Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.</li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.</li>
<li>Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. </li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts to play with.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net sell RMB 18.6bn of A-shares on slightly lighter activity. Friday saw large NORTHBOUND net buys early in the day but ended a net sell.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still. 


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.</li>
<li>NORTHBOUND saw net inflow for the first time in three months. Small at RMB 557mm, but positive.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.
NORTHBOUND saw net inflow for the first time in three months. Small at RMB 557mm, but positive.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 3Nov23): First Week of Net Buying in 3mos

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mindray’s Q3 revenue growth slowed significantly, dragging down the overall revenue growth. This was related to China’s anti-corruption campaign, the impact of which is expected to linger for some time.</li>
<li>Our 2023 forecast is revenue up 15-18% YoY. Anti-corruption campaign would lead to declining demand and growth ceiling of domestic medical equipment market, thus negatively affecting Mindray’s future performance growth.</li>
<li>Investors may need to prepare in advance for Mindray's future revenue growth to fall to 15%.Based on this, PE TTM of around 30 is reasonable valuation for Mindray, not undervalued.</li>
</ul>


Mindray’s Q3 revenue growth slowed significantly, dragging down the overall revenue growth. This was related to China’s anti-corruption campaign, the impact of which is expected to linger for some time.
Our 2023 forecast is revenue up 15-18% YoY. Anti-corruption campaign would lead to declining demand and growth ceiling of domestic medical equipment market, thus negatively affecting Mindray’s future performance growth.
Investors may need to prepare in advance for Mindray's future revenue growth to fall to 15%.Based on this, PE TTM of around 30 is reasonable valuation for Mindray, not undervalued.


Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760.CH) 23Q3- Future Performance Slowdown Is Inevitable

<ul>
<li>Mindray's 23H1 results were in line with expectations. The high growth in Q2 has given us more confidence in the “complementarity of performance” between different business lines of the company.</li>
<li>Mindray is right to acquire DiaSys,but Mindray should disclose the impact of M&amp;A on financial statements.When investors understand how to "quantify" M&amp;As, positive news would be reflected in stock price.</li>
<li>The anti-corruption campaign and foreign capital outflows have weighed on Mindray’s share prices. Based on our analysis, the decline offers a good buying opportunity and share price will rebound afterwards.</li>
</ul>


Mindray's 23H1 results were in line with expectations. The high growth in Q2 has given us more confidence in the “complementarity of performance” between different business lines of the company.
Mindray is right to acquire DiaSys,but Mindray should disclose the impact of M&amp;A on financial statements.When investors understand how to "quantify" M&amp;As, positive news would be reflected in stock price.
The anti-corruption campaign and foreign capital outflows have weighed on Mindray’s share prices. Based on our analysis, the decline offers a good buying opportunity and share price will rebound afterwards.


Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760.CH) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Mindray withstood the negative impact of pandemic/lockdown and continued to achieve solid growth in 2022H1 amid China's “new infrastructure”  projects and the recovery of overseas demand for routine medical care.</li>
<li>The essence of falling shares is the process of optimistic high growth expectations returning to rationality,which takes time until the cyclical shocks brought by the receding of pandemic are digested.</li>
<li>Mindray’s biggest alpha could be the change brought about by M&amp;A. From the perspective of strategic development, the next jump in valuation is likely to depend on subsequent M&amp;A performance.</li>
</ul>


Mindray withstood the negative impact of pandemic/lockdown and continued to achieve solid growth in 2022H1 amid China's “new infrastructure”  projects and the recovery of overseas demand for routine medical care.
The essence of falling shares is the process of optimistic high growth expectations returning to rationality,which takes time until the cyclical shocks brought by the receding of pandemic are digested.
Mindray’s biggest alpha could be the change brought about by M&amp;A. From the perspective of strategic development, the next jump in valuation is likely to depend on subsequent M&amp;A performance.


Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760.CH) 2022H1 - Waiting for the Next Jump in Valuation

China

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes medical equipment. The Company produces life information supporting, in vitro diagnostic, and medical imaging equipment equipment. Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics also produces supporting reagents.

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

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Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Dec 23): Mindray Consistently Bought, Midea Sold

NORTHBOUND Mainland Connect saw significant net outflows. It would have been a lot smaller but Friday mid-day saw a HUGE net buy day become a net...

Travis Lundy

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 3Nov23): First Week of Net Buying in 3mos

Northbound Connect flows were positive for the first time in three months last week. Top stocks saw the same. Watch for more jawboning on short...

Travis Lundy