Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Speculation of a Qualcomm-Intel deal diminishes, while Japan boosts semiconductor subsidies to benefit Rapidus, with further support anticipated.</li><li>China's semiconductor industry growth poses a threat to South Korean companies, prompting Samsung to weigh integration of ChatGPT, sparking concerns over its Google partnership.</li><li>Hiwin bolsters its robotics presence by partnering with Boston Dynamics, expanding its influence in the industry, as India eyes doubling 5G subscriptions by 2030.</li></ul>

Speculation of a Qualcomm-Intel deal diminishes, while Japan boosts semiconductor subsidies to benefit Rapidus, with further support anticipated.China's semiconductor industry growth poses a threat to South Korean companies, prompting Samsung to weigh integration of ChatGPT, sparking concerns over its Google partnership.Hiwin bolsters its robotics presence by partnering with Boston Dynamics, expanding its influence in the industry, as India eyes doubling 5G subscriptions by 2030.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Nov-2024): Qualcomm-Intel deal talk ends.

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>SoftBank group (SBG) relies mainly on Arm re-rating further for NAV growth, yet Arm’s valuation already discounts, in our view, much growth potential; SBG and Arm shares are highly correlated</li>
<li>JPY-USD FX has weakened recently, but the potential for BoJ monetary tightening could reverse this trend impacting SBG, given the high skew of USD assets relative to USD liabilities</li>
<li>The Vision Funds are hampered by few private company exits; SBG’s NAV discount remains high, but its dependence on Arm is a major risk; we turn negative on SBG</li>
</ul>


SoftBank group (SBG) relies mainly on Arm re-rating further for NAV growth, yet Arm’s valuation already discounts, in our view, much growth potential; SBG and Arm shares are highly correlated
JPY-USD FX has weakened recently, but the potential for BoJ monetary tightening could reverse this trend impacting SBG, given the high skew of USD assets relative to USD liabilities
The Vision Funds are hampered by few private company exits; SBG’s NAV discount remains high, but its dependence on Arm is a major risk; we turn negative on SBG


Softbank (9984 JP): The Importance of Arm Is More a Curse than a Blessing

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>USTs were sold off across the curve yesterday. The yield on the 10Y UST increased 12 bps to 4.42%.</li>
<li>Open interest rose for the fourth consecutive session on the 2Y notes contract, with traders building up bearish positions following the US presidential election.</li>
<li>Traders are pricing in just over a 50% chance that officials will deliver another quarter-point rate cut in December, and are now pricing in about two US rate cuts through June 2025 (vs. almost four projected at the start of last week).</li>
</ul>


USTs were sold off across the curve yesterday. The yield on the 10Y UST increased 12 bps to 4.42%.
Open interest rose for the fourth consecutive session on the 2Y notes contract, with traders building up bearish positions following the US presidential election.
Traders are pricing in just over a 50% chance that officials will deliver another quarter-point rate cut in December, and are now pricing in about two US rate cuts through June 2025 (vs. almost four projected at the start of last week).


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a> was trading at an unjustifiable premium to NAV at the time of my last report back in August. Now it's even more unjustifiable. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PCCW/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a>, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



PCCW Ltd (8 HK) was trading at an unjustifiable premium to NAV at the time of my last report back in August. Now it's even more unjustifiable. 
Preceding my comments on PCCW/HKT Ltd (6823 HK), and Softbank Group (9984 JP)/ARM Holdings (ARM US), are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: PCCW's Questionable NAV Premium. Plus Softbank Vs. Arm

<ul>
<li>The SoftBank NAV discount is historically high, which makes it appear optically attractive; despite this, we turn neutral on SoftBank group from our previous positive recommendation, due to its headwinds</li>
<li>JPY strength is a key challenge, especially since the new Japanese prime minister supports the BoJ normalising monetary policy; this means BoJ tightening whilst many other central banks are easing</li>
<li>Arm Holdings’ super premium valuation versus its peers is another potential headwind for SoftBank group shares and NAV, combined with the high correlation between Arm Holdings and SoftBank group shares</li>
</ul>


The SoftBank NAV discount is historically high, which makes it appear optically attractive; despite this, we turn neutral on SoftBank group from our previous positive recommendation, due to its headwinds
JPY strength is a key challenge, especially since the new Japanese prime minister supports the BoJ normalising monetary policy; this means BoJ tightening whilst many other central banks are easing
Arm Holdings’ super premium valuation versus its peers is another potential headwind for SoftBank group shares and NAV, combined with the high correlation between Arm Holdings and SoftBank group shares


Softbank (9984 JP) - Despite the High NAV Discount, We See Greater Headwinds; Downgrading to Neutral

Japan

SoftBank Group Corp. provides telecommunication services. The Company also operates ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) and fiber optic high-speed Internet connection, e-Commerce businesses, and Internet based advertising and auction businesses.

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Softbank Group (9984 JP)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Nov-2024): Qualcomm-Intel deal talk ends.

Qualcomm-Intel deal speculation fades, Japan increases semiconductor subsidies, China's industry threatens South Korea, ChatGPT integration...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Softbank (9984 JP): The Importance of Arm Is More a Curse than a Blessing

SoftBank's reliance on Arm for NAV growth is a significant risk, given Arm's rich valuations, with potential risks from a JPY-USD FX reversal and...

Victor Galliano

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Open interest rose for the fourth consecutive session on the 2Y notes contract, with traders building up bearish positions following the US...

Lucror Analytics

StubWorld: PCCW's Questionable NAV Premium. Plus Softbank Vs. Arm

Valuation-wise, PCCW is trading full. I'd reverse the stub here, however this unjustifiable NAV premium has become even more unjustiifiable. Avoid....

David Blennerhassett

Softbank (9984 JP) - Despite the High NAV Discount, We See Greater Headwinds; Downgrading to Neutral

SoftBank's high NAV discount may seem optically attractive, but headwinds have increased; JPY strength is on the rise and Arm Holdings' premium...

Victor Galliano

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Dividend (Yield)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Nov-2024): Qualcomm-Intel deal talk ends.

Qualcomm-Intel deal speculation fades, Japan increases semiconductor subsidies, China's industry threatens South Korea, ChatGPT integration...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Softbank (9984 JP): The Importance of Arm Is More a Curse than a Blessing

​SoftBank's reliance on Arm for NAV growth is a significant risk, given Arm's rich valuations, with potential risks from a JPY-USD FX reversal and...

Victor Galliano

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

Open interest rose for the fourth consecutive session on the 2Y notes contract, with traders building up bearish positions following the US...

Lucror Analytics

StubWorld: PCCW's Questionable NAV Premium. Plus Softbank Vs. Arm

Valuation-wise, PCCW is trading full. I'd reverse the stub here, however this unjustifiable NAV premium has become even more unjustiifiable. Avoid....

David Blennerhassett

Softbank (9984 JP) - Despite the High NAV Discount, We See Greater Headwinds; Downgrading to Neutral

​SoftBank's high NAV discount may seem optically attractive, but headwinds have increased; JPY strength is on the rise and Arm Holdings' premium...

Victor Galliano

SoftBank's reliance on Arm for NAV growth is a significant risk, given Arm's rich valuations, with potential risks from a JPY-USD FX reversal and...

SoftBank's high NAV discount may seem optically attractive, but headwinds have increased; JPY strength is on the rise and Arm Holdings' premium...