Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.</li>
<li>Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.</li>
<li>Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.</li>
</ul>


Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.
Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.
Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.


[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

<ul>
<li>Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.</li>
<li>Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.</li>
<li>Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook. </li>
</ul>


Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.
Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.
Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook. 


Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

<ul><li>Welcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig into the world of commodity inventories, which despite tightness doesn’t seem to matter unless demand surprises positively to the upside.</li><li>Something tells us that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.</li><li>We will mainly focus on industrial metals and grains, whereas energy inventories will be covered in our weekly Energy Cable / EIA Watch.</li></ul>

Welcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig into the world of commodity inventories, which despite tightness doesn’t seem to matter unless demand surprises positively to the upside.Something tells us that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.We will mainly focus on industrial metals and grains, whereas energy inventories will be covered in our weekly Energy Cable / EIA Watch.

Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

El Niño is known to bowl curved balls. Weather volatility is feeding in soybean price gyrations. Despite record harvests, continued Chinese bean...

Mint Finance

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...

Mint Finance

Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?

elcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

El Niño is known to bowl curved balls. Weather volatility is feeding in soybean price gyrations. Despite record harvests, continued Chinese bean...

Mint Finance

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

​Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...

Mint Finance

Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?

elcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...