HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Anhui’s new VBP included OTC TCM for the first time, which poses a big challenge to the pricing autonomy of CR Sanjiu. This makes Sanjiu's acquisition of Tasly more important/urgent. </li>
<li>Novo Nordisk's performance has raised concerns. The capacity bottleneck for weight-loss drugs seems resolved. Could this signal that the market for weight-loss drugs is reaching its peak?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keymed-biosciences-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33011:1" rel="noopener">Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)</a>’s CM310 will miss this year’s NRDL negotiations, putting the company at a disadvantage. Considering the competitive landscape, we are concerned about Keymed’s performance.</li>
</ul>


Anhui’s new VBP included OTC TCM for the first time, which poses a big challenge to the pricing autonomy of CR Sanjiu. This makes Sanjiu's acquisition of Tasly more important/urgent. 
Novo Nordisk's performance has raised concerns. The capacity bottleneck for weight-loss drugs seems resolved. Could this signal that the market for weight-loss drugs is reaching its peak?

Keymed Biosciences (2162 HK)’s CM310 will miss this year’s NRDL negotiations, putting the company at a disadvantage. Considering the competitive landscape, we are concerned about Keymed’s performance.


China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lygend-resources-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36493:1" rel="noopener">Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK)</a> brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wynn-macau-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1" rel="noopener">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a> broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.
</li>
</ul>


Wide dispersion of returns has meant that industry sector investing  was a major performance contributor in Hong Kong

Lygend Resources &amp; Technology (2245 HK) brokeout after Indonesia announced a moratorium on new nickel mining permits.  Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) broke its falling wedge pattern after announcing results.


Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK) broke to a new low after announcing a disappointing 2Q EBITDA.  The sector is also affected by a crackdown on illegal money exchange operations.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Event-Driven

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.</li>
<li>Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.</li>
<li>Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.</li>
</ul>


TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.
Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.
Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sciclone-pharmaceuticals-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17351:1" rel="noopener">Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)</a>'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Sciclone Pharmaceuticals (6600 HK)'s scheme document is out, and the court meeting is scheduled for 19 June. The IFA considers the HK$18.80 per share offer fair and reasonable. 
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). No independent shareholder holds a blocking stake.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for the 12 July payment, the gross and annualised spread is 2.2% and 17.3%, respectively.


SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 17th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past week, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 17th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past week, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

China

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group manufactures and supplies branded generic pharmaceuticals to the China market. The Company's products include antibiotics, anti-cancer medications and anti-stroke medications.

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Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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China Healthcare Weekly (Sep.22) - CR Sanjiu's Trouble, Weight-Loss Drug Market Saturation, Keymed

​Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (AUGUST 15)

Successful returns in Hong Kong has meant getting the industry right! Lygend benefits from moratorium on new nickel mine permits. Sino Bio RX...

David Mudd

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

​Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

SciClone Pharma (6600 HK): Scheme Vote on 19 June

SciClone has received a letter of support from Pentwater Capital Management to vote YES. Pentwater represents 4.64% of out. shares and 8.51% of...

Arun George

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 17th): Hang Seng Bank, Swire Pacific, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Hang Seng Bank (11...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Anhui's VBP includes OTC TCM, challenging CR Sanjiu's pricing autonomy. There are concerns about weight-loss drug market saturation. CM310 missing...

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....