Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Softbank results were about as ugly as expected and the only major new information in our view was that they took a small (too small) write-down on their private holdings. </li>
<li>Masayoshi Son did Masayoshi Son things regaling investor with tales of “To the moon bro!” but offered little of substance to suggest a turnaround was near. </li>
<li>Ultimately we keep coming back to the question of where margin calls might be struck.</li>
</ul>


Softbank results were about as ugly as expected and the only major new information in our view was that they took a small (too small) write-down on their private holdings. 
Masayoshi Son did Masayoshi Son things regaling investor with tales of “To the moon bro!” but offered little of substance to suggest a turnaround was near. 
Ultimately we keep coming back to the question of where margin calls might be struck.


Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>Softbank reported record losses, as expected, including some writedowns in the private portfolio. That may not be enough to assuage concerns with valuations still in free fall</li>
<li>Management says tech's day will come again and it is best to be more defensive for now, including a slower pace of investing, which we think is positive</li>
<li>Concern on weak tech and high leverage likely keep the discount in the mid-50s range.  There was nothing today to signal an inflection is at hand</li>
</ul>


Softbank reported record losses, as expected, including some writedowns in the private portfolio. That may not be enough to assuage concerns with valuations still in free fall
Management says tech's day will come again and it is best to be more defensive for now, including a slower pace of investing, which we think is positive
Concern on weak tech and high leverage likely keep the discount in the mid-50s range.  There was nothing today to signal an inflection is at hand


Softbank Group Q4 21 Results Reaction: The Tech Winter Is Here

<ul>
<li>Softbank Corp will meet its mid-term business plan commitment of ¥1,000bn in FY22 operating income but it needs a boost from valuation gains from PayPay to get there</li>
<li>Operationally, it is forecasting a 11% EBITDA decline driven by mobile revenue erosion and higher marketing expense with the lack of a growth contribution from Z Holdings apparent</li>
<li>The good news is the dividend is unchanged.  We expect a better story from NTT and KDDI later in the week but stable returns provide support</li>
</ul>


Softbank Corp will meet its mid-term business plan commitment of ¥1,000bn in FY22 operating income but it needs a boost from valuation gains from PayPay to get there
Operationally, it is forecasting a 11% EBITDA decline driven by mobile revenue erosion and higher marketing expense with the lack of a growth contribution from Z Holdings apparent
The good news is the dividend is unchanged.  We expect a better story from NTT and KDDI later in the week but stable returns provide support


Softbank Corp Q4 21 Results Reaction: Behind the Headlines, Disappointing Guidance

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Life Insurance  of India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPOs front, LIC's anchor book wasn't great while Delhivery finally launched its IPO and Hong Kong market saw its first launch in a while.</li>
<li>Placements remained few and far between with only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-new-zealand-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:815:1" rel="noopener">Air New Zealand (AIR NZ)</a> launching its shortfall bookbuild.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPOs front, LIC's anchor book wasn't great while Delhivery finally launched its IPO and Hong Kong market saw its first launch in a while.
Placements remained few and far between with only Air New Zealand (AIR NZ) launching its shortfall bookbuild.


ECM Weekly (9th May 22) - LIC, Campus, Rainbow, Delhivery, Shieldus, Yunkang, PAG, Keep, Air NZ

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delhivery-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33471:1" rel="noopener">Delhivery (1058656D IN)</a> is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India. It will launch its Rs52.4 billion ($0.7 billion) IPO on 11 May.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delhivery-ipo-yet-to-convincingly-deliver" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:69440" rel="noopener">Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver</a>, we noted that the negatives outweigh the positives.  </li>
<li>In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. </li>
</ul>



Delhivery (1058656D IN) is the largest and fastest-growing 3PL express parcel delivery player in India. It will launch its Rs52.4 billion ($0.7 billion) IPO on 11 May.
In Delhivery IPO: Yet to Convincingly Deliver, we noted that the negatives outweigh the positives.  
In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. 


Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Softbank – Not Pretty

We see little in Softbank's earnings to arrest its expanding holdco discount and with NAV itself under pressure we are increasingly curious where...

Mio Kato

Softbank Group Q4 21 Results Reaction: The Tech Winter Is Here

This was a rough quarter but that was clearly well flagged as shares fell 8% before the annoucement and the discount has widened to 54%. We expect...

Kirk Boodry

Softbank Corp Q4 21 Results Reaction: Behind the Headlines, Disappointing Guidance

Softbank Corp will meet its mid-term business plan commitment of ¥1,000bn in FY22 operating income but 11% EBITDA erosion before the impact of one...

Kirk Boodry

ECM Weekly (9th May 22) - LIC, Campus, Rainbow, Delhivery, Shieldus, Yunkang, PAG, Keep, Air NZ

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Delhivery IPO: Valuation Insights

In this note, we look at the valuation metrics. We think that Delhivery is at best fairly valued at the IPO price range. Our recommendation is to...

Arun George

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