Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Galaxy Securities (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of small cap stocks within Emerging Markets.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~45% and in a one-way trade of US$1.24bn. There are ~300 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
With only 4 trading days to implementation, there could be large moves on stocks with large flows and impact over the next few days.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.</li><li>While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.</li><li>This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.While the US headline Aug CPI is expected to increase, core inflation is expected to maintain its trend of subdued readings.This more stable narrative regarding monetary policy has the potential to alleviate the recent market volatility which led to a weaker IDR on a stronger DXY, rising government bond yields, and the continuation of outflows from the equity market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including Indonesia</li><li>While China's weak growth is a concern, the impact might be offset by better growth in other G20 economies, supporting the narrative of a soft landing towards the year-end, which may help mitigate potential volatility in asset prices</li><li>Domestic economic activity has been lacklustre, with more companies reporting lower-than-expected results</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including IndonesiaWhile China's weak growth is a concern, the impact might be offset by better growth in other G20 economies, supporting the narrative of a soft landing towards the year-end, which may help mitigate potential volatility in asset pricesDomestic economic activity has been lacklustre, with more companies reporting lower-than-expected resultsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Not All Is Well

<ul><li>Glimpse of RecoveryThere were some encouraging signs of brisker economic activity in May, with higher loans growth of 9.4% (vs April 8.1%) and M2 Money Supply growth of 6.6% (vs April 5.5%)</li><li>A lower fiscal surplus in May also indicated higher government spending activity</li><li>We anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable rates</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glimpse of RecoveryThere were some encouraging signs of brisker economic activity in May, with higher loans growth of 9.4% (vs April 8.1%) and M2 Money Supply growth of 6.6% (vs April 5.5%)A lower fiscal surplus in May also indicated higher government spending activityWe anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable ratesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Glimpse of Recovery

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement</a> overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market, where it also benefited from the contribution from its Maros plant. </li>
<li>The company kept costs under control with 100% use of DMO coal during 1Q2023 despite the lower use of alternative fuels due to heavy rains and margins consequently improved. </li>
<li>There is still some lingering cost pressure from gypsum and kraft paper but these are expected to subside by 2H2023, with Indocement's volumes expected to increase +15-20% as demand recovers.</li>
</ul>



Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market, where it also benefited from the contribution from its Maros plant. 
The company kept costs under control with 100% use of DMO coal during 1Q2023 despite the lower use of alternative fuels due to heavy rains and margins consequently improved. 
There is still some lingering cost pressure from gypsum and kraft paper but these are expected to subside by 2H2023, with Indocement's volumes expected to increase +15-20% as demand recovers.


Indonesia

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures cement including portland cement, oil well cement, and mixed cement. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and operates an industrial estate, mines limestone and clay, and packages and distributes cement.

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Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)

WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index Rebalance: 45% Turnover & US$2.5bn to Trade

There are 364 adds/325 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Index. One-way turnover is 45% resulting in a one-way trade of...

Brian Freitas

Macro Strategy & Flows Trackers: More Signals

The main takeaways from the most recent Fed Beige Book suggest moderating economic growth in recent months, implying a Fed pause.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Not All Is Well

The global manufacturing sector depicted some positive signs in July, with more countries reporting stronger activity, including Indonesia

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Glimpse of Recovery

We anticipate improvements in the banking sector's intermediary function, supported by ample liquidity and favourable rates

BRI Danareksa Research

Indocement (INTP IJ) - A Bulky Take Off

Indocement overperformed the overall Indonesian cement market in 1Q2023 in terms of growth, especially in the bulk market. 2H2023 is expected to...

Angus Mackintosh

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