn (US$770m) Cleanup Sale Will Remove the Overhang

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council is looking to sell 163.23m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a> in a clean-up trade. This is big at NZ$1.3bn and 64 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The placement was expected by the market and the stock has run up despite that. The stock is in a trading halt and should open lower.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares and that will mop up around 15% of the offering.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council is looking to sell 163.23m shares of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) in a clean-up trade. This is big at NZ$1.3bn and 64 days of ADV.
The placement was expected by the market and the stock has run up despite that. The stock is in a trading halt and should open lower.
There will be passive buying at the time of settlement of the placement shares and that will mop up around 15% of the offering.


Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Potential Index Flows

<ul><li>Auckland Airport's (AIA) aeronautical pricing outlook is positive, but is likely to take a short-term hit as a result of the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) ongoing PSE4 (FY23–FY27) pricing review.</li><li>We expect the latter to rule against AIA in its final report due in 1Q25, which would mean AIA lowers its pricing in FY26 and FY27.</li><li>However, perhaps more importantly for AIA, we don't expect the ComCom to raise big enough concerns about the current regulatory settings or AIA's behaviour, which would be a precursor to either it, or the government, launching an inquiry—as requested by airlines. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport's (AIA) aeronautical pricing outlook is positive, but is likely to take a short-term hit as a result of the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) ongoing PSE4 (FY23–FY27) pricing review.We expect the latter to rule against AIA in its final report due in 1Q25, which would mean AIA lowers its pricing in FY26 and FY27.However, perhaps more importantly for AIA, we don't expect the ComCom to raise big enough concerns about the current regulatory settings or AIA's behaviour, which would be a precursor to either it, or the government, launching an inquiry—as requested by airlines. 

Auckland Airport - Calibrating The (Likely) Aero Price Cut

<ul><li>Auckland Airport's (AIA) NZ$1.4bn equity raise to support its capital development programme suggests a conservative approach to managing its balance sheet.</li><li>The additional equity should mean AIA navigates the bulge of capital expansion over the medium term, without getting close to testing its key S&amp;P A- credit rating of funds from operations (FFO) to debt threshold, even with the prospect of aeronautical price cuts in FY26 and FY27.</li><li>The latter stems from the current Commerce Commission (ComCom) PSE4 (FY23–FY27) pricing review. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport's (AIA) NZ$1.4bn equity raise to support its capital development programme suggests a conservative approach to managing its balance sheet.The additional equity should mean AIA navigates the bulge of capital expansion over the medium term, without getting close to testing its key S&amp;P A- credit rating of funds from operations (FFO) to debt threshold, even with the prospect of aeronautical price cuts in FY26 and FY27.The latter stems from the current Commerce Commission (ComCom) PSE4 (FY23–FY27) pricing review. 

Auckland Airport - Funding Terminal Value

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport - Slower Recovery From Stalling Pax

The passenger (pax) recovery at Auckland Airport (AIA) has temporarily stalled; this is not news, but the recovery out of the stall is likely to be...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Placement - NZ$1.3bn (US$770m) Cleanup Sale Will Remove the Overhang

Auckland Council is looking to raise NZ$1.3bn (US$772m) from selling its entire stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ). In this note, we will...

Clarence Chu

Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Potential Index Flows

Auckland Council is looking to sell its entire 9.71% holding of Auckland Intl Airport. It is a big deal and there should be a decent discount...

Brian Freitas

Auckland Airport - Calibrating The (Likely) Aero Price Cut

Auckland Airport's (AIA) aeronautical pricing outlook is positive, but is likely to take a short-term hit as a result of the Commerce Commission's...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Funding Terminal Value

Auckland Airport's (AIA) NZ$1.4bn equity raise to support its capital development programme suggests a conservative approach to managing its...

Forsyth Barr

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