Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>One may presume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> moved their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shares received from their non-CCASS holdings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. It does not tell us much else. </li>
<li>Allocation in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a> partial Offer was 44.14%. With shares trading ~₩95k, that was a pretty good outcome. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> has asked the Japanese government to investigate YFO's alleged breaches of FEFTA. Expect YFO to say they did no wrong. Expect Toyo to complain about it. </li>
</ul>


One may presume that Prosus (PRX NA) moved their Meituan (3690 HK) shares received from their non-CCASS holdings of Tencent (700 HK). It does not tell us much else. 
Allocation in the S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) partial Offer was 44.14%. With shares trading ~₩95k, that was a pretty good outcome. 

Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has asked the Japanese government to investigate YFO's alleged breaches of FEFTA. Expect YFO to say they did no wrong. Expect Toyo to complain about it. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, S.M.Entertainment, Toyo, Mincor, JD.com, AAG

<ul>
<li>There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> tilt; Malteries Soufflet's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt (UMG AU)</a> Offer; Bain Capital's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia (EHE AU)</a> Offer. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: Albemarle (ALB US)'s Liontown Resources (LTR AU) tilt; Malteries Soufflet's United Malt (UMG AU) Offer; Bain Capital's Estia (EHE AU) Offer. 
Key updates took place for Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), andGolden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

<ul>
<li>Aged care provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> has appointed UBS to advise on Bain Capital's $3.00/share non-binding proposal.</li>
<li>The indicative  Offer arrives a little over two months after Kerry Stokes-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a> off-loaded its 10% stake at ~ $2.00/share.</li>
<li>Separately, Regal Fund announced it has taken a 7% stake.</li>
</ul>


Aged care provider Estia Health (EHE AU) has appointed UBS to advise on Bain Capital's $3.00/share non-binding proposal.
The indicative  Offer arrives a little over two months after Kerry Stokes-backed Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) off-loaded its 10% stake at ~ $2.00/share.
Separately, Regal Fund announced it has taken a 7% stake.


Estia Health: Bain's Non-Binding Proposal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a> confirmed it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.00 per share, a 28.2% premium to the undisturbed price (23 March).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples and implies a premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2086:1" rel="noopener">Regis Healthcare (REG AU)</a>’s (the key peer) multiples.  </li>
<li>However, the offer is light in comparison to precedent transactions multiples. The largest shareholder has also suggested the terms are light, which suggests a requirement for a bump.</li>
</ul>



Estia Health (EHE AU) confirmed it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bain Capital at A$3.00 per share, a 28.2% premium to the undisturbed price (23 March).
The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and multiples and implies a premium to Regis Healthcare (REG AU)’s (the key peer) multiples.  
However, the offer is light in comparison to precedent transactions multiples. The largest shareholder has also suggested the terms are light, which suggests a requirement for a bump.


Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> in April following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Then there could be another change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in June.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.</li>
</ul>


There could be an addition to the S&amp;P/ASX 100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) in April following OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)'s acquisition by BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU).
Then there could be another change for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in June.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 4.5-18 days of ADV on the potential adds/ deletes. Short interest has started to increase on a couple of stocks.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Australia

Reece Limited operates as a plumbing, building and hardware merchant throughout Australia.  The Company offers a variety of bathroom, kitchen and laundry products through its national stores and showrooms.  Reece's products are utilized by plumbers, consumers, architects, builders and interior designers.

Emeco Holdings Limited provides commercial equipment rental services. The Company rents earthmoving equipment to the mining industries in Australia and Indonesia.

Coventry Group Limited is involved in the distribution of automotive parts, tools, workshop equipment and associated products, fasteners, bearings, fluid systems and mining and industrial products.  The Company also manufactures and applies bitumen, asphalt and related products along with manufacturing automotive and industrial gaskets.

HGL Ltd is a distributor of branded products into niche markets. The company mainly distributes and markets school uniforms, head wear, fabrics, collector model cars, optical and beauty care products, lighting equipment and copying and printing solutions and consumables. It also designs and distributes a wide range of price ticketing, shelf management and promotional display products.

Johns Lyng Group Limited provides non-residential construction services. The Company offers construction, building, and support services, as well as software products, home maintenance, and call center services. Johns Lyng Group serves clients in Australia.

Monadelphous Group Limited provides engineering and construction services to the resources and petrochemical industries. The Company provides mining and processing industry maintenance, mining equipment refurbishment, project management, construction, and airport ground handling services. Monadelphous Group serves customers in Australia.

NRW Holdings Limited provides mining and civil construction services. The Company offers rail formation, bulk earthworks, mine development, road and tunnel construction, topsoil removal, and a range of contract mining services. NRW Holdings serves customers in Australia.

Austal Limited is an emerging global defence prime contractor. The Group supplies vessel platforms such as the Littoral Combat Ship and the Joint High Speed Vessel to the United States Navy, an extensive range of patrol and auxiliary vessels to defence forces around the world, and installs and maintains military communications, radar and command and control systems.

Service Stream Limited is a specialized fixed, wireless and broadband telecommunications service provider. The Company acquires property, plans, approves, designs, constructs, installs, commissions, and provides ongoing maintenance forwireless communications facilities. The Company also provides installation, construction and maintenance services for the telecom industry.

GWA Group Ltd. manufactures building fittings for households and commercial premises.  The Company designs, manufactures, imports and distributes domestic and commercial bathroom, kitchen and laundry products; manufactures and imports hot water and ducted heating and cooling systems; and designs, manufactures, imports and distributes door hardware and fittings and garage doors and openers.

Posco International Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company exports and imports steel, cement, crude oil, heavy machinery, automobile parts, and textiles.  Daewoo also manufactures synthetic fabrics for footwear, garments, and car seats, and operates a department store in Masan.

Posco International Corporation (047050 KS)

WESCO International, Inc. distributes electrical products and other industrial maintenance, repair, and operating supplies.  The Company also provides integrated supply services.  WESCO operates branches and distribution centers in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, Guam, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Singapore, which serve customers worldwide.

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. distributes bearings and seals, power transmission and fluid power components, hydraulic and pneumatic components, industrial rubber products, linear components, and general maintenance items. The Company also provides engineering design and systems integration services, as well as mechanical, fabricated rubber, and fluid power shop services.

IMCD Group NV sells specialty chemicals and food ingredients. The Company supplies detergent surfactants, builders, rheology modifiers, solubilizers, and functional additives. IMCD serves customers worldwide.

Rexel SA distributes low voltage electrical equipment.  The Company distributes wires, cables, ducts, heating, light and ventilation equipment, security equipment, household appliances, and products which connect computer peripherals to networks.  Rexel sells its products to electrical contractors, industrial and service sector companies, homeowners, and government agencies.

Brenntag AG sells and distributes industrial and specialty chemicals.  The Company also develops and prepares specific chemical compounds and offers analysis services.  Brenntag's customers include oil and gas, paint, cosmetic, pharmaceutical, and water treatment companies.

Diploma plc is a holding company for a group of subsidiaries that distribute and manufacture building components and special seals. The subsidiaries distribute an assortment of scientific and laboratory equipment and telecommunications products. The Company primarily operates throughout the UK, but sells its products internationally.

AddTech AB offers high-tech industrial components and systems.  The Company creates customer specific solutions within the areas Equipment, Transmission, and Components.  AddTech works in close cooperation with both customers and suppliers.  The Company's largest customer segments are the engineering, telecommunications, automotive, and electronic industries in the Nordic area.

Beijer Ref AB, through subsidiaries, manufactures cooling and heating systems, and is a supplier of raw materials, industrial equipment, tools, and parts.  The Company's product range includes rubber and plastic products, packing materials, as well as air conditioning and refrigeration systems.  Beijer operates and sells its products to large industrial companies in northern Europe.

Indutrade AB provides engineering and equipment, flow technology, industrial components, and special products.  The Company sells its products to industrial companies primarily in Northern Europe.

Seven Group Holdings Ltd. is a diversified operating and investment group. The Groups interests include media holdings that include Seven Network, a commercial television network and publishing company, a telecommunications company, and a heavy equipment dealer that operates  Caterpillar dealerships in Australia and North Eastern China.

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Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, S.M.Entertainment, Toyo, Mincor, JD.com, AAG

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Estia Health: Bain's Non-Binding Proposal

The Offer price is not unreasonable. This is a non-binding situation - currently trading at a 13.9% gross spread. Get involved here and on any...

David Blennerhassett

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

The offer is attractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples but light in comparison to precedent transaction multiples. At the last...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, S.M.Entertainment, Toyo, Mincor, JD.com, AAG

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Liontown, United Malt, Estia, Mincor, Origin, Toyo, Toshiba

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Estia Health: Bain's Non-Binding Proposal

The Offer price is not unreasonable. This is a non-binding situation - currently trading at a 13.9% gross spread. Get involved here and on any...

David Blennerhassett

Estia Health (EHE AU): Bain Capital’s A$3.00 Offer

The offer is attractive in comparison to historical and peer multiples but light in comparison to precedent transaction multiples. At the last...

Arun George

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

There could be one change for the ASX100 & ASX200 in April and one change for the ASX200 in June. Passive trackers will trade between 4.5-18x ADV...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June