ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. </li>
<li>The Past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a>, as well as an initial view on Pertamina Geothermal's IPO.</li>
<li>In addition, there was commentary South East Asia's Food Delivery business plus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a>'s plans to unlock value through an IPO of Olam Agri, and a lot more. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia. 
The Past week saw insights on Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ), Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB), as well as an initial view on Pertamina Geothermal's IPO.
In addition, there was commentary South East Asia's Food Delivery business plus Olam Group (OLG SP)'s plans to unlock value through an IPO of Olam Agri, and a lot more. 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Semen Indonesia Solid, Kalbe for Longer, and CPALL's Ticking

Equity Bottom-Up

Semen Indonesia (Gresik) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia</a> came through the worst of 2022 with flat sales, despite lower volumes, with profits rising by +18.9%, driven by cost savings, reduced debt, and use of DMO coal.</li>
<li>4Q2022 may see a slowdown given. the onset of the rainy season but the company is well-positioned to ride a recovery in 2023 with additional capacity from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-baturaja-persero-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12375:1" rel="noopener">Semen Baturaja.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ)</a> is well set up for a recovery in earnings for the next two years, with great synergies to come from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-baturaja-persero-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12375:1" rel="noopener">Semen Baturaja.</a> Valuations are well-below historic.</li>
</ul>



Semen Indonesia came through the worst of 2022 with flat sales, despite lower volumes, with profits rising by +18.9%, driven by cost savings, reduced debt, and use of DMO coal.
4Q2022 may see a slowdown given. the onset of the rainy season but the company is well-positioned to ride a recovery in 2023 with additional capacity from Semen Baturaja.


Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) is well set up for a recovery in earnings for the next two years, with great synergies to come from Semen Baturaja. Valuations are well-below historic.


Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) -  A Set Up with New Capacity and Lower Costs

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)</a> has had a tough year with rising energy costs prompting price increases which impacted demand but 3Q2022 saw a strong rebound in sales growth.</li>
<li>Margins remained under pressure but increasing prices and the use of alternative fuels are helping to offset the impact of energy costs and more recently coal prices have been declining. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement</a> continues to impress with its focus on sustainability, significantly beating on emissions and dust. Valuations look attractive versus history and with a potential recovery in earnings in 2023.</li>
</ul>



Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) has had a tough year with rising energy costs prompting price increases which impacted demand but 3Q2022 saw a strong rebound in sales growth.
Margins remained under pressure but increasing prices and the use of alternative fuels are helping to offset the impact of energy costs and more recently coal prices have been declining. 

Indocement continues to impress with its focus on sustainability, significantly beating on emissions and dust. Valuations look attractive versus history and with a potential recovery in earnings in 2023.


Indocement (INTP IJ) - Increasing Reach, Reducing Costs, and Improving Sustainability

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The MTO in relation to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-miguel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1" rel="noopener">San Miguel (SMC PM)</a>’s acquisition of 88.50% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>’s shares is open. The MTO will end on 5 December. </li>
<li>The MTO price is PHP22.02. The net MTO price after deducting the selling charges (0.621% of value) is estimated to be PHP21.8833. </li>
<li>At the current price and for the 14 December payment, the gross and annualised spread to the net MTO price is 1.8% and 19.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The MTO in relation to San Miguel (SMC PM)’s acquisition of 88.50% of Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)’s shares is open. The MTO will end on 5 December. 
The MTO price is PHP22.02. The net MTO price after deducting the selling charges (0.621% of value) is estimated to be PHP21.8833. 
At the current price and for the 14 December payment, the gross and annualised spread to the net MTO price is 1.8% and 19.2%, respectively.


Eagle Cement (EAGLE PM) MTO Open, Closing on 5 December

<ul>
<li>The regulator will not review <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-miguel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22728:1" rel="noopener">San Miguel (SMC PM)</a>’s SPA with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eagle-cement-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31217:1" rel="noopener">Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)</a>’s selling shareholders to acquire their combined 88.50% stake at PHP22.02 per share.</li>
<li>We expected approval as the PCC, the regulator, previously viewed San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group. The next step is the execution of a definitive agreement.</li>
<li>The approval paves the way for an MTO of the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02, likely next month. At the last close, the spread to the offer is 6.1%.</li>
</ul>


The regulator will not review San Miguel (SMC PM)’s SPA with Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM)’s selling shareholders to acquire their combined 88.50% stake at PHP22.02 per share.
We expected approval as the PCC, the regulator, previously viewed San Miguel and ECC as part of the same group. The next step is the execution of a definitive agreement.
The approval paves the way for an MTO of the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02, likely next month. At the last close, the spread to the offer is 6.1%.


Eagle Cement: Regulatory Approval Paves the Way for San Miguel’s MTO at PHP22.02

Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Semen Indonesia Solid, Kalbe for Longer, and CPALL's Ticking

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) - A Set Up with New Capacity and Lower Costs

Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ) is well set up for a recovery in earnings for the next two years, with great synergies to come from Semen Baturaja....

Angus Mackintosh

Indocement (INTP IJ) - Increasing Reach, Reducing Costs, and Improving Sustainability

Indocement continues to impress with its focus on sustainability, significantly beating on emissions and dust. Valuations look attractive with a...

Angus Mackintosh

Eagle Cement (EAGLE PM) MTO Open, Closing on 5 December

The net MTO price after deducting charges is PHP21.8833. At the current price and for the 14 December payment, the gross and annualised spread to...

Arun George

Eagle Cement: Regulatory Approval Paves the Way for San Miguel’s MTO at PHP22.02

The approval paves the way for an MTO of the remaining 11.50% minority shares at PHP22.02, likely next month. At the last close, the spread to the...

Arun George

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