Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) reported a strong 1H24 result, more than doubling the prior year NPAT, reflective of the recovery in international air travel and materially higher aeronautical prices.</li><li>However, earnings growth should slow markedly over the next 12 months as the passenger (pax) recovery has stalled, and the costs associated with its major capex programmes hit the profit and loss account as assets are commissioned. </li><li>Capex spend is at elevated levels and will remain elevated for the next few years. A capital raise is still possible, given a likely breach of S&amp;P credit metrics over the medium term, but would be well supported. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) reported a strong 1H24 result, more than doubling the prior year NPAT, reflective of the recovery in international air travel and materially higher aeronautical prices.However, earnings growth should slow markedly over the next 12 months as the passenger (pax) recovery has stalled, and the costs associated with its major capex programmes hit the profit and loss account as assets are commissioned. Capex spend is at elevated levels and will remain elevated for the next few years. A capital raise is still possible, given a likely breach of S&amp;P credit metrics over the medium term, but would be well supported. 

Auckland Airport - 1H24 — Ascending into Regulatory Clouds

<ul><li>Air New Zealand's (AIR) official request to the Minister of Commerce, for an inquiry into the regulation of Auckland Airport (AIA), adds to the risk that the current favourable regulatory backdrop for airports changes in future.</li><li>​​​​AIA, along with Wellington and Christchurch airports, is currently subject to information disclosure within Part 4 of the Commerce Act.</li><li>AIR and other airlines would prefer the framework to incorporate negotiate/arbitrate regulation. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand's (AIR) official request to the Minister of Commerce, for an inquiry into the regulation of Auckland Airport (AIA), adds to the risk that the current favourable regulatory backdrop for airports changes in future.​​​​AIA, along with Wellington and Christchurch airports, is currently subject to information disclosure within Part 4 of the Commerce Act.AIR and other airlines would prefer the framework to incorporate negotiate/arbitrate regulation. 

Auckland Airport  - A Right Regulatory Ruck

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) will report a strong recovery in earnings, given the increase in air traffic over the past 18 months, when it reports its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024.</li><li>However, passenger (pax) development, as outlined in its monthly operating stats, has been below the level implied by the pax guidance provided at the FY23 result.</li><li>Consequently, FY24 NPAT guidance (NZ$260m–NZ$280m) is at risk, albeit at least partially mitigated by (1) improving retail income, and (2) AIA's historic conservative nature when setting earnings guidance. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) will report a strong recovery in earnings, given the increase in air traffic over the past 18 months, when it reports its 1H24 result on 22 February 2024.However, passenger (pax) development, as outlined in its monthly operating stats, has been below the level implied by the pax guidance provided at the FY23 result.Consequently, FY24 NPAT guidance (NZ$260m–NZ$280m) is at risk, albeit at least partially mitigated by (1) improving retail income, and (2) AIA's historic conservative nature when setting earnings guidance. 

Auckland Airport 1H24 Preview — Capex to the Fore

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) is lodging an appeal with the High Court, together with Wellington and Christchurch airports, and separately via the NZ Airports Association, against the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent Input Methodologies (IM) decision.</li><li>Details of the appeals are not public, but given the interest and changes made by the ComCom through the IM review process last year in its assessment of the asset beta for airports, we expect this will be a key area of the appeals. </li><li>The current regulatory regime for airports is favourable for AIA, providing a high RAB (regulatory asset base) multiple (we currently assume ~2.0x) for its aeronautical assets. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) is lodging an appeal with the High Court, together with Wellington and Christchurch airports, and separately via the NZ Airports Association, against the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent Input Methodologies (IM) decision.Details of the appeals are not public, but given the interest and changes made by the ComCom through the IM review process last year in its assessment of the asset beta for airports, we expect this will be a key area of the appeals. The current regulatory regime for airports is favourable for AIA, providing a high RAB (regulatory asset base) multiple (we currently assume ~2.0x) for its aeronautical assets. 

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Auckland Airport just reported its full year results, this in effect frees its largest shareholder, Auckland City Council to progress with its...

Sumeet Singh

Auckland Airport - 1H24 — Ascending into Regulatory Clouds

Auckland Airport (AIA) reported a strong 1H24 result, more than doubling the prior year NPAT, reflective of the recovery in international air...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - A Right Regulatory Ruck

AIA, along with Wellington and Christchurch airports, is currently subject to information disclosure within Part 4 of the Commerce Act.

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport 1H24 Preview — Capex to the Fore

Auckland Airport (AIA) will report a strong recovery in earnings, given the increase in air traffic over the past 18 months, when it reports its...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Reviewing the Merits

The current regulatory regime for airports is favourable for AIA, providing a high RAB (regulatory asset base) multiple (we currently assume ~2.0x)...

Forsyth Barr

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