Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.</li>
<li>2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.</li>
<li>While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.</li>
</ul>


Parts of the apparel/fashion sector made a complete recovery last year but performance was patchy, with high rates of growth from a few but more had sales below 2019.
2023-24 should be a stellar year thanks to inbound tourism growth and healthier, if still hesitant, domestic demand.
While profitability has risen significantly, the pressure to keep prices down is widening the gap between efficient operators and the rest.


Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.</li>
<li>The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.</li>
<li>There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.</li>
</ul>


As outlined in previous reports, Aeon has been working hard to streamline its vast retail empire but also rethinking the fundamentals of retailing for each major format it operates.
The results are now coming through with a big increase in operating profits in 1H2023, up 23% on last year.
There is real momentum now, and the new online supermarket business is central to its ambitions to create the first true national FMCG business.


Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.</li>
<li>The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.</li>
<li>If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s FQ2 OP exceeded consensus by ¥2.0bn (1.3%), but with FH2 revenue guidance lowered by ¥95bn, the overall outlook appears discouraging.
The company's shares fell by 5%, underperforming Topix by 3.8%, indicating investor concern about US growth and departing from activist proposals despite a ¥2.0bn earnings outperformance.
If overseas investors who supported ValueAct's proposals begin to exit, Seven &amp; I could face substantial downside risks in the near term.


Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>'s share price has remained below ¥6,600 since the end of its bull run in March 2023.</li>
<li>Short-Term optimism hinges on a substantial earnings beat, but the US business challenges make it unlikely.</li>
<li>Seven &amp; I faces valuation risks, trading near peak multiples with diminishing growth prospects.</li>
</ul>



Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)'s share price has remained below ¥6,600 since the end of its bull run in March 2023.
Short-Term optimism hinges on a substantial earnings beat, but the US business challenges make it unlikely.
Seven &amp; I faces valuation risks, trading near peak multiples with diminishing growth prospects.


Seven & I: Challenging Guidance, The US Business Needs to Fire on All Cylinders

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX closed Friday +0.1% and Week -1.1%; US economy turning out to be stronger than expected - fueling persistence in high rates; China Autos Sales recovery in August</li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle cabinet on Wed; Omron to make JMDC a subsidiary; Broker upgrades to BUY: JMDC, Nissan Chem, Toyo Tanso</li>
<li>JAPAN X: FY23 Sees Keyence's Salaries Hit New Heights . Not accident but result of high productivity.  Want to raise wages - funnel labor into high productivity firms !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX closed Friday +0.1% and Week -1.1%; US economy turning out to be stronger than expected - fueling persistence in high rates; China Autos Sales recovery in August
JAPAN:  NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle cabinet on Wed; Omron to make JMDC a subsidiary; Broker upgrades to BUY: JMDC, Nissan Chem, Toyo Tanso
JAPAN X: FY23 Sees Keyence's Salaries Hit New Heights . Not accident but result of high productivity.  Want to raise wages - funnel labor into high productivity firms !


Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

Japan

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company which was established through the merger of Ito-Yokado Co., Seven Eleven Japan Co., and Denny's Japan. The Company plans, manages, and operates mainly convenience stores, supermarkets, and department stores.

Price Gauge
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Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)

Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Michael Causton

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I: Challenging Guidance, The US Business Needs to Fire on All Cylinders

Seven & I Holdings' share price has struggled since March 2023, with short-term optimism unlikely due to US business challenges and valuation risks.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

US Equities fall WoW on Strong Economy - fueling fears of persistence in high rates; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan's Fashion Sector 2023: Recovery Complete for Some as the Sector Looks Forward

​Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Michael Causton

Aeon Keeps Working After High Profit Growth

​Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Michael Causton

Seven & I: Unimpressive Results & Potential Investor Exodus Amidst Superstore Transformation

​Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Seven & I: Challenging Guidance, The US Business Needs to Fire on All Cylinders

​Seven & I Holdings' share price has struggled since March 2023, with short-term optimism unlikely due to US business challenges and valuation risks.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ohayo Japan: Strong US Economy->High Rate Fears; JAPAN X: Keyence: High Productivity = High Salaries

US Equities fall WoW on Strong Economy - fueling fears of persistence in high rates; NKY Futures -0.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.8; Kishida to reshuffle...

Mark Chadwick

Apparel sector's recovery in 2022 was uneven. Tourism and domestic demand are expected to boost 2023-24 sales, but pricing pressure is widening...

Aeon's efforts to revamp its retail empire and rethink strategies are paying off, with a 23% rise in OP in 1H2023. A new online store is key to...

Seven & I Holdings' FQ2 OP beat expectations, but lowered revenue guidance for FH2 is concerning. Shares fell 5% as investors worry about US...

Seven & I Holdings' share price has struggled since March 2023, with short-term optimism unlikely due to US business challenges and valuation risks.