Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Jardine Strategic Holdings / Event-Driven


For the month of March, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$21bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.





New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 
Casino
6.3
Non-binding Scheme
36.8%


Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Blackstone Rolls the Dice



McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 
Cosmetics
0.1
On-Market
6.9%


McPherson (MCP AU): Unconditional On-Market Offer



Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 
Admin provider
0.2
Scheme
8.6%


Mainstream Group (MAI AU): Go-Shop Provision Makes It Interesting



Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 
Mortgage broker
0.2
Scheme
66%



Mortgage Choice (MOC AU): REA's Scheme Offer









Hong Kong




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 
e-Commerce
4.3
Scheme
(30.2%)


China Youzan (8083 HK): Proposal Towards Relisting Youzan Tech








Japan




Funai Electric (6839 JP) 
Electronics
0.2
Tender Offer
25.2%


Funai Electric (6839 JP): Tender Offer Price Seems Light



IGNIS Ltd (3689 JP) 
Software
0.2
Tender Offer
52.12%


IGNIS (3689) MBO +63% Is Probably Too Light



Shoko Co Ltd (8090 JP) 
Trading co
0.1
Tender Offer
10.6%



Shoko (8090 JP) Tender Offer - Showa Denko Sells Too Cheap. Looks Bumpity Shoko (8090 JP) TOB:  Still Looks Bumpity




Takeei Corp (2151 JP)/ Rever Holdings Corp (5690 JP)

Staffing cos
0.5
Merger



Takeei (2151 JP) - Rever (5690 JP) Merger: TOPIX Event to Be Triggered








New Zealand




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 
Energy
2.1
Scheme
99%


Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow








Singapore




Global Cord Blood (CO US) 
Cord Blood
0.2
Pre-con proposal
65.4%


Global Cord Blood: Haitong Raids The Bank



Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) 
Conglomerate
5.5
Amalgamation
20.2%



Jardine Matheson: Collapsing The Circularity
Jardine Strategic: What's Yours Is Mine
Jardine Strategic: SGM On The 12 April




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 
IT Hardware
0.1
Partial
32.7%


Procurri Corporation (PROC SP): Partial Tender Offers Scant Opportunity. Read more: https://skr.ma/FTYAh








Singapore Reinsurance (SRE SP) 
Reinsurance
0.2
Vol. Offer
17.8%


Singapore Reinsurance (SRE SP): Tender Offer Trading Tight








Thailand




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 
Chemicals
0.3
Delisting Offer
57.8%


Vinythai (VNT TH): Delisting Offer From PTTGC








Philippines




2GO Group Inc (2GO PM) 
Logistics
0.2
MTO
30.49%


2GO Group (2GO PH): SMIC's MGO






Source: Smartkarma Insights





The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in March was ~33%, with a year-to-date average of ~32% (58 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 



Summary of News in March of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No March Update




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

No March Update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

No March Update




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

12-Mar: The Scheme booklet for Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) has been registered with ASIC. The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 16 April. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

4-Mar: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Trading Through Terms. Should You Fold Now?




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

11-Mar: Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Macquarie Ups Its Offer
18-Mar:Vitalharvest (VTH AU): Roc Blinks, And Bumps




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-Mar: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 

18-Mar: WPP AUNZ (WPP AU)'s Scheme booklet registered with the ASIC. Scheme Meeting to be held on the 21 April. 










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

No March update




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

1-Mar: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): And That's a Fail




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

No March update




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

3-Mar: PRC approval, a pre-condition, to the Offer remains outstanding in a monthly update from China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK).




HKC Holdings (190 HK) 

No March update. Despatch of Scheme Doc pushed out to 30 April 




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

22-Mar: I.T. (999 HK): Scheme Meeting 16 April. IFA Says Fair




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

18-Mar: Kerry Properties (683 HK) said it would: "declare a special dividend to distribute approximately 25% to 30% of such net proceeds" from the sake of shares in Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK).




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

18-Mar: Circular despatched. EGM on the 12 April




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 

No March update. Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK)extended the despatch of the Scheme Doc to 16 April.




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No March update. Scheme Doc pushed way out to 7 June 




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

11-Mar: There are some subtle changes to the MOU terms announced by Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) last night.  
Share to be acquired include 115,090,200 H shares AND 750,000 domestic shares or 65.04% of shares out, up from 64.62% in the initial announcement.  
 The price per H shares will be RMB42.8546/share , up from RMB42.1105.
23-Mar: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Be Wary Of Chasing The Delisting Bump




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

1-Mar: An update to say there is no update.




Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) 

No March update




Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 

No March update. The despatch of the Scheme Doc for Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) has been pushed back to the 21 April.










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 

No March update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No March update




National Aluminium (NACL IN) 

No March update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

13-Mar: Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y
17-Mar: Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size!










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Being Co Ltd (4734 JP) 
25-Mar: The Tender Offer for Being Co Ltd (4734 JP) was successful. The bidder now has 88+%.



BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
25-Mar: BeNEXT - Yumeshin Merger: FTSE Upweight Is a Positive Surprise




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
10-Mar: Matsukiyo-Cocokara Situation Gets Its Activist Noise Started 1-Mar:MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts which followed MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger




Dynac Holdings Corporation (2675 JP) 
No March update



Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

No March update




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

1-Mar: Japan Asia Group (3751) : Defense Against Hostile TOB Is Bad News
18-Mar: Murakami-San Launches New JAG (3751) Tender Offer




Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) 

13-Mar: Maeda Corp (1824 JP) has bought 21.8113mm shares of Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP).The pro-ration is 60.2913754%




N Field Co Ltd (6077 JP) 

No March update




Sakai Ovex (3408 JP) 

8-Mar: Savai Ovex MBO - A Very Weak Bump
28-Mar: Sakai Ovex Tender Offer Fails But The Stock Gains an Activist




Sanken Electric (6707 JP) 

9-Mar: Effissimo, Sanken, and Allegro - Thinking About the Future
25-Mar: Effissimo Capital Management held 24.05mm shares prior to launching its tender offer and it appears it managed to buy 24.04mm shares in the Tender Offer. That gets them to 19.93%, up from 9.97%. 




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 

9-Mar: After all was said and done, the Tender Offer was completed, with Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) getting to 19.9% after buying 1.625mm shares at JPY 1500/share. Pro-ration was quite high at 75.86%. 




Tsukui Corp (2398 JP) 

25-Mar: The Tsukui Corp (2398 JP) Tender Offer/MBO was completed successfully. The minimum hurdle was 29.316mm shares. The actual shares received in the Tender was 45.719mm or 64.07% of shares out. This will get squeezed out in the EGM as the non-tendering parties join with MBK and they have close to 90% together.




Unimat Retirement Community (9707 JP) 

26-Mar: the Unimat Retirement Community (9707 JP) Tender Offer was successful. The bidder got to 80.53%. An EGM will follow along with a squeezeout/delisting. The cowbell has not been very loud.










New Zealand


Comments (with links announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

No March update











Philippines


Comments (with links announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

19-Mar: The Tender Offer for Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) closed on the 8 March. The accepted Tender Offer Shares were intended to be crossed through the PSE eight business days after the close of the Tender Offer Period or on 18 March. That has now taken place. The public float now stands at 29.32%. 











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 

19-Mar: Offer declared unconditonal




GL Ltd (GLL SP) 

1-Mar: SIAS Questions GL Limited's Offer: More Bark Than Bite 15-Mar:  GL Limited: Guoco Bumps &amp; Declares Offer Unconditional 18-Mar: Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK) gets &gt;90% and will now move to compulsory acquire shares in GL Ltd (GLL SP).




Penguin International (PBS SP) 

24-Mar: Penguin International (PBS SP): Offer Extended, No Bump, Time to Unwind
26-Mar: 75% threshold surpassed: As at 6.00 p.m. (Singapore time) on 25 March 2021, the Offeror has gained control of 167,789,621 shares, representing approximately 76.21% of the total number of shares in the Company. 




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

11-Mar: Phew - that was close. 89.32% voted FOR but the headcount scrapped in at 56.56%.  Last day of trading in Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) was the 26 March.










Taiwan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

20-Mar: Jih Sun Financial Deal Down To The Wire
23-Mar: Jih Sun Tender Offer Successful - Now the Squeezeout






Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardines, Xiaomi, Tilt Renew, Kumho Petro, Kunlun Energy, Takeei/Rever

Travis Lundy

Late last night India time and into this morning HKT, Vedanta Resources <a href="https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/4f8390e6-f5a9-4fe2-8827-9b2f68c7c667.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an Announcement cum Corrigendum to Public Announcement, Detailed Public Statement and the Draft Letter of Offer which will be published today.On December 23, less than two weeks after the CEO said on public TV they had no plans to buy any more of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>, Vedanta Resources bought 4.98% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> in a block at Rs. 160/share. That capped what they could buy during the fiscal year under the creeper rule. On January 9, Vedanta Resources announced an Open Offer to buy 371,750,500 shares at Rs 160.00 apiece. Shares were already 10+% higher and commodity prices were soaring so it was likely they would need to pay up as discussed in several insights since. Just over two weeks ago, Vedanta Resources issued US$1.2bn of a bond designed where use of proceeds included paying for the Open Offer and other things. That US$1.2bn converted to rupees, if completely spent on VEDL shares would mean Rs 235.00.Last weekend I wrote that I didn't expect them to go that high, so upside from here was less event-y and more commodity-y.[Narrator:  They went that high]<h3>The NEW News</h3>Late last night, in its new announcement amending the Draft Letter of Offer, Vedanta Resources upped the size of its offer from 371.75mm shares (10.00%) to 651mm shares (17.51%) and raised the price from Rs 160/share to Rs 235/share which means a total payment of Rs 152.985 billion, which is US$2.11bn.It's on. The change in price is big. The change in size changes the risk parameters.Much more discussion below.

Late last night India time and into this morning HKT, Vedanta Resources announced an Announcement cum Corrigendum to Public Announcement, Detailed Public Statement and the Draft Letter of Offer which will be published today.On December 23, less than two weeks after the CEO said on public TV they had no plans to buy any more of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN), Vedanta Resources bought 4.98% of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) in a block at Rs. 160/share. That capped what they could buy during the fiscal year under the creeper rule. On January 9, Vedanta Resources announced an Open Offer to buy 371,750,500 shares at Rs 160.00 apiece. Shares were already 10+% higher and commodity prices were soaring so it was likely they would need to pay up as discussed in several insights since. Just over two weeks ago, Vedanta Resources issued US$1.2bn of a bond designed where use of proceeds included paying for the Open Offer and other things. That US$1.2bn converted to rupees, if completely spent on VEDL shares would mean Rs 235.00.Last weekend I wrote that I didn't expect them to go that high, so upside from here was less event-y and more commodity-y.[Narrator:  They went that high]The NEW NewsLate last night, in its new announcement amending the Draft Letter of Offer, Vedanta Resources upped the size of its offer from 371.75mm shares (10.00%) to 651mm shares (17.51%) and raised the price from Rs 160/share to Rs 235/share which means a total payment of Rs 152.985 billion, which is US$2.11bn.It's on. The change in price is big. The change in size changes the risk parameters.Much more discussion below.

Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size!

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Matheson/Strategic, Xiaomi, Vocus Comms, Sanken Electric, Cocokara

Three weeks ago <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> reached new two-year highs reaching to INR 195.00/share. I wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-soars-beyond-indicative-open-offer-level-not-expensive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48342" rel="noopener">Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive</a> that the stock was indeed quite a bit higher than the Indicative Open Offer level of INR160 - above which it had traded since December - but that it was not expensive. 
Q3 earnings had turned out to be quite respectable (there is a recap in that insight linked above), the stock was iterating towards the end of the year when the "cutoff" for the official Dividend Distribution Policy would be implemented (or ignored/dismissed), and if implemented, would mean a large dividend to VEDL shareholders, and because commodity prices continued to rise along with demand, the prospect of Q4 earnings being quite strong was certainly on the table. 
Since then, oil, iron ore, aluminum, copper are all up, and zinc and silver are down slightly. Theoretically, the combination of all these factors should mean VEDL would outperform its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> subsidiary in the short term, and indeed that has been the case. 
There is new news in the past two weeks which has caused further speculation, and the shares have risen 15% from that insight through the 10 March close. Importantly, in that same period, the Peer Basket has not moved one iota.
As a result, the VEDL vs Peers or VEDL vs HZ+Peers Price Ratio has now risen to the highest level since the covid-crash selloff and is shouting distance from the average level for all of 2019.
More comments follow.

Three weeks ago Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) reached new two-year highs reaching to INR 195.00/share. I wrote in Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive that the stock was indeed quite a bit higher than the Indicative Open Offer level of INR160 - above which it had traded since December - but that it was not expensive. 
Q3 earnings had turned out to be quite respectable (there is a recap in that insight linked above), the stock was iterating towards the end of the year when the "cutoff" for the official Dividend Distribution Policy would be implemented (or ignored/dismissed), and if implemented, would mean a large dividend to VEDL shareholders, and because commodity prices continued to rise along with demand, the prospect of Q4 earnings being quite strong was certainly on the table. 
Since then, oil, iron ore, aluminum, copper are all up, and zinc and silver are down slightly. Theoretically, the combination of all these factors should mean VEDL would outperform its Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) subsidiary in the short term, and indeed that has been the case. 
There is new news in the past two weeks which has caused further speculation, and the shares have risen 15% from that insight through the 10 March close. Importantly, in that same period, the Peer Basket has not moved one iota.
As a result, the VEDL vs Peers or VEDL vs HZ+Peers Price Ratio has now risen to the highest level since the covid-crash selloff and is shouting distance from the average level for all of 2019.
More comments follow.

Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

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Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: March 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in March was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (57 deals).

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardines, Xiaomi, Tilt Renew, Kumho Petro, Kunlun Energy, Takeei/Rever

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Vedanta (VEDL) Open Offer Raised in Price and Size!

Vedanta Resources has raised its Open Offer Price (235 vs 160) and size (17.5 vs 10%). This is likely to get done to the full extent or close to...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Jardine Matheson/Strategic, Xiaomi, Vocus Comms, Sanken Electric, Cocokara

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Vedanta (VEDL) Awaits Open Offer Revision. Now Less Event-y More Commodity-y

2 weeks ago, Vedanta Resources raised US$1.2bn to provide funding for its bid for another 10% of Vedanta Ltd (VEDL). They will need to revise the...

Travis Lundy

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