Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Amrutha Raj

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>June witnessed heavy selling across major US crops across corn, beans and wheat with wheat taking the biggest hit.</li>
<li>Grain prices have been bearish on favorable supply. The adage of ‘rain makes grain’ has changed this summer to ‘grain falls like rain’ ahead of WASDE report.</li>
<li>Positive revisions are expected for major Wheat exporting countries US &amp; Russia, even as EU reels from adverse weather. US grain forecasts will follow suit and outweigh concerns</li>
</ul>


June witnessed heavy selling across major US crops across corn, beans and wheat with wheat taking the biggest hit.
Grain prices have been bearish on favorable supply. The adage of ‘rain makes grain’ has changed this summer to ‘grain falls like rain’ ahead of WASDE report.
Positive revisions are expected for major Wheat exporting countries US &amp; Russia, even as EU reels from adverse weather. US grain forecasts will follow suit and outweigh concerns


[WASDE Preview] Bounty Harvest of US Wheat & Corn; But Brace for Weak EU Forecast

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.</li>
<li>Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.</li>
<li>Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.</li>
</ul>


Hurricane Beryl started out as a category 5 hurricane, made landfall on the Texas Coast early Monday (08/July) &amp; weakened to a Tropical Depression.
Beryl has weakened and likely not significantly impact corn and soybean prices in the long run. Storm led rains will likely have a bearish effect on prices.
Beryl might bring much needed rain to Illinois, Indiana, and parts of Ohio, potentially providing favorable weather for corn and soybean growth in these areas.


Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

<ul>
<li>Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.</li>
<li>Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.</li>
<li>A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.</li>
</ul>


Corn and Wheat planted acreage are down 3% and 5% YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, Soybean total planted area is up by 5% YoY compared to 2023.
Planted acreage and ending stocks drove prices down for wheat and corn. Soybeans bucked the trend as reported acreage fell short of WASDE estimates by 400k acres.
A positive picture for 2024 planting season is visible, with the early benefits of warm temperatures and improved moisture levels setting the stage for strong yields.


Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

Pranay Yadav

<ul>
<li>Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.</li>
<li>Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.</li>
<li>Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.</li>
</ul>


Corn futures show high potential for momentum trading, peaking in early-year gains and declining from June, matching seasonal harvest patterns in major producers like China and Brazil.
Over the past five years, momentum trading in soybean futures outperformed other crops with average annual returns of USD 13,600, though 2024 saw significant losses reflecting its counter cyclical performance.
Bearish outlook for corn in 2024 due to increased global production outlook from key regions, bearish shifts by asset managers, and USDA forecasts predicting lower season-average prices.


Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.</li>
<li>USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.</li>
<li>The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.</li>
</ul>


I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I quickly realized that most PMs in the region agreed on my take on the imminent risk of a devaluation of the CNY.
USD/CNH call options are popular/consensus in the Asian Macro PM space, but interestingly there is no consensus around the contagion from a devaluation of the USDCNY.
The discussions I had pointed in all directions, meaning that a CNY devaluation holds the potential to turn into a macro earthquake, despite it already being a consensus position.


Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

[WASDE Preview] Bounty Harvest of US Wheat & Corn; But Brace for Weak EU Forecast

Rains makes grains. But this June, Grains have been falling like rains. Grain prices have come crashing with bounty harvest. What will WASDE report...

Mint Finance

Corn & Soybeans Yields Stand to Benefit from Storm Beryl Even as It Leaves Destruction in Its Path

Storm Beryl has flooded roads, closed ports, cancelled >1,300 flights, blacked out 2.7m homes, and killed >three people. It could spawn tornadoes...

Mint Finance

Crop Prices Plunge as Favorable US Weather Accelerates Planting, Growth, & Harvesting

Warm spring led to rapid planting for summer crops. Only 4% & 15% of intended corn & soybean acreage remain unplanted. Warmth aided winter wheat...

Mint Finance

Momentum Trading Opportunities In Agricultural Commodities

Momentum trading in agricultural commodities uses seasonal trends and fundamentals to optimize strategies for corn, wheat, and soybean futures....

Mint Finance

Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it

Happy Sunday from a sunny Copenhagen. I spent last week in Asia and even though I admittedly like to see my research as edgy and contrarian, I...

Steno Research

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