External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>INTP recorded net profit of Rp2tr in FY24 (+3% yoy, 125% of ours/cons, or above), due to strong EBIT and higher associate income.</li><li>We reaffirm 1%-2% vol growth and ASP assumption for FY25F/FY26F, yet we expect higher RDF usage on Grobogan to lower energy cost.</li><li>We lifted our FY25F/26F EPS by 17%/16% due to opex saving. Reiterate Buy rating with lower TP (Rp8,500) due to our lower LT growth assumption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INTP recorded net profit of Rp2tr in FY24 (+3% yoy, 125% of ours/cons, or above), due to strong EBIT and higher associate income.We reaffirm 1%-2% vol growth and ASP assumption for FY25F/FY26F, yet we expect higher RDF usage on Grobogan to lower energy cost.We lifted our FY25F/26F EPS by 17%/16% due to opex saving. Reiterate Buy rating with lower TP (Rp8,500) due to our lower LT growth assumption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP.IJ) FY24 Earnings Beat, but Remain Cautiously Optimistic in FY25

<ul><li>INTP recorded an in line 9M24 net profit (66%/68% of our/consensus est), driven by cost efficiency despite lower ASP on a qoq basis.</li><li>We revised up our FY24-FY26F EPS by 0%-2.5%, driven by cost efficiency, esp. on energy cost and transportation, despite lower ASP.</li><li>We reiterate our BUY rating for INTP with a TP of Rp8,800. Semen Merdeka’ pricing is a catalyst to be observed in determining ASP trend.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INTP recorded an in line 9M24 net profit (66%/68% of our/consensus est), driven by cost efficiency despite lower ASP on a qoq basis.We revised up our FY24-FY26F EPS by 0%-2.5%, driven by cost efficiency, esp. on energy cost and transportation, despite lower ASP.We reiterate our BUY rating for INTP with a TP of Rp8,800. Semen Merdeka’ pricing is a catalyst to be observed in determining ASP trend.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

INTP IJ - Finetuning FY24-25 Est. On Lower ASP yet Higher Opex Efficiency

<ul><li>Though the detailed scheme on 3mn housing is not yet clear, INTP believes the program may boost demand for both bag and bulk.</li><li>KN construction is still ongoing at a slower pace post- Aug 17th ceremony, but other infra projects are still ongoing and pushing bulk sales vol.</li><li>We reiterate BUY on INTP with a TP of Rp8,800. 3mn housing scheme should bring a brighter outlook on LT cement vol. demand.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Though the detailed scheme on 3mn housing is not yet clear, INTP believes the program may boost demand for both bag and bulk.KN construction is still ongoing at a slower pace post- Aug 17th ceremony, but other infra projects are still ongoing and pushing bulk sales vol.We reiterate BUY on INTP with a TP of Rp8,800. 3mn housing scheme should bring a brighter outlook on LT cement vol. demand.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa - KTA from Concall: A More Promising Outlook

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk manufactures cement and building materials. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures and processes ready-mix cement as well as owns and manages properties and hotels.

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Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ)