Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven


For the month of June, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$14.8bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Altium Ltd (ALU AU) 
Software
3.7
Scheme
41.5%


Altium Ltd (ALU) Rebuffs Autodesk Offer



Hansen Technologies (HSN AU) 
Software
1.0
Scheme
25.0%


Hansen Technologies (HSN AU)'s Assured Deal With BGH



Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) 
Fund manager
3.1
Scheme
20.0%



WHSP's Proposed Merger With Milton Corp Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb



 



Hong Kong




Bestway Global Holding (3358 HK) 
Leisure products
0.1
Scheme
27.0%


Bestway Global (3358 HK): Scheme Proposal From Founder



Soho China Ltd (410 HK) 
Real estate
3.3
VGO
31.6%


SOHO China (410 HK) Suspended Pursuant To The Takeovers Code - Again SOHO China's (410 HK) Done &amp; Dusted VGO



WH Group (288 HK) 
Meat supplier
0.5
Buyback/Partial



WH Group (288 HK): Today's Pig Is Tomorrow's Bacon?  WH Group Buyback Offer Announced - Strong Accretion Creates Accretion Risk  WH Group Vs Peers - Too Many Piggies Going to Market?






Japan




Oliver Corp (7959 JP) 
Designer
0.1
Tender Offer
39.0%


Oliver (7959 JP) MBO - Please Sir, I Want Some More!



Sanshin Electronics (8150 JP) 
Electronics
1.5
Buyback Tender



Sanshin Electronics (8150 JP) BIG Buyback Tender - Not Designed For You










Malaysia




Ijm Plantations (IJMP MK) 
Palm Oil
0.7
SPA/MGO
56.19%


IJM Plantations' Potential MGO From KLK







MMC Corp Bhd (MMC MK) 
Infrastructure
0.7
SCR
70.94%


MMC Corp (MMC MK): Privatisation Offer From Syed Mokhtar  MMC Corp (MMC MK): Let's Talk About Timing










Singapore




Dutech Holdings (DTECH SP) 
Security 
0.1
Cash Offer
60.0%


Dutech Holdings (DTECH SP): A Safe Bet


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in June was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~32% (89 deals &amp; total deal size of US$161bn). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in June of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




APN Property Group (APD AU) 

16-Jun: APN Property (APD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Firmed




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

2-Jun: Asaleo (ASX: AHY): Essity’s Offer Gets Up




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

9-Jun: Bingo Industries (BIN AU)'s Scheme Booklet has been registered with ASIC. 
The board unanimously recommends MIRA's Offer. The Independent Expert also gives the thumbs up. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 13 July with an expected implementation date of 5 August. 14-Jun: Bingo Industries (BIN AU): Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Tabled




Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 

4-Jun: Boral Ltd (BLD AU)'s Target Statement is expected to be released next week in response to Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) Offer.   9-Jun: Not surprisingly, in the Target Statement,  Boral Ltd (BLD AU) has recommended shareholders reject Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s Offer.  28-Jun: Boral Ltd (BLD AU) Rejects Seven's Bump




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

15-Jun: Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Oaktree's Intriguing Proposal




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No June update




Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 

15-Jun: Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Bolton Clarke Spoils Calvary's Charge




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

9-Jun: Mainstream (MAI AU): Apex on Top Again as Bidding War Continues.... 21-June: Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) confirmed that SS&amp;C did not exercise their matching rights. Consequently, they are now in discussions with Apex. Apex's Offer was at A$2.80/share.  25-Jun: Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) has confirmed that they have entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Apex. The Offer Price is A$2.80/share.




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

15-Jun: Arrotex walks - and McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) tanks 15.22%




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

No June update



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

3-Jun: Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria Offer Period Extended; Trading Wide 4-Jun: This Offer is now unconditional.




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

No June update




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

28-Jun: Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU)'s shareholders approve MAFM's Scheme. 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

22-Jun: Vocus Communications (VOC AU)'s shareholders overwhelmingly approve MIRA's Scheme.










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

4-Jun:  CMEC (1829 HK): Clarity On Timing As Pre-Cons Fulfilled




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

8-Jun: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

18-Jun: China Youzan (8083 HK) has now extends the Scheme long stop date out to the 26 November 2021. 




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 

8-Jun: As expected, Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) delays the Scheme Doc to the 9 July. I had the 17 July in my indicative table  18-Jun: Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) announced it has now pushed back the despatch of the Scheme Document to the 30 July, around two weeks past my prior estimate. 




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

7-Jun: The free float waiver has been received.  A bunch of other pre-cons still remain outstanding.  15-Jun: Shareholders of Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) approve the partial Offer. Various pre-conditions have yet to be fulfilled.  29-Jun: CFIUS approval received. Various pre-conditions remain outstanding. 




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

30-Jun: Scheme Doc out. Scheme Meeting is the 23 July. Payment expected on the 30 August. 




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

17-Jun: EGM gets up. Close of acceptances on the 2 July. This is done.










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Adani Power (ADANI IN) 

3-Jun: Not Much Time Left for Adani Power Delisting Offer




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

No June update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

20-Jun: VEDL has continued to outperform peers while VEDL has underperformed HZL so the VEDL stub has underperformed. 










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
No June update



BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No June update



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
1-Jun:  EPS MBO Is Cheap. Too Cheap. But Be Careful Of Your Assumptions




Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
15-Jun: Tender offer extended to the 9 July 25-Jun: Fuji Kosan Wins In Court, Aslead Walks Away




Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

No June update




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

14-Jun: The Tender Offer for Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) was completed. The owners now control 84.6%.




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

1-Jun: Starwood Bumps Invesco Office Price to Match But STILL Not a Done Deal. 11-Jun:  Invesco Real Estate Bumps Intended Tender Offer Price 16-Jun: Starwood Tender for Invesco Fails - Invesco Deal More Likely To Work But....  17-Jun: Invesco Real Estate have announced their Tender Offer for Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from June 18 to July 27. JPY 22,750/share. If you own, now is the time to sell. 



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
15-Jun: CIE Boosts Its Japan Asia Group (3751) TOB Price - Hidden Implications




Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

No June update



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
No June update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

23-Jun: Sawada Holdings (8699 JP)announced that after Khan Bank applied to the Mongolian Central Bank in February for permission to pay a dividend for the year ended 31/12/2020, the MCB had responded on 18 June and so the company will receive a dividend of JPY 4.41bn and record it as operating revenue in the current fiscal year. IN ADDITION, Sawada announced that the MCB had asked for confirmation and documentation on the selldown by a Qualifying Shareholder. This was Tower. Tower sold. Tower reported they had sold. This should be open and shut.  In the meantime, J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP) has 14.39% of Sawada. See the link.




Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP) 

1-Jun: The Tender Offer filing for Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)'s tender offer for Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) was filed on 31 May.




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

7-Jun: Toshiba Shareholder Return - A Little of This, A Little of That, But Sticky and Accretive 10-Jun: Toshiba's 2020 AGM Investigative Report Is Damning 11-Jun: Toshiba – Hands in the Cookie Jar 13-Jun: With Directors Under Fire, Toshiba Axes Two, May Need Another EGM 18-Jun: Toshiba – Who Should Stay and Who Should Go 22-Jun: Toshiba – A Tale of Two Investigative Reports 24-Jun: How Much of Toshiba Is Owned By "Activists"? The Answer 25-Jun: Toshiba Board in Disarray! Likely Need ANOTHER EGM 28-Jun: Toshiba – The Fallout




Yamada Denki (9831 JP) 

9-Jun: Yamada Denki and Otsuka Kagu Do The Deed - A Quick Merger









Malaysia


Comments 




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
15-Jun: Offer closed on the 15 June.



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
No June update











New Zealand


Comments (&amp; link to insight)




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

13-Jun: Tilt Renewables: Scheme Booklet Out. EGM Firmed











For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> in yet another contestable decision by the founders, face scrutiny in form of rising shareholder activism. The activism movement relates to the decision of selling its entire power arm, Jindal Power Limited to a promoter group entity, a decision that embarked a controversy. This is a second major shareholder activism, creating a roadblock for the promoters, after what happened with JSW Energy recently, which was covered by us in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/jsw-energy-fresh-trouble" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42651" rel="noopener">JSW Energy: Fresh Trouble</a>. 
With the above two entities combined with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vedanta-delisting-failure-the-upsurge-of-shareholder-activism-in-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44110" rel="noopener">Vedanta Delisting Failure: The Upsurge of Shareholder Activism in India?</a>  , one thing is certain, that shareholder activism in India is gaining credence, and it is about time that these promoter-family-businesses take them seriously.

Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) in yet another contestable decision by the founders, face scrutiny in form of rising shareholder activism. The activism movement relates to the decision of selling its entire power arm, Jindal Power Limited to a promoter group entity, a decision that embarked a controversy. This is a second major shareholder activism, creating a roadblock for the promoters, after what happened with JSW Energy recently, which was covered by us in JSW Energy: Fresh Trouble. 
With the above two entities combined with Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)'s Vedanta Delisting Failure: The Upsurge of Shareholder Activism in India?  , one thing is certain, that shareholder activism in India is gaining credence, and it is about time that these promoter-family-businesses take them seriously.

JSPL- Shareholder Activism Gains Credence

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Tabcorp, Invesco Office, Justbon, IHH Healthcare, JD.com

Travis Lundy

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> has, for the last year, been subject to dramatic corporate actions which have roiled the share price, and expectations. The launch last May of a Delisting Proposal by the promoters when the shares were trading sub Rs. 90/share led to a rally in the shares which could not even track peer stock performance, and when the Delisting Proposal failed, shares dropped to a dramatically low level, despite the fact that Vedanta owned its shareholders a substantial dividend from the pay-through of dividends from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>. As commodity prices continued to rally, and VEDL paid a big dividend in October 2020, it looked like the time to double-up. Everyone "knew" the promoters were willing to pay 40-50% than the post-Delisting Proposal failure to take the whole thing private. I expected a buyback. 10 days after the CEO said "we have no plans to buy more shares" we got an off-market block purchase of 5% by the promoters in December at Rs 160, followed a couple of weeks later by a proposed Open Offer to buy another 10%, which was later upsized and up-priced - by 47%, and still the Promoters could only get 10% of the 17.5% they sought to buy. A month on from that and the shares are nearly 10% higher than the Open Offer Price while a Peer Basket is largely unchanged from two months back. This means VEDL shares are again (as they were just before  at their high point against Peers since pre-pandemic. The current situation of covid-19 and variant spread in India is terrible and one could imagine that some drastic measures may still be taken to contain the spread, which could slow down the economy dramatically. The 70% catchup vs peers to reach the December 2019 level (as of post-Delisting Proposal failure) has now been caught up. The VEDL 2-3yr forward EV/EBIT ratio is now less than 1 turn from its long-term average spread to peers. More below the fold.

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) has, for the last year, been subject to dramatic corporate actions which have roiled the share price, and expectations. The launch last May of a Delisting Proposal by the promoters when the shares were trading sub Rs. 90/share led to a rally in the shares which could not even track peer stock performance, and when the Delisting Proposal failed, shares dropped to a dramatically low level, despite the fact that Vedanta owned its shareholders a substantial dividend from the pay-through of dividends from Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN). As commodity prices continued to rally, and VEDL paid a big dividend in October 2020, it looked like the time to double-up. Everyone "knew" the promoters were willing to pay 40-50% than the post-Delisting Proposal failure to take the whole thing private. I expected a buyback. 10 days after the CEO said "we have no plans to buy more shares" we got an off-market block purchase of 5% by the promoters in December at Rs 160, followed a couple of weeks later by a proposed Open Offer to buy another 10%, which was later upsized and up-priced - by 47%, and still the Promoters could only get 10% of the 17.5% they sought to buy. A month on from that and the shares are nearly 10% higher than the Open Offer Price while a Peer Basket is largely unchanged from two months back. This means VEDL shares are again (as they were just before  at their high point against Peers since pre-pandemic. The current situation of covid-19 and variant spread in India is terrible and one could imagine that some drastic measures may still be taken to contain the spread, which could slow down the economy dramatically. The 70% catchup vs peers to reach the December 2019 level (as of post-Delisting Proposal failure) has now been caught up. The VEDL 2-3yr forward EV/EBIT ratio is now less than 1 turn from its long-term average spread to peers. More below the fold.  

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

India

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vedanta Ltd (VEDL US)

(Mostly) Asia M&A: June 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in June was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~32% (89 deals & total dal...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

JSPL- Shareholder Activism Gains Credence

JSPL in yet another contestable decision by the founders, face scrutiny in form of rising shareholder activism with the decision to sell off its...

Nitin Mangal

Last Week in Event SPACE: Singapore Press, Tabcorp, Invesco Office, Justbon, IHH Healthcare, JD.com

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead

VEDL has been a rocket the last several months. And it still "owes" dividends of ~Rs 24/share to its shareholders. HZL results were salutary, but...

Travis Lundy

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